1 Abstract Europe is now considered as the epicenter of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, France being among most impacted country. In France, there an increasing concern regarding capacity healthcare system to sustain outbreak, especially intensive care units (ICU). The aim this study was estimate dynamics epidemic in and assess its impact on resources for each French metropolitan Region. We developed a deterministic, age-structured, Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model based catchment...

1 Abstract On March 16 2020, French authorities ordered a large scale lockdown to counter the COVID-19 epidemic wave rising in country, stopping non-essential economic, educational, and entertainment activities, maintaining mainly food retailers healthcare institutions. One month later, number of new hospitalizations ICU admissions had reached plateau were beginning slow descent. We developed spatialized, deterministic, age-structured, compartmental SARS-CoV-2 transmission model able...

Short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 pandemic is required to facilitate planning health care demand in hospitals. Here, we evaluate performance 12 individual models and 19 predictors anticipate French COVID-19-related needs from September 7, 2020, March 6, 2021. We then build an ensemble model by combining forecasts retrospectively test this 2021, July find that inclusion early (epidemiological, mobility, meteorological predictors) can halve rms error for 14-d–ahead forecasts, with...

The roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines is a multi-faceted challenge whose performance depends on pace vaccination, vaccine characteristics and heterogeneities in individual risks.

Abstract Background Seasonal influenza epidemics have a substantial public health and economic burden, which can be alleviated through vaccination. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends 75% vaccination coverage rate (VCR) in: older adults (aged ≥ 65 years), individuals with chronic conditions, pregnant women, children aged 6–24 months healthcare workers. However, no European country achieves this target in all risk groups. In study, potential benefits achieved by reaching VCR was...

Prior economic evaluations of adult and adolescent vaccination strategies against pertussis have reached disparate conclusions. Using static approaches only, previous studies failed to analytically include the indirect benefits derived from herd immunity as well impact on evolution disease incidence over time.We assessed different using a dynamic compartmental model able consider transmission. We then combined results with data estimate relative cost-effectiveness immunization for...

Hospital-acquired infections (HAIs), including emerging multi-drug resistant organisms, threaten healthcare systems worldwide. Efficient containment measures of HAIs must mobilize the entire network. Thus, to best understand how reduce potential scale HAI epidemic spread, we explore patient transfer patterns in French system. Using an exhaustive database all hospital discharge summaries France 2014, construct and analyze three networks based on following: transfers patients with...

Abstract To date, no specific estimate of R0 for SARS-CoV-2 is available healthcare settings. Using interindividual contact data, we highlight that estimates from the community cannot translate directly to settings, with pre-pandemic values ranging 1.3–7.7 in 3 illustrative institutions. This has implications nosocomial COVID-19 control.

Abstract Background In France, each year, influenza viruses are responsible for seasonal epidemics leading to 2–6 million cases. Influenza can cause severe disease that may lead hospitalization or death. As be due the virus itself complications, estimating burden of is complex. The present study aimed at epidemiological and economic in France during eight consecutive seasons (2010–2018). Methods Influenza‐related mortality data patient characteristics were taken from French hospital...

ObjectivesHigh-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine (HD-QIV) was introduced during the 2021/22 season in France for adults aged ≥65 years as an alternative to standard-dose vaccines (SD-QIV). The aim of this study is estimate relative effectiveness (rVE) HD-QIV versus SD-QIV against influenza-related hospitalisations France.MethodsCommunity-dwelling individuals with reimbursed claims were included from French national health insurance database. Individuals followed up vaccination day 30 June...

Introduction Vaccination is an effective preventive strategy against influenza. However, current trivalent influenza vaccines ( TIV s) contain only one of the two B lineages that circulate each year. Vaccine mismatches are frequent because predicting which will predominate difficult. Recently licensed quadrivalent QIV containing should address this issue. Our study estimates their impact by assessing what would have been US public health benefit routinely vaccinating with in 2000–2013....

