A5065464579- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Climate variability and models
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Fire effects on ecosystems
- Water Quality and Resources Studies
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
- Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
- Wind and Air Flow Studies
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Environmental Changes in China
- Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Landslides and related hazards
- Underwater Acoustics Research
- Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies
- Advanced Computational Techniques and Applications
- Soil Moisture and Remote Sensing
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
2018-2025
University of California, San Diego
2019-2025
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction
2020
University of Colorado Boulder
2020
NOAA Environmental Modeling Center
2020
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research
2020
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
2020
Plymouth State University
2020
Stony Brook University
2012-2017
Abstract Extratropical cyclones (ECs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs) impact precipitation over the U.S. West Coast other analogous regions globally. This study investigates relationship between ECs ARs by exploring connections EC strength AR intensity position using a new scale. While 82% of are associated with an EC, only 45% have paired distance varies greatly. Roughly 20% (defined vertically integrated water vapor transport) occur without nearby EC. These usually close to...
Abstract Water management and flood control are major challenges in the western United States. They heavily influenced by atmospheric river (AR) storms that produce both beneficial water supply hazards; for example, 84% of all damages West (up to 99% key areas) associated with ARs. However, AR landfall forecast position errors can exceed 200 km at even 1-day lead time yet many watersheds <100 across, which contributes issues such as 2017 Oroville Dam spillway incident regularly large...
Abstract The climatological storm-track activity simulated by 17 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)/phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) models is compared to that in interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). Nearly half show significant biases amplitude: four simulate storm tracks are either significantly (&gt;20%) too strong or weak both hemispheres, while other have interhemispheric ratios biased over 10%. Consistent...
Abstract This paper applies ensemble sensitivity analysis to a U.S. East Coast snowstorm on 26–28 December 2010 in way that may be beneficial for an operational forecaster better understand the forecast uncertainties. Sensitivity using principal components of leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) 50-member European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) identifies sensitive regions and weather systems at earlier times associated with cyclone intensity track uncertainty...
Abstract In this study, ensemble sensitivity analysis has been applied to examine the evolution of two extreme extratropical cyclones over Pacific. Sensitivity using, as forecast metrics, cyclone minimum pressure and location, well principal components (PCs) leading EOFs in SLP variations near center, computed for medium-range forecasts up 7.5 days. Results presented here show that coherent patterns can be tracked from validation time back at least day −6, with signal exhibiting downstream...
The Atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) represent horizontal wind derived by tracking the cloud or water vapor features on successive satellite images. launch of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Series (GOES-R), including GOES-16 (GOES-East) and GOES-17 (GOES-West), significantly enhanced data volume geographic coverage over contiguous U.S. adjacent oceans. AMVs from GOES-16/17 products can augment in data-sparse areas like oceanic atmospheric rivers (ARs). However, exhibit...
Abstract Conventional observations of atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the northeastern Pacific Ocean are sparse. Satellite radiances affected by presence clouds and heavy precipitation, which impact their distribution in lower atmosphere precipitating areas. The goal this study is to document a data gap existing ARs Pacific, investigate how targeted field campaign called AR Reconnaissance (AR Recon) can effectively fill gap. When reconnaissance excluded, there regions from near surface middle...
Abstract During a 6-day intensive observing period in January 2021, Atmospheric River Reconnaissance (AR Recon) aircraft sampled series of atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the northeastern Pacific that caused heavy precipitation coastal California and Sierra Nevada. Using these observations, data denial experiments were conducted with regional modeling assimilation system to explore impacts research flight frequency spatial resolution dropsondes on model analyses forecasts. Results indicate...
Abstract Landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the western US are responsible for ∼30%–50% of annual precipitation, and their accurate forecasts essential aiding water management decisions reducing flood risks. Sparse coverage conventional observations Pacific Ocean, which can cause inadequate upstream initial conditions numerical weather prediction models, may limit improvement forecast skill these events. A targeted field program called AR Reconnaissance (Recon) was initiated in 2016...
