A5041341324- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Agricultural Innovations and Practices
- Fire effects on ecosystems
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Energy Load and Power Forecasting
- Cooperative Studies and Economics
- Air Traffic Management and Optimization
- Agricultural risk and resilience
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Safety Systems Engineering in Autonomy
- Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
- Energy and Environment Impacts
- Housing Market and Economics
- Microfinance and Financial Inclusion
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Intravenous Infusion Technology and Safety
- Risk and Safety Analysis
- Coffee research and impacts
- Agricultural Economics and Policy
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Wind Energy Research and Development
- Phosphorus and nutrient management
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
2023-2024
UNSW Sydney
2023-2024
Australian Research Council
2024
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
2019-2023
Newcastle University
2017-2020
University of Minnesota
1994-1997
Abstract Wildfire can cause significant adverse impacts to society and the environment. Weather climate play an important role in modulating wildfire activity. We explore joint occurrence of global fire weather meteorological drought using a compound events framework. show that, for much globe, burned area increases when periods heightened with dry antecedent conditions. Regions associated disasters, such as southern Australia western USA, are prone experiencing years weather. Such have...
Abstract Between June 2019 and March 2020, thousands of wildfires spread devastation across Australia at the tragic cost many lives, vast areas burnt forest, estimated economic losses upward AU$100 billion. Exceptionally hot dry weather conditions, preceding years severe drought Australia, contributed to severity wildfires. Here we present analysis a very large ensemble initialized climate simulations assess likelihood concurrent fire-weather conditions experienced that time. We focus on...
Abstract Solar photovoltaic and wind power are central to Australia’s renewable energy future, implying an sector vulnerable weather climate variability. Alignment of systems the influence large-scale modes variability risks widespread reductions in solar resources, could induce grid-wide impacts. We therefore systematically analyse relationship between compound radiation speed droughts with over multiple time scales. find that occur most frequently winter, affecting at least five...
ABSTRACT Weather‐pattern, or weather‐type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterize the broad‐scale atmospheric circulation over given region. This study analyses aspects of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to new set objectively defined weather patterns. These patterns currently being used by Met Office several probabilistic forecasting driven ensemble systems. Weather pattern definitions daily occurrences...
Abstract Medium‐ to long‐range precipitation forecasts are a crucial component in mitigating the impacts of fluvial flood events. Although is difficult predict at these lead times, forecast skill atmospheric circulation tends be greater. The study explores using weather patterns (WPs) as preliminary step producing upper‐tail threshold exceedance probabilities for UK. WPs predefined, discrete states representing daily mean sea‐level pressure (MSLP) over European–North Atlantic domain. most...
Global coffee production is at risk from synchronous crop failures, characterised by widespread concurrent reductions in yield occurring multiple countries the same time. For other crops, previous studies have shown that failures can be forced spatially compounding climate anomalies, which turn may driven large-scale modes such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We provide a systematic analysis of hazards relevant to global production. identify 12 literature, and assess extent these...
Abstract. Dynamical model skill in forecasting extratropical precipitation is limited beyond the medium-range (around 15 d), but such models are often more skilful at predicting atmospheric variables. We explore potential benefits of using weather pattern (WP) predictions as an intermediary step UK and meteorological drought on sub-seasonal timescales. Mean sea-level pressure forecasts from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system (ECMWF-EPS)...
Abstract Large-scale cloud features referred to as cloudbands are known be related widespread and heavy rain via the transport of tropical heat moisture higher latitudes. The Australian northwest cloudband is such a feature that has been identified in simple searches satellite imagery but with limited investigation its atmospheric dynamical support. An accurate, long-term climatology key robustly assessing these events. A dynamically based search algorithm developed guided by presence...
There is evidence suggesting that fire activity in southeast Australia has increased the past two decades. also anecdotal pyrocumulonimbus events have become more common, although observed record short. We explore extent to which possible changes and occurrence can be explained by number of extreme (above 95th percentile) days per year fire-weather indices, Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) continuous Haines index (C-Haines). For period 1958 through 2020, we show there a dependence between...
Abstract Large-scale modes of climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic and Indian Ocean Dipole, show significant regional correlations with seasonal weather conditions, are routinely forecast by meteorological agencies attempting to anticipate precipitation patterns. Here, we use machine learning together more traditional approaches quantify how much variability can be explained large-scale understand degree which these interact non-linearly. We find that...
