A5079290857- Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Climate Change Communication and Perception
- Biomedical and Engineering Education
- Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Risk Perception and Management
- Mental Health Research Topics
- Forest Management and Policy
- Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Research Data Management Practices
- Conservation, Ecology, Wildlife Education
- Delphi Technique in Research
- Misinformation and Its Impacts
- Biotechnology and Related Fields
- Economic and Environmental Valuation
- scientometrics and bibliometrics research
- Scientific Computing and Data Management
- Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
- Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- CRISPR and Genetic Engineering
- Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Complex Systems and Decision Making
- Environmental DNA in Biodiversity Studies
The University of Melbourne
2015-2024
Sustainable Horizons Institute
2024
University of Cambridge
2016-2019
North Carolina State University
2017
University of Tasmania
2007
Abstract Expert judgement informs a variety of important applications in conservation and natural resource management, including threatened species environmental impact assessment structured decision‐making. However, expert judgements can be prone to contextual biases. Structured elicitation protocols mitigate these biases, improve the accuracy transparency resulting judgements. Despite this, within management remains largely informal. We suggest this may attributed financial practical...
Expert judgements are essential when time and resources stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives large sums of money. Typically, experts defined by their qualifications, track record experience [1], [2]. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded experienced will give better advice. We asked to predict how they perform, peers on sets questions. results indicate the way regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately,...
This is the eighth such annual horizon scan. An international team with expertise in scanning, science communication, and conservation research, practice, policy identified 15 issues, following widespread consultation a Delphi-like scoring process to identify most important. The issues were wide ranging, include sand extraction, blockchain technology, use of robotics combat invasive species, new developments energy storage fuel production. We present results our scan emerging likely affect...
Advances in biological engineering are likely to have substantial impacts on global society. To explore these potential we ran a horizon scanning exercise capture range of perspectives the opportunities and risks presented by engineering. We first identified 70 issues, then used an iterative process prioritise 20 issues that considered be emerging, impact, relatively unknown outside field The may interest researchers, businesses policy makers sectors such as health, energy, agriculture environment.
People interpret verbal expressions of probabilities (e.g. 'very likely') in different ways, yet words are commonly preferred to numbers when communicating uncertainty. Simply providing numerical translations alongside reports or text containing should encourage consistency, but these guidelines often ignored. In an online experiment with 924 participants, we compared four formats for presenting the used US Intelligence Community Directive (ICD) 203 see whether any could improve...
We present a novel classification framework for severe global catastrophic risk scenarios. Extending beyond existing work that identifies individual scenarios, we propose analysing risks along three dimensions: the critical systems affected, spread mechanisms, and prevention mitigation failures. The highlights areas of convergence between which supports prioritisation particular research policy interventions. It also points to potential knowledge gaps regarding risks, provides an...
Recent replication projects in other disciplines have uncovered disturbingly low levels of reproducibility, suggesting that those research literatures may contain unverifiable claims. The conditions contributing to irreproducibility are also present ecology. These include a large discrepancy between the proportion "positive" or "significant" results and average statistical power empirical research, incomplete reporting sampling stopping rules results, journal policies discourage studies,...
Abstract Illegal wildlife trade is gaining prominence as a threat to biodiversity, but addressing it remains challenging. To help inform proactive policy responses in the face of uncertainty, 2018 we conducted horizon scan significant emerging issues. We built upon existing iterative scanning methods, using an open and global participatory approach evaluate rank issues from diverse range sources. Prioritized related three themes: developments biological, information, financial technologies;...
Expert judgement is pervasive in all forms of risk analysis, yet the development tools to deal with such judgements a repeatable and transparent fashion relatively recent. This work outlines new findings related an approach expert elicitation termed IDEA protocol. combines psychologically robust interactions among experts mathematical aggregation individual estimates. In particular, this research explores whether communication adversely effects reliability group Using data from estimates...
