A5047188055- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Geochemistry and Geologic Mapping
- Fire effects on ecosystems
- Climate variability and models
- Wind and Air Flow Studies
- Geological and Geochemical Analysis
Met Office
2021-2024
Abstract. Between 27 June and 14 July 2019 aerosol layers were observed by the United Kingdom (UK) Raman lidar network in upper troposphere lower stratosphere. The arrival of these late caused some concern within London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) as according to dispersion simulations volcanic plume from 21 eruption Raikoke was not expected over UK until early July. Using Met Office Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME), supporting evidence satellite situ...
Abstract. Volcanic ash advisories are produced by specialised forecasters who combine several sources of observational data and volcanic dispersion model outputs based on their subjective expertise. These used the aviation industry to make decisions about where it is safe fly. However, both observations simulations subject various uncertainties that not represented in operational forecasts. Quantification communication these fundamental for making more informed decisions. Here, we develop a...
Abstract. Due to the remote location of many volcanoes, there is substantial uncertainty about timing, amount and vertical distribution volcanic ash released when they erupt. One approach determine these properties combine prior estimates with satellite retrievals simulations from atmospheric dispersion models create posterior emission estimates, constrained by both observations using a technique known as source inversion. However, results are dependent not only on accuracy assumptions,...
Abstract The London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) provides forecasts on the expected presence of volcanic ash in atmosphere to mitigate risk aviation. It is fundamentally important that operational capability regularly tested through exercises, guarantee an effective response event. We have developed exercises which practise pull-through scientific advice into VAAC, forecast evaluation process, and decision-making procedures discussions needed for generating best possible under...
Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) have generated volcanic ash forecasts for the aviation industry since mid-1990s. The excellent spatial and temporal coverage of satellite data make them critical to validation dispersion model forecasts. This study investigates limitations satellite-retrieved through production simulated radiances a range cloud properties encompassing retrieval’s sensitivity. We run detection retrieval algorithm (Francis et al., 2012,...
Abstract. Consideration of uncertainty in volcanic ash cloud forecasts is increasingly interest, with an industry goal to provide probabilistic alongside deterministic forecasts. Simulations clouds via dispersion modelling are subject a number uncertainties relating the eruption itself (mass emitted and when), parameterisations physical processes, meteorological conditions. To fully explore these through atmospheric model simulations alone may be expensive, instead, emulator can used...
Abstract Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) have generated volcanic ash forecasts for the aviation industry since mid‐1990s. The excellent spatial and temporal coverage of satellite data makes them critical to validation dispersion model forecasts. This study investigates limitations satellite‐retrieved through production simulated radiances a range cloud properties encompassing retrieval's sensitivity. We run detection retrieval algorithm (Francis et al., 2012,...
Abstract. Consideration of uncertainty in volcanic ash cloud forecasts is increasingly interest, with an industry goal to provide probabilistic alongside deterministic forecasts. Simulations clouds via dispersion modelling are subject a number uncertainties, relating the eruption itself (mass emitted, and when), parametrisations physical processes, meteorological conditions. To fully explore these uncertainties through atmospheric model simulations alone may be expensive, instead emulator...
Abstract. Volcanic ash advisories are produced by specialised forecasters who combine several sources of observational data and volcanic dispersion model outputs based on their subjective expertise. These used the aviation industry to make decisions about where it is safe fly. However, both observations simulations subject various uncertainties that not represented in operational forecasts. Quantification communication these fundamental for making more informed decisions. Here, we develop a...
Abstract. Between 27 June and 14 July 2019 aerosol layers were observed by the United Kingdom (UK) Raman lidar network in upper troposphere lower stratosphere. The arrival of these late caused some concern within London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) as according to dispersion simulations volcanic plume from 21 eruption Raikoke was not expected over UK until early July. Using Met Office Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME), supporting evidence satellite in-situ...
Abstract. Due to the remote location of many volcanoes, there is large uncertainty in timing, amount and vertical distribution volcanic ash released when they erupt. One approach determine these properties combine prior estimates with satellite retrievals simulations from atmospheric dispersion models create posterior emissions constrained by both observations using a technique known as source inversion. However, results are dependent not only on accuracy assumptions, model used but also...