A5038101556- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
- Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)
- Philosophy and Theoretical Science
- Computational Physics and Python Applications
- Climate change and permafrost
- Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics
- Seismology and Earthquake Studies
- Reservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods
- Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Scientific Computing and Data Management
Colorado State University
2016-2025
Stanford University
2024
University of Washington
2007-2023
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences
2022
University of Minnesota
2007-2022
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2020
OpenAI (United States)
2020
University Hospitals of Derby and Burton NHS Foundation Trust
2019
Descartes Labs (United States)
2018
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
2017
We introduce Codex, a GPT language model fine-tuned on publicly available code from GitHub, and study its Python code-writing capabilities. A distinct production version of Codex powers GitHub Copilot. On HumanEval, new evaluation set we release to measure functional correctness for synthesizing programs docstrings, our solves 28.8% the problems, while GPT-3 0% GPT-J 11.4%. Furthermore, find that repeated sampling is surprisingly effective strategy producing working solutions difficult...
The Arctic lower atmosphere has warmed more rapidly than that of the globe as a whole, and this been accompanied by unprecedented sea ice melt. Such large environmental changes are already having profound impacts on flora, fauna, inhabitants region. An open question, however, is whether these have an effect jet‐stream thereby influence weather patterns farther south. This broad question recently received lot scientific media attention, but conclusions appear contradictory rather consensual....
Abstract This work documents how the midlatitude, eddy-driven jets respond to climate change using model output from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The authors consider separately North Atlantic, Pacific, and Southern Hemisphere jets. analysis is not limited annual-mean changes in latitude speed jets, but also explores variability each jet with increased greenhouse gases. All are found migrate poleward change: shifts by 2° between historical period end twenty-first...
Previous studies have suggested that Arctic amplification has caused planetary‐scale waves to elongate meridionally and slow down, resulting in more frequent blocking patterns extreme weather. Here trends the meridional extent of atmospheric over North America Atlantic are investigated three reanalyses, it is demonstrated previously reported positive likely an artifact methodology. No significant decrease wave phase speeds found except October‐November‐December, but this trend sensitive...
Abstract There is high demand and a growing expectation for predictions of environmental conditions that go beyond 0–14-day weather forecasts with outlooks extending to one or more seasons beyond. This driven by the needs energy, water management, agriculture sectors, name few. an increasing realization that, unlike forecasts, prediction skill on longer time scales can leverage specific climate phenomena predictable signal above noise. Currently, it understood these are intermittent in have...
Abstract Recent work on atmospheric rivers (ARs) has led to a characterization of these impactful features as primarily cold-season phenomena. Here, an all-season analysis AR incidence in the North Pacific basin is performed for period spanning 1979–2014 using NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis dataset. An occurrence-based detection algorithm developed employed identify characterize ARs instantaneous fields anomalous vertically integrated...
Observed blocking trends are diagnosed to test the hypothesis that recent Arctic warming and sea ice loss has increased likelihood of over Northern Hemisphere. To ensure robust results, we diagnose using three unique identification methods from literature, each applied four different reanalyses. No clear hemispheric increase in is found for any index, while seasonal increases decreases specific isolated regions time periods, there no instance where all agree on a trend. Blocking shown...
Abstract Internal variability in the climate system gives rise to large uncertainty projections of future climate. The due internal can be estimated from ensembles change simulations which experiment setup is same one ensemble member next but for small perturbations initial atmospheric state. However, are invariably computationally expensive and susceptible model bias. Here authors outline an alternative approach assessing role based on a simple analytic statistics unforced variability....
Abstract Recent studies have hypothesized that Arctic amplification, the enhanced warming of region compared to rest globe, will cause changes in midlatitude weather over twenty-first century. This study exploits recently completed phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and examines 27 state-of-the-art climate models determine if their projected circulation are consistent with impact amplification North America Atlantic. Under largest future greenhouse forcing (RCP8.5), it is...
With the recent wave of progress in artificial intelligence (AI) has come a growing awareness large-scale impacts AI systems, and recognition that existing regulations norms industry academia are insufficient to ensure responsible development. In order for developers earn trust from system users, customers, civil society, governments, other stakeholders they building responsibly, will need make verifiable claims which can be held accountable. Those outside given organization also effective...
Abstract The persistent and quasi-stationary nature of atmospheric blocking is associated with long-lasting extreme weather conditions that influence much the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter. Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) has been previously shown to important factors for blocking, including Rossby wave breaking North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However, extent which MJO influences across not yet fully understood. Utilizing a two-dimensional index, composites Pacific, Atlantic,...
Abstract Many problems in climate science require extracting forced signals from a background of internal variability. We demonstrate that artificial neural networks (ANNs) are useful addition to the “toolbox” for this purpose. Specifically, patterns detected by an ANN trained on model simulations under historical and future scenarios. By identifying spatial serve as indicators change surface temperature precipitation, can determine approximate year which came without first explicitly...
Leveraging artificial neural networks (ANNs) trained on climate model output, we use the spatial pattern of historical temperature observations to predict time until critical global warming thresholds are reached. Although no used during training, validation, or testing, ANNs accurately timing from maps annual temperature. The central estimate for 1.5 °C threshold is between 2033 and 2035, including a ±1σ range 2028 2039 in Intermediate (SSP2-4.5) forcing scenario, consistent with previous...
Despite the increasingly successful application of neural networks to many problems in geosciences, their complex and nonlinear structure makes interpretation predictions difficult, which limits model trust does not allow scientists gain physical insights about problem at hand. Many different methods have been introduced emerging field eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), aim attributing network s prediction specific features input domain. XAI are usually assessed by using benchmark...
In this paper, I argue for a new way of characterizing ontological emergence. appeal to recent discussions in meta-ontology regarding fundamentality and dependence, show how emergence can be simply straightforwardly characterized using these notions. then that many the standard problems do not apply account: given clearly specified meta-ontological background, becomes much easier explicate. If my arguments are successful, they both helpful thinking about potential utility when applied...
Abstract Upon landfall, atmospheric rivers (ARs)—plumes of intense water vapor transport—often trigger weather and hydrologic extremes. Presently, no guidance is available to alert decision makers anomalous AR activity within the subseasonal time scale (~2–5 weeks). Here, we construct evaluate an empirical prediction scheme for based solely on initial state two prominent modes tropical variability: Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) quasi-biennial (QBO). The MJO—the dominant mode intraseasonal...
Abstract The transport of moisture into the Arctic is tightly connected to midlatitude dynamics. We show that bulk transient poleward across 60°N driven by extreme (fluxes greater than 90th percentile) events. demonstrate these events are closely related two types Rossby wave breaking (RWB)—anticyclonic (AWB) and cyclonic (CWB). Using a RWB tracking algorithm, we determine can account for approximately 68% transients in winter 56% summer. Additional analysis suggests seasonality such...