A5052950606- Viral Infections and Immunology Research
- Viral gastroenteritis research and epidemiology
- Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology
- SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Animal Virus Infections Studies
- Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Cervical Cancer and HPV Research
- Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Respiratory viral infections research
- Viral Infections and Vectors
- SARS-CoV-2 detection and testing
- Virology and Viral Diseases
- Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Hepatitis B Virus Studies
- Plant Virus Research Studies
- Whipple's Disease and Interleukins
- Advanced MIMO Systems Optimization
- Reproductive tract infections research
- Genetic diversity and population structure
- Cytomegalovirus and herpesvirus research
- Pneumonia and Respiratory Infections
- Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
- Rabies epidemiology and control
- COVID-19 and Mental Health
Imperial College London
2015-2025
Medical Research Council
2024
Christian Medical College & Hospital
2022
National Centre for Infectious Diseases
2021
London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research
2020
St Mary's Hospital
2015-2018
University College Hospital
2018
University College London
2018
Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare
2018
Universitat de València
2018
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure distancing, and here, we characterise relationship between mobility for 52 around world. Transmission significantly decreased with initial reduction in 73% analysed, but found evidence decoupling following relaxation strict measures 80%...
WHO has called for increased testing in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but countries have taken different approaches and effectiveness of alternative strategies is unknown. We aimed investigate potential impact isolation on transmission severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).
Abstract Background After experiencing a sharp growth in COVID-19 cases early the pandemic, South Korea rapidly controlled transmission while implementing less stringent national social distancing measures than countries Europe and USA. This has led to substantial interest their “test, trace, isolate” strategy. However, it is important understand epidemiological peculiarities of Korea’s outbreak characterise response before attempting emulate these elsewhere. Methods We systematically...
Human enteroviruses are a major cause of neurological and other diseases. More than 100 serotypes known that exhibit unexplained complex patterns incidence, from regular cycles to more irregular patterns, new emergences. Using 15 years surveillance data Japan (2000-2014) stochastic transmission model with accurate demography, we show acquired serotype-specific immunity can explain the diverse 18 20 most common (including Coxsackieviruses, Echoviruses, Enterovirus-A71). The remaining two...
Significance Nonpolio enteroviruses are responsible for a high burden of neurological and other diseases exhibit peak in summer every year, but drivers their seasonality not clearly understood. We find that the seasonal pattern enterovirus cases United States has spatial structure comparable with prevaccination poliomyelitis. The average monthly distribution is more flat south pronounced occurs later toward north, poliomyelitis occurring approximately 1 month than nonpolio enteroviruses....
Mathematical modeling predicts an enterovirus D68, and therefore acute flaccid myelitis, outbreak in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions 2020.
Mass campaigns with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) have brought the world close to eradication of wild poliovirus. However, complete eradication, OPV must itself be withdrawn prevent outbreaks vaccine-derived (VDPV). Synchronized global withdrawal began serotype 2 (OPV2) in April 2016, which presented first test feasibility eradicating all polioviruses.
Reversion and spread of vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV) to cause outbreaks poliomyelitis is a rare outcome resulting from immunisation with the live-attenuated oral vaccines (OPVs). Global withdrawal all three OPV serotypes therefore key objective polio endgame strategic plan, starting serotype 2 (OPV2) in April 2016. Supplementary activities (SIAs) trivalent (tOPV) advance this date could mitigate risks OPV2 by increasing serotype-2 immunity, but may also create new VDPV (VDPV2). Here, we...
The factors leading to the global emergence of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in 2014 as a cause acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) children are unknown. To investigate potential changes virus transmissibility or population susceptibility, we measured seroprevalence EV-D68-specific neutralising antibodies serum samples collected England 2006, 2011, and 2017. Using catalytic mathematical models, estimate an approximately 50% increase annual probability infection over 10-year study period, coinciding with...
Population-based serological surveys are a key tool in epidemiology to characterize the level of population immunity and reconstruct past circulation pathogens. A variety serocatalytic models have been developed estimate force infection (FOI) (i.e., rate at which susceptible individuals become infected) from age-stratified seroprevalence data. However, few currently exists easily implement, combine, compare these models. Here, we introduce an R package, Rsero, that implements series...
Rabies is a worldwide zoonosis resulting from Lyssavirus infection. In Europe, Eptesicus serotinus the most frequently reported bat species infected with Lyssavirus, and thus considered to be reservoir of European type 1 (EBLV-1). To date, role other in EBLV-1 epidemiology persistence remains unknown. Here, we built an EBLV-1-transmission model based on local observations three-cave four-bat (Myotis capaccinii, Myotis myotis, Miniopterus schreibersii, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) system...
Global withdrawal of serotype-2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV2) took place in April 2016. This marked a milestone global polio eradication and was public health intervention unprecedented scale, affecting 155 countries. Achieving high levels population immunity before OPV2 critical to avoid subsequent outbreaks vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPV2s).In August 2015, we estimated vaccine-induced against poliomyelitis for 1 January 2004-30 June 2015 produced forecasts 2016 by district Nigeria...
Abstract Antibiotic-use policies may affect pneumococcal conjugate-vaccine effectiveness. The reported increase of meningitis from 2001 to 2009 in France, where a national campaign reduce antibiotic use was implemented parallel the introduction 7-valent conjugate vaccine, provides unique data assess these effects. We constructed mechanistic transmission model and used likelihood ability competing hypotheses explain that increase. find integrating fitness cost penicillin resistance...
Abstract India reported over 10 million COVID-19 cases and 149,000 deaths in 2020. To estimate exposure the potential for further spread, we used a SARS-CoV-2 transmission model fit to seroprevalence data from three serosurveys Delhi time-series of reconstruct epidemic. The cumulative proportion population estimated infected was 48.7% (95% CrI 22.1% – 76.8%) by end-September Using an age-adjusted overall infection fatality ratio (IFR) based on age-specific estimates mostly high-income...
Abstract Discrete trait analysis (DTA) methods are widely used to infer patterns of movement between discrete geographic locations from genetic sequence data as they simple and fast implement. With the increasing interest in phylogeography for pathogen genomic epidemiology, accounting understanding limitations is becoming increasingly important. Applying DTA location makes several strong simplifying assumptions, including assumption equal sampling probability across locations. This may lead...