As replications of individual studies are resource intensive, techniques for predicting the replicability required. We introduce repliCATS (Collaborative Assessments Trustworthy Science) process, a new method eliciting expert predictions about research. This process is structured elicitation approach based on modified Delphi technique applied to evaluation research claims in social and behavioural sciences. The utility processes predict their capacity test scientific without costs full...
In risky situations characterized by imminent decisions, scarce resources, and insufficient data, policymakers rely on experts to estimate model parameters their associated uncertainties. Different elicitation aggregation methods can vary substantially in efficacy robustness. While it is generally agreed that biases expert judgments be mitigated using structured elicitations involving groups rather than individuals, there still some disagreement about how best elicit aggregate judgments....
Assessing the credibility of research claims is a central, continuous, and laborious part scientific process. Credibility assessment strategies range from expert judgment to aggregating existing evidence systematic replication efforts. Such assessments can require substantial time effort. Research progress could be accelerated if there were rapid, scalable, accurate indicators guide attention resource allocation for further assessment. The SCORE program creating validating algorithms provide...
Summary In field surveys, ecological researchers and practitioners routinely make quantitative judgements that are known to vary in quality. Feedback about judgement accuracy is crucial for improving estimation performance yet not usually afforded fieldworkers. One reason it rare lies the difficulty of obtaining ‘true values’ (e.g. percentage cover) learn from. Often, only information we can access other people's estimates same thing. Group average tend be remarkably accurate. By extension,...
Horizon scanning is intended to identify the opportunities and threats associated with technological, regulatory social change. In 2017 some of present authors conducted a horizon scan for bioengineering (Wintle et al., 2017). Here we report results new that based on inputs from larger more international group 38 participants. The final list 20 issues includes topics spanning political (the regulation genomic data, increased philanthropic funding malicious uses neurochemicals) environmental...
Structured protocols offer a transparent and systematic way to elicit combine/aggregate, probabilistic predictions from multiple experts. These judgements can be aggregated behaviourally or mathematically derive final group prediction. Mathematical rules (e.g., weighted linear combinations of judgments) provide an objective approach aggregation. The quality this aggregation defined in terms accuracy, calibration informativeness. measures used compare different approaches help decide on which...
Abstract In 2008, a group of conservation scientists compiled list 100 priority questions for the world's biodiversity. However, now almost decade later, no one has yet published study gauging how much progress been made in addressing these high‐priority peer‐reviewed literature. We took first step toward reexamining to identify key knowledge gaps that remain. Through combination questionnaire and literature review, we evaluated each question on basis 2 criteria: relevance effort. defined...
This paper explores judgements about the replicability of social and behavioural sciences research, what drives those judgements. Using a mixed methods approach, it draws on qualitative quantitative data elicited using structured iterative approach for eliciting from groups, called IDEA protocol (‘Investigate’, ‘Discuss’, ‘Estimate’ ‘Aggregate’). Five groups five people separately assessed 25 ‘known-outcome’ claims. That is, science claims that have already been subject to at least one...
This paper explores judgements about the replicability of social and behavioural sciences research what drives those judgements. Using a mixed methods approach, it draws on qualitative quantitative data elicited from groups using structured approach called IDEA protocol ('investigate', 'discuss', 'estimate' 'aggregate'). Five five people with relevant domain expertise evaluated 25 claims that were subject to at least one replication study. Participants assessed probability each would...
Abstract The topic of advocacy by scientists has been debated for decades, yet there is little agreement about whether can or should be advocates. fear crossing a line into continues to hold many back from contributing public discourse, impoverishing debate important issues. We believe that progress in this limited misconception the relationship between scientific integrity and objectivity. begin unpacking debunking three common misconceptions scientists: namely, harmful credibility, beyond...
Abstract The nature of conservation challenges can foster a reactive, rather than proactive approach to decision making. Failure anticipate problems before they escalate results in the need for more costly and time‐consuming solutions. Proactive requires forward‐looking approaches making that consider possible futures without being overly constrained by past. Strategic foresight provides structured process considering most desirable future mapping efficient effective promoting with tools...