Abstract Eastern Australia experienced record-breaking rainfall and flooding during 2022, which devastated communities led to over AU$6 billion of damage. In this study, we conduct a multiscale analysis understand why 2022 was unusually wet with multiple events the year. We assess synoptic mesoscale conditions three key periods: February-March, July, October. These periods were chosen because they impactful represent different seasons. Next, examine large-scale climate drivers evaluate how...
Persistence in time series of daily weather pattern (WP) classifications can provide useful information such as on the memory broad‐scale atmospheric circulation. Despite this, research WP persistence has lagged behind that exploring their frequencies occurrence. We develop two methods for identifying a 167‐year WPs defined over North Atlantic–European domain. The first is an empirical counting technique used to find periods among sets WPs, with definition more relaxed than just consecutive...
Abstract The record-shattering hot day in the Pacific Northwest June 2021 is used to motivate a study of temperature extremes very large hindcast ensemble. hottest days ensemble have similar scale and synoptic patterns those associated with observed event. From perspective fixed location, are acutely sensitive chance sequencing dry period precisely positioned weather pattern. These thus rare require samples (tens thousands years) capture. enduring nature heat records can be understood...
© 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Carly Tozer, carly.tozer@csiro.au
Abstract The CSIRO Climate retrospective Analysis and Forecast Ensemble system: version 1 (CAFE60v1) provides a large (96 member) ensemble analysis of the global climate system from 1960 to present with sufficiently many realizations at spatio-temporal resolutions suitable enable probabilistic studies. Using variant Kalman filter, 96 state estimates are generated over most recent six decades. These constrained by monthly mean ocean, atmosphere sea ice observations such that their...
Wildfires are a growing global challenge. In addition to becoming more widespread and intense due climate change, the fire seasons in many regions longer. The lengthening of reduces window opportunity for preparedness (e.g. prescribed burning dry fuels before season onset) increases likelihood spatially compounding risks overlapping weather seasons. These increased demand efficient cooperation sharing firefighting resources helicopters, planes, firefighters), major concern, is how...
Abstract Despite common background La Niña conditions, Australia was very dry in November 2020 and wet 2021. This paper aims to provide an explanation for this difference. Large-scale drivers of Australian rainfall, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean dipole, Southern Annular Mode, Madden–Julian oscillation, were examined but did not obvious clues the differences. We found that absence (in 2020) or presence 2021) enhanced thermal wind subtropical jet over continent...
Abstract Subseasonal forecast skill is not homogeneous in time, and prior assessment of the likely would be valuable for end-users. We propose a method identifying periods high confidence using atmospheric circulation patterns, with an application to southern Australia precipitation. In particular, we use archetypal analysis derive six called archetypes, daily 500-hPa geopotential height ( Z 500 ) fields over Australia. assign reanalysis closest-matching archetype subsequently link...
Solar and wind power are central to Australia’s renewable energy future, which implies an sector vulnerable weather climate variability. Alignment of systems the influence large-scale modes variability risks widespread reductions in solar resources, could induce grid-wide impacts. We therefore systematically analyse relationship between compound droughts with over multiple time scales. find that occur most frequently winter, affecting at least five significant producing regions...
Climate projections indicate that dangerous fire weather will become more common over the coming century. We examine potential of a network temperature- and moisture-sensitive tree-ring sites in southeastern Australia to reconstruct number high fire-danger days for January–March season. Using Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), we show modestly statistically skilful reconstructions far southeast (western Tasmania), where majority predictors are located, can be developed. According averaged...
With increased interest in climate forecasts and projections, it is important to understand more about their sources levels of skill. A starting point here describe the nature skill associated with projections. Climate projections typically both include time varying forcing climate, but only have initial conditions set close observed state. therefore derive from forcing. The character condition different. Skill results a narrowing expectations relative climatological distribution points...
Manure management recommendations and practices should be preceded by a whole-farm, comprehensive manure plan, but planning aids have shortcomings that limit their widespread use. The Application Planner (MAP), version 3.0, is computer software tool used for developing or assessing application plans meet environmental standards achieve economic feasibility. source quantity analyses, field nutrient needs sensitivity, pricing cost information form the main categories of program input....