A5013705801- Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
- Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Evolutionary Game Theory and Cooperation
- Animal Ecology and Behavior Studies
- Climate variability and models
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Plant and animal studies
- Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Insect symbiosis and bacterial influences
- Mycobacterium research and diagnosis
- Tuberculosis Research and Epidemiology
- Zoonotic diseases and public health
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Metal complexes synthesis and properties
- Yersinia bacterium, plague, ectoparasites research
- Geological formations and processes
- Peatlands and Wetlands Ecology
- Magnetism in coordination complexes
- Insect and Pesticide Research
- Viral Infections and Vectors
- Plant responses to elevated CO2
- Insect and Arachnid Ecology and Behavior
- Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences
2010-2024
Heriot-Watt University
2012-2024
Virginia Commonwealth University
2023-2024
Oak Ridge Associated Universities
2024
U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center
2024
United States Army
2024
Gloucestershire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust
2014
Google (United States)
2013
University of Bedfordshire
2011
Unilever (United Kingdom)
2011
Summary The possible responses of ecosystem processes to rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration and climate change are illustrated using six dynamic global vegetation models that explicitly represent the interactions carbon water exchanges with dynamics. driven by IPCC IS92a scenario ( Wigley et al . 1991 ), changes resulting from effective concentrations corresponding IS92a, simulated coupled ocean atmosphere model HadCM2‐SUL. Simulations changing alone show a widely distributed terrestrial...
Tolerance to parasites reduces the harm that infection causes host (virulence). Here we investigate evolution of in response tolerance. We show may evolve either higher or lower within-host growth rates depending on nature tolerance mechanism. If virulence by a constant factor, parasite is always selected increase its rate. Alternatively, if nonlinear manner such it less effective at reducing damage caused rates, this select for faster slower replicating parasites. able completely tolerate...
Tolerance and resistance provide hosts with two distinct defense strategies against parasitism. In the "fight" parasite directly, whereas in tolerance fight disease by ameliorating damage that infection causes. There is increasing recognition mechanisms may exhibit very different evolutionary behaviors. Although empirical work has often noted considerable variance within hosts, theory predicted fixation of due to positive frequency dependence through a feedback prevalence. Here we reconcile...
There is a wide variety of resistance mechanisms that hosts may evolve in response to their parasites. These can be functionally classified as avoidance (lower probability becoming infected), recovery (faster rate clearance), tolerance (reduced death when or acquired immunity. It commonly thought longer lived organisms should invest more costly resistance. We show due epidemiological feedbacks the situation often complex. Using evolutionary theory we examine how optimal investment varies...
Summary A dynamic, global vegetation model, hybrid v4.1 ( Friend et al . 1997 ), was driven by transient climate output from the UK Hadley Centre GCM (HadCM2) with IS92a scenario of increasing atmospheric CO 2 equivalent, sulphate aerosols and predicted patterns N deposition. Changes in areas types carbon storage biomass soils were for north 50°N 1860 to 2100. Hybrid is a combined biogeochemical, biophysical biogeographical model natural, potential ecosystems. The effect periodic boreal...
We combine model results with field data for a system of wolves (Canis lupus) that prey on wild boar (Sus scrofa), wildlife reservoir tuberculosis, to examine how predation may contribute disease control in multi-host systems. Results show can lead marked reduction the prevalence infection without leading host population density since mortality due be compensated by induced mortality. A key finding therefore is harbours virulent regulated at similar high or low prevalence. Predators provide...
Coastal communities commonly rely upon foredunes as the first line of defense against sea-level rise and storms, thus requiring management guidance to optimize their protective services. Here, we use AeoLiS model simulate wind-driven accretion wave-driven erosion patterns on with different morphologies ecological properties under modern-day conditions. Additional sets runs mimic potential future climate changes inform how both morphological may have differing contributions net dune evolving...
Summary A nonequilibrium, dynamic, global vegetation model, Hybrid v4.1, with a subdaily timestep, was driven by increasing CO 2 and transient climate output from the UK Hadley Centre GCM (HadCM2) simulated daily interannual variability. Three IPCC emission scenarios were used: (i) IS92a, giving 790 ppm 2100, (ii) stabilization at 750 2225, (iii) 550 2150. Land use future N deposition not included. In IS92a scenario, boreal tropical lands warmed 4.5 °C 2100 rainfall decreased in parts of...
Many parasites and pathogens cause silent/covert infections in addition to the more obvious infectious disease-causing pathology. Here, we consider how assumptions concerning superinfection, protection seasonal host birth transmission rates affect evolution of such covert as a parasite strategy. Regardless whether there is vertical infection or effects on sterility, overt always disadvantageous relatively constant populations unless it provides from superinfection. If are protective, all...
Seasonality is an important component in many population systems, and factors such as latitude, altitude proximity to the coastline affect extent of seasonal fluctuations. In this paper, we ask how changes fluctuations impact on cycles. We use Fennoscandian vole system a case study, focusing variations length breeding season. predator-prey model that includes generalist specialist predation alongside forcing. Using combination bifurcation analysis direct simulations, consider effects varying...
The ability of a mechanistically based dynamic terrestrial ecosystem model, Hybrid v4.1, to predict the global distribution vegetation, primary productivity, biomass carbon, and soil carbon under preindustrial conditions climate, atmospheric CO 2 , nitrogen deposition is evaluated. This model predicts eight Plant Functional Types (PFTs) by treating interactions between individual trees, an herbaceous layer, their physical environment at independent points on land surface. Carbon, water,...
Hosts are often infected by a variety of different parasites, leading to competition for hosts and coevolution between parasite species. There is increasing evidence that some vertically transmitted parasitic symbionts may protect their from further infection this protection be an important reason persistence in nature. Here, we examine theoretically when likely evolve its selective effects on other parasites. Our key result most response horizontally parasites cause significant reduction...
We examine in detail how epidemiological feedbacks combine with costs and benefits to determine the evolution of resistance by systematically analysing continuously stable strategies (CSS) for different host-parasite frameworks. The mode (innate versus acquired), nature host (i.e. life-history immunological memory) disease (effects on fertility or mortality) all impact that are critical resistance. By identifying relationships between CSS investment underlying feedback each framework, we...