Several countries have implemented lockdowns to control their COVID-19 epidemic. However, questions like "where" and "when" still require answers. We assessed the impact of national regional considering French first epidemic wave as a case study. In lockdown scenario aimed at preventing intensive care units (ICU) saturation, almost all regions would had implement within 10 days 96% ICU capacities been used. For slowly growing epidemics, with lower reproduction number, expected delays between...

We study numerically the variability of outbreak diseases on complex networks. use a SI model to simulate disease spreading at short times, in homogeneous and scale-free In both cases, we effect initial conditions epidemic's dynamics its variability. The results display time regime during which prevalence exhibits large sensitivity noise. also investigate dependence infection nodes' degree distance seed. particular, show that hubs have fluctuations limit their reliability as early-detection...

In this paper, the authors develop a method of detecting correlations between epidemic patterns in different regions that are due to human movement and introduce null model which travel-induced cancelled. They apply well-documented cases seasonal influenza outbreaks United States France. (using data for 1972–2002), observed strong short-range several states their immediate neighbors, as well robust long-range spreading resulting from large domestic air-traffic flows. The stability these...

Designed to overcome influenza B mismatch, new quadrivalent vaccines (QIVs) contain one additional strain compared with trivalent (TIVs).To examine the expected public health impact, budget and incremental cost-effectiveness of QIV versus TIV in United States.A dynamic transmission model was used predict annual incidence over 20-year-period 2014 2034 under either a program or program. A decision tree interfaced estimate impact replacing from societal perspective. Our models were informed by...

Abstract The shielding of older individuals has been proposed to limit COVID-19 hospitalizations while relaxing general social distancing in the absence vaccines. Evaluating such approaches requires a deep understanding transmission dynamics across ages. Here, we use detailed age-specific case and hospitalization data model rebound French epidemic summer 2020, characterize critically evaluate different age-targeted intervention measures We find that started young adults, it reached aged ≥80...

After one year of stop-and-go COVID-19 mitigation, in the spring 2021 European countries still experienced sustained viral circulation due to Alpha variant. As prospect entering a new pandemic phase through vaccination was drawing closer, key challenge remained on how balance efficacy long-lasting interventions and their impact quality life.Focusing third wave France during 2021, we simulate intervention scenarios varying intensity duration, with potential waning adherence over time, based...

Abstract Background Vaccination has become an essential weapon in the global battle against COVID-19. While showing high effectiveness original Wuhan-Hu-1 strain and early SARS-CoV-2 variants, questions have surfaced regarding duration of immunity they provide, especially with emergence new viral strains. The innovative self-amplifying (SA)mRNA vaccine, ARCT-154, demonstrated clinical improvements extending immune response. Our objective was to compare long-term efficacy ARCT-154 BNT162b2...

Abstract Background While vaccines have proved a key tool in protection from COVID-19, the duration of immunity induced by first-generation mRNA is limited. Self-amplifying (SA-mRNA) clinically shown to both elicit higher antibody responses and increase response. In this analysis, we evaluate relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) over time COVID-19 SA-mRNA (ARCT-154) versus BNT162b2 against original Wuhan-Hu-1 Omicron BA.4/BA.5 strains adults stratified age group (< 60 years ≥60...

Dans un essai contrôlé randomisé, le vaccin grippal haute dose (HD) a démontré une efficacité vaccinale relative (eVR) supérieure de 24,2% (9,7;36,5%) par rapport aux vaccins à standard (SD) pour prévenir la chez les 65+ [1]. Le HD été introduit en France partir saison 2021-2022, au cours laquelle nous avions rapporté rVE 23,3% (8.4%-35.8%) contre hospitalisations grippe. Nous présentons ici résultats deuxième saison. MéTHODES: avons mené étude cohorte rétrospective du SNDS. Les personnes...

We modeled the impact of initiating one-dose influenza vaccination at 3 months vs 6 after declaration a pandemic over 1-year timeframe in US population. Three vaccine effectiveness (VE) and two severity levels were considered, using an epidemic curve based on typical seasonal epidemics. Vaccination from with high, moderate, or low would prevent ~95%, 84%, 38% deaths post-vaccination, respectively, compared 21%, 18%, 8%, respectively following months, irrespective severity. While not be...