A5019255415- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Healthcare Policy and Management
- Global Health Care Issues
- HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions
- Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life
- Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Health disparities and outcomes
- Global Maternal and Child Health
- Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Malaria Research and Control
- HIV/AIDS Impact and Responses
- Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- COVID-19 and healthcare impacts
- COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- HIV, Drug Use, Sexual Risk
- SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology
- Healthcare Systems and Reforms
- Healthcare Quality and Management
- Poverty, Education, and Child Welfare
- Healthcare Operations and Scheduling Optimization
- HIV Research and Treatment
- Employment and Welfare Studies
Imperial College London
2016-2025
Medical Research Council
2020-2024
National Centre for Infectious Diseases
2022
Mahidol University
2021
Universitätsklinik für Hals-, Nasen- und Ohrenheilkunde
2021
NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre
2020-2021
University of York
2001-2021
London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research
2020
Johns Hopkins University
2019
National Institute for Health Research
2019
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure distancing, and here, we characterise relationship between mobility for 52 around world. Transmission significantly decreased with initial reduction in 73% analysed, but found evidence decoupling following relaxation strict measures 80%...
A universal testing and treatment strategy is a potential approach to reduce the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, yet previous trial results are inconsistent.
Abstract Background To calculate hospital surge capacity, achieved via provision interventions implemented for the emergency treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and other patients through March to May 2020; evaluate conditions admitting elective surgery under varying admission levels COVID-19 patients. Methods We analysed National Health Service (NHS) datasets literature reviews estimate care capacity before pandemic (pre-pandemic baseline) quantify impact (cancellation surgery,...
Despite extensive research into adverse events, there is no quantitative estimate for the risk of experiencing events per day spent in hospital. This important information hospital managers, because they may consider discharging patients earlier to alternative care providers if this associated with lower risk, but other costs and benefits are similar.We model as a function patient factors, fixed effects, length stay. Potential endogeneity stay addressed instrumental variable methods, using...
ABSTRACT This paper investigates the impact of sugar‐sweetened beverages (SSB) taxes on consumption, bodyweight and tax burden for low‐income, middle‐income high‐income groups using an Almost Ideal Demand System 2011 Household level scanner data. A significant contribution our is that we compare two types SSB recently advocated by policy makers: 20% flat rate sales (valoric) a 20 cent/L volumetric tax. Censored demand accounted two‐step procedure. We find would result in greater per capita...
Background The HPTN 052 trial confirmed that antiretroviral therapy (ART) can nearly eliminate HIV transmission from successfully treated HIV-infected individuals within couples. Here, we present the mathematical modeling used to inform design and monitoring of a new aiming test whether widespread provision ART is feasible substantially reduce population-level incidence. Methods Findings 071 (PopART) three-arm cluster-randomized 21 large population clusters in Zambia South Africa, starting...
The worldwide endeavour to develop safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines has been extraordinary, vaccination is now underway in many countries. However, the doses available 2021 are likely be limited. We extend a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission across different country settings evaluate public health impact potential using WHO-developed target product profiles. identify optimal vaccine allocation strategies within- between-countries maximise averted deaths under constraints on...
Emerging evidence suggests ethnic minorities are disproportionately affected by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Detailed clinical analyses of multicultural hospitalized patient cohorts remain largely undescribed. We performed regression, survival, and cumulative competing risk to evaluate factors associated with mortality in patients admitted for COVID-19 3 large London hospitals between 25 February 5 April, censored as 1 May 2020. Of 614 (median age, 69 [interquartile range, 25] years)...
Significance The coronavirus pandemic has become the most recent and urgent public health issue to threaten systems test government responses globally. United States is leading with highest number of infections despite implementation nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). These measures may vary in their effectiveness across populations as ability physically distance a privilege highly intersected ethnicity socioeconomic status. Furthermore, now lifted many NPIs; however, there no evidence...
Vaccine hesitancy - a delay in acceptance or refusal of vaccines despite availability has the potential to threaten successful roll-out SARS-CoV-2 globally. In this study, we aim understand likely impact vaccine on control COVID-19 pandemic.We modelled pandemic and relaxation non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) by combining an epidemiological model transmission with data from population surveys.Our simulations suggest that mortality over 2-year period could be up 7.6 times higher...
To study the trade-off between economic, social and health outcomes in management of a pandemic, DAEDALUS integrates dynamic epidemiological model SARS-CoV-2 transmission with multi-sector economic model, reflecting sectoral heterogeneity complex supply chains. The identifies mitigation strategies that optimize production while constraining infections so hospital capacity is not exceeded but allowing essential services, including much education sector, to remain active. differentiates...
Most countries face high demands on their health care systems and have limited resources with which to meet them. Priority setting seeks address these problems by proposing rules decide groups of patients or disease areas should secure favoured access resources. The economic approach towards priority setting, particularly in the form cost-effectiveness analysis, is commonly advocated. However, despite many decades refinement technical methodological issues arising from use evaluation...
Abstract This paper is concerned with quantifying the level of mental health mobility in British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). We investigate whether extent intertemporal fluctuations different across categories socio‐economic group such as income quintiles, educational attainment and social class. Our measure 12‐item version General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) that serves a self‐administered screening test aimed at detecting psychiatric disorders. Using 11 waves BHPS variety methods we show...
Objective To assess trends in 30-day emergency readmission rates across England over one decade. Design Retrospective study design. Setting 150 non-specialist hospital trusts England. Participants 23 069 134 patients above 18 years of age who were readmitted following an initial admission (n=62 584 297) between April 2006 and February 2016. Primary secondary outcomes We examined admissions that occurred within 30 days discharge from (‘emergency readmissions’) as a measure healthcare quality....
COVID-19 (Disease); Epidemics; Infectious disease; Emerging infectious diseases; Communicable diseases
Hospitals in England have undergone considerable change to address the surge demand imposed by COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of this on emergency department (ED) attendances is unknown, especially for non-COVID-19 related emergencies.
Abstract Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed enormous strain on intensive care units (ICUs) in Europe. Ensuring access to care, irrespective of COVID-19 status, winter 2020–2021 is essential. Methods An integrated model hospital capacity planning and epidemiological projections patients used estimate the demand for resultant spare ICU beds, staff ventilators under different epidemic scenarios France, Germany Italy across period. effect implementing...
Abstract ‘Nudge’‐based social norms messages conveying high population influenza vaccination coverage levels can encourage due to bandwagoning effects but also discourage free‐riding on low risk of infection, making their impact uptake ambiguous. We develop a theoretical framework capture heterogeneity around behaviors, and empirically measure the causal different about rates four self‐reported behavioral intention measures. In an online experiment, N = 1365 UK adults are randomly assigned...
We present a stochastic metapopulation transmission model that simulates the spread of H5N1 avian influenza through individual dairy cows in 35,974 herds continental United States. Transmission is enabled movement cattle between herds, as indicated from Interstate Certificates Veterinary Inspection (ICVI) data. estimate rates under-reporting by state and anticipated positivity for tested at point exportation over time. investigate likely impact intervention methods to date on underlying...
Abstract Background The availability of many tools for malaria control leads to complex decisions regarding the most cost-effective intervention package based on local epidemiology. Mosquito characteristics influence impact vector control, but entomological surveillance is often limited due a lack resources in national programmes. Methods This study quantified monetary value information provided by data collection programmatic decision-making using mathematical model Plasmodium falciparum...