A5040640524- Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Climate variability and models
- Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism Studies
- Oil, Gas, and Environmental Issues
- Spacecraft Design and Technology
- Space exploration and regulation
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Image Processing and 3D Reconstruction
- Statistical and numerical algorithms
- Wind and Air Flow Studies
- Visual and Cognitive Learning Processes
- Wind Energy Research and Development
- Inertial Sensor and Navigation
- Digital and Cyber Forensics
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Educational Strategies and Epistemologies
- Conservation Techniques and Studies
Met Office
2013-2024
Bridge University
2021
University of Cambridge
2021
University of St Andrews
2019
Abstract The Met Office in the United Kingdom has developed a completely new probabilistic postprocessing system called IMPROVER to operate on outputs from its operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts and precipitation nowcasts. aim is improve forecast information public other stakeholders while better exploiting current future generations of underpinning kilometer-scale NWP ensembles. We wish provide seamless nowcasting medium range, consistency between gridded site-specific...
Abstract The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre produces 24/7/365 space weather guidance, alerts, and forecasts to a wide range of government commercial end‐users across the United Kingdom. Solar flare are one its products, which issued multiple times day in two forms: for each active region on solar disk over next 24 h full‐disk 4 days. Here forecasting process is described detail, as well first verification archived using methods commonly used operational prediction. Real‐time...
This paper describes an ensemble-based first guess support tool for severe weather, which has evolved over time to changing requirements from the UK National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). warning post-processes data regional component of Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS), is known as MOGREPS-W ('W' standing 'warnings'). The original system produced area-based probabilistic warnings extreme providing forecasters with objective basis assessing risk...
Solar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our System. Their impulsive, often drastic radiative increases, particular at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar physics and space weather research to understand the point of being able forecast them. As data algorithms improve dramatically, questions must be asked concerning how well forecasting performs; crucially, we ask rigorously measure performance order critically gauge any improvements. Building upon...
Abstract The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre was founded in 2014 and part of its remit is a daily Technical Forecast to help the UK build resilience space weather impacts; guidance includes 4 day geomagnetic storm forecasts (GMSF) X‐ray flare (XRFF). It crucial for forecasters, users, modelers, stakeholders understand strengths weaknesses these forecasts; therefore, it important verify against most reliable truth data source available. present study contains verification results...
Abstract A workshop was recently held at Nagoya University (2017 October 31–November 2), sponsored by the Center for International Collaborative Research, Institute Space-Earth Environmental University, Japan, to quantitatively compare performance of today’s operational solar flare forecasting facilities. Building upon Paper I this series, in II we described participating methods latest comparison effort, evaluation methodology, and presented quantitative comparisons. In paper, focus on...
A crucial challenge to successful flare prediction is forecasting periods that transition between "flare-quiet" and "flare-active". Building on earlier studies in this series (Barnes et al. 2016; Leka 2019a,b) which we describe methodology, details, results of comparison efforts, focus here patterns forecast outcomes (success failure) over multi-day periods. novel analysis developed evaluate success the context catching first event flare-active periods, conversely, correctly predicting...
Abstract The aurora and associated high energy particles currents pose a space weather hazard to communication networks ground‐based infrastructure. Forecasting the location of auroral oval forms an integral component daily operations. We evaluate version OVATION‐Prime 2013 forecast model that was implemented for operational use at UK Met Office Space Weather Operations Cent. Building on our earlier studies, we ability predict in all latitude local time sectors under different levels...
ABSTRACT Warning services are popular due to their conceptually simple nature; however, a approach verification can lead misleading results, from which it be difficult diagnose poor excellent performance, and when improvement is required often know where efforts should focused. A flexible, systematic the of warnings enables performance evaluated in terms space, time, intensity confidence. This paper describes such an approach, has been implemented at Met Office. Flexibility achieved via...
Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs) are a widely accepted international form of aviation forecast used for airport and flight planning procedures at all major airports; these forecasts contain probabilistic, deterministic temporal uncertainty terms which make verification challenging. In the present paper, each term is defined clearly within forecast, matching observations to as closely definitions allow. A novel multicategory reliability table approach devised measure performance; an...
Abstract The aurora is a readily visible phenomenon of interest to many members the public. However, and associated phenomena can also significantly impact communications, ground‐based infrastructure, high‐altitude radiation exposure. Forecasting location auroral oval therefore key component space weather forecast operations. A version OVATION‐Prime 2013 precipitation model (Newell et al., 2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014sw001056 ) was used by UK Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre...
ABSTRACT The Met Office routinely generates post‐processed forecasts at sites throughout the United Kingdom; both deterministic and probabilistic products exist data populate publicly available website. In recent years, providers of weather information have focused upon impact events; is often related to frequency occurrence an event a site which determined by its climatology. ability with site‐specific forecast predicts relative‐extremes may be investigated examining skill these events...
ABSTRACT Many meteorological service providers issue forecasts that contain short summary statements. These attempt to capture all the expected conditions during a forecast period. The area verification system has been developed verify these when they are issued in pre‐determined geographical areas. This verifies by comparing them with gridded nowcast model analysis fields. Results presented for wind speed component of shipping and inshore waters forecast. Both products UK M et O ffice on...
Abstract The full range of ensemble forecast members, expressed in percentile format, can give additional valuable information to users compared a deterministic solution. This study contains the first rigorous assessment operational U.K. site-specific generated by Met Office. Maximum meteorological summer daytime temperature forecasts issued between 2014 and 2016 are analyzed using ranked probability score (RPS), skill (RPSS), categorized mean squared error (MSE), quantile (QSS), relative...
On 11 and 12 August 2020 some of the highest rainfall depths in recent memory were observed across a wide area Scotland, causing significant impacts. As part its operational partnership with Scottish Environment Protection Agency, Met Office provides bespoke, probabilistic, impact-based Heavy Rainfall Alert Service. This system successfully forecast 58 60 severe-impact events that identified by post-processed radar.
Abstract Michaela K Mooney and co-authors evaluate a space weather forecast model in the same way that forecasts are assessed, work won 2019 Rishbeth Prize for best poster.
Weather is relative; a minimum temperature of +1°C at the Abbey Gardens in Tresco on Isles Scilly extreme, yet commonplace most other sites during UK winter. Categorising and displaying temperatures terms local, site-specific long-term observed climatology ideally suited to communication analysis both deterministic probabilistic forecasts. Furthermore, these categories also make all-site, regional forecast performance relatively straightforward present.