Abstract Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and fuzzy clustering tools were applied to generate validate scenarios in operational ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) for U.S. East Coast winter storms. The National Centers Environmental Prediction (NCEP), European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Canadian Meteorological (CMC) EPSs validated their ability capture the analysis historical cyclone cases at lead times of 1–9 days. ECMWF has best performance medium- extended-range...
Abstract Variations in the water vapor that atmospheric rivers (ARs) carry toward North America within Pacific storms strongly modulates spatiotemporal distribution of west‐coast precipitation. The “AR Recon” program was established to improve forecasts landfalling Pacific‐coast ARs and their associated Dropsondes are deployed from weather reconnaissance aircraft pressure sensors have been added drifting ocean buoys fill a major gap standard observations, while research is being conducted on...
Abstract This article introduces a method for objectively separating and validating forecast scenarios within large multimodel ensemble the medium-range (3–7 day) forecasts of extratropical cyclones impacting U.S. East Coast. The applies fuzzy clustering to principal components (PCs) empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on mean sea level pressure (MSLP) from 90-member combination global ensembles National Centers Environmental Prediction, Canadian Meteorological Center, European...
Abstract Subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) forecasts of atmospheric rivers (ARs) are in high demand the water supply management and flood control communities. This study focuses on a new metric, accumulated vapor transport associated with ARs, which is closely related to winter precipitation over western U.S., provides multi‐model S2S prediction skill assessment. The evaluated at lead time 1–4 weeks four dynamical model hindcast data sets from National Centers for Environmental Prediction...
Abstract. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the primary mechanism for transporting water vapor from low latitudes to polar regions, playing a significant role in extreme weather both Arctic and Antarctica. With rapidly growing interest ARs during past decade, it is imperative establish an objective framework quantifying strength impact of these scientific research practical applications. The AR scale introduced by Ralph et al. (2019) ranks based on duration conditions intensity integrated...
Abstract Atmospheric River Reconnaissance has held field campaigns during cool seasons since 2016. These have provided thousands of dropsonde data profiles, which are assimilated into multiple global operational numerical weather prediction models. Data denial experiments, conducted by running a parallel set forecasts that exclude the information, allow testing impact on model analyses and subsequent forecasts. Here, we investigate differences in skill between control (with assimilated)...
Abstract. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the primary mechanism for transporting water vapor from low latitudes to polar regions, playing a significant role as drivers of extreme weather, such heavy precipitation and heat waves in both Arctic Antarctica. With rapidly growing interest ARs during past decade, it is imperative establish an objective framework quantify strength impact these scientific research practical application. The AR scale introduced by Ralph et al. (2019) ranks based on...
Abstract. Marine planetary boundary layer (MPBL) water vapor amount and gradient impact the global energy transport through directly affecting sensible latent heat exchange between ocean atmosphere. Yet, it is a well-known challenge for satellite remote sensing to profile MABL vapor, especially when cloud or sharp of are present. Wu et al. (2022) identified good correlations Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) deep refraction signals (SNR) MPBL specific humidity radio occultation (RO)...
Abstract Satellites provide the largest dataset for monitoring earth system and constraining analyses in numerical weather prediction models. A significant challenge utilizing satellite radiances is accurate estimation of their biases. High-accuracy nonradiance data are commonly employed to anchor radiance bias corrections. However, aside from impacts radio occultation stratosphere, influence other types “anchor” observation on assimilation remains unclear. This study provides an assessment...
Earth and Space Science Open Archive This preprint has been submitted to is under consideration at Geophysical Research Letters. ESSOAr a venue for early communication or feedback before peer review. Data may be preliminary.Learn more about preprints preprintOpen AccessYou are viewing the latest version by default [v1]Impact of Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Dropsonde on Assimilation Satellite in GFSAuthorsMinghuaZhengiDLucaDelle MonacheiDXingrenWuBrianKawzenukiDF....