A5044131188- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Climate variability and models
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Wind and Air Flow Studies
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Computational Physics and Python Applications
- Infrared Target Detection Methodologies
- Geological and Geophysical Studies
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Impact of Light on Environment and Health
- Coastal wetland ecosystem dynamics
NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research
2019-2024
Colorado State University
2012-2023
NOAA National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service
2021
Italian Aerospace Research Centre
2018
Abstract A relatively simple method to estimate tropical cyclone (TC) wind radii from routinely available information including storm data (location, motion, and intensity) TC size is introduced. The based on a combination of techniques presented in previous works makes an assumption that TCs are largely symmetric asymmetries solely motion location. was applied estimates two sources: infrared satellite imagery global model analyses. validation shows the methodology comparable with other...
This article provides a review of tropical cyclone (TC) surface wind estimation from an operational forecasting perspective. First, we provide summary forecast center practices and historical databases. Next, discuss current emerging objective estimates TC winds, including algorithms, archive datasets, individual algorithm strengths weaknesses as applied to parameters. Our leads recommendations about required coverage – area covering at least 1100 km 2-km resolution in the inner-core,...
Abstract The synoptic environment around tropical cyclones plays a significant role in vortex evolution. To capture the environment, operational and research communities calculate diagnostic quantities. aid with applications research, Tropical Cyclone Precipitation, Infrared, Microwave, Environmental Dataset (TC PRIMED) combines disparate data sources. A key part of TC PRIMED is environmental context. Often, diagnostics come from multiple However, uses European Centre for Medium-Range...
Abstract The intensity of deep convective storms is driven in part by the strength their updrafts and cold pools. In spite importance these storm features, they can be poorly represented within numerical models. This has been attributed to model parameterizations, grid resolution, lack appropriate observations with which evaluate such simulations. overarching goal Colorado State University Convective CLoud Outflows UpDrafts Experiment (C 3 LOUD-Ex) was enhance our understanding processes...
Abstract Diurnal oscillations of infrared cloud-top brightness temperatures (Tbs) in tropical cyclones (TCs) as inferred from storm-centered, direction-relative longwave (~11 μ m) imagery are quantified for Northern Hemisphere TCs (2005–15) using statistical methods. These methods show that 45%, 54%, and 61% at least storm-, hurricane-, major hurricane-strength TC cases have moderate or strong diurnal signals. Principal component analysis–based average behavior all with intensities 34 kt...
Abstract This paper presents high-resolution numerical solutions of a nonlinear zonally symmetric slab model the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) boundary layer. The layer zonal and meridional flows are forced by specified pressure field, which can also be interpreted as geostrophically balanced wind field ug(y). One narrow on-equatorial peak in pumping is produced when forcing easterly geostrophic flow along equator two peaks on opposite sides (a double ITCZ) westerly equator. In case...
A simplified, axisymmetric, one-layer model of tropical cyclone intensification is presented. The based on the Salmon wave-vortex approximation, which can describe flows with low Froude number and arbitrary Rossby number. After introducing an additional approximation designed to filter propagating inertia-gravity waves, problem reduced prediction potential vorticity (PV) inversion this PV obtain balanced wind mass fields. This prediction/inversion solved analytically for two types forcing: a...
Abstract The Rapid Intensification Deterministic Ensemble (RIDE) is an operational method used to estimate the probability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification in Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s area responsibility. Inputs RIDE are current intensity, storm latitude, intensity change forecasts from seven routinely available deterministic models change, and number those exceeding their individual 90th percentile change. model inputs come four numerical weather prediction models, two...
Abstract Visible satellite imagery is widely used by operational weather forecast centers for tropical and extratropical cyclone analysis marine forecasting. The absence of visible at night can significantly degrade capabilities, such as determining center locations or tracking warm-topped convective clusters. This paper documents ProxyVis imagery, an infrared-based proxy daytime developed to address the lack limitations existing nighttime options. was trained on VIIRS day/night band times...
Abstract To study tropical cyclones and generate forecast applications using satellite observations, researchers often consolidate disparate sources of raw ancillary data. Data consolidation involves obtaining, collocating, intercalibrating data from different sensors derived products; calculating environmental diagnostics a homogeneous source; standardizing these various products for straightforward analysis. alleviate preprocessing issues provide long-term, global digital dataset cyclone...
Abstract With several seasons of Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data, this work revisits incorporating lightning observations into operational tropical cyclone rapid intensification guidance. GLM provides freely available, real-time data over the central and eastern North Pacific Atlantic Oceans. A long-term dataset is needed to use in a statistical–dynamical application capture relationship between rare occurrence intensification. This uses World Wide Location Network (WWLLN) from...
Just before making landfall in Puerto Rico, Hurricane Maria (2017) underwent a concentric eyewall cycle which the outer convective ring appeared robust while inner first distorted into an ellipse and then disintegrated. The present work offers further support for simple interpretation of this event terms non-divergent barotropic model, serves as basis linear stability analysis non-linear numerical simulations. For model’s axisymmetric basic state vorticity distribution is piece-wise uniform...
Abstract Intensity consensus forecasts can provide skillful overall guidance for intensity forecasting at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center as they among lowest mean absolute errors; however, these are far less useful periods of rapid intensification (RI) provided is generally low biased. One way to address this issue construct a that also includes deterministic RI forecast in order increase rates during RI. While approach increases skill and eliminates some bias, from remain biased events....
Abstract A skill baseline for five-day, 34-, 50-, and 64-knot (1 kt = 0.514 m s −1 ) tropical cyclone (TC) wind radii forecasts is described. The Markov Model CLiper (MMCL) generates a sequence of 12-h out to forecast length limited only by the track intensity. model employs climatology TC size based on infrared satellite imagery, chain, basin-specific drift. MMCL uses initial intensity as input. Unlike previously developed persistence (DRCL) that reverts climatological shape after...
This paper presents numerical solutions and idealized analytical of axisymmetric, $f$-plane models the tropical cyclone boundary layer. In model, layer radial tangential flow is forced by a specified pressure field, which can also be interpreted as gradient balanced wind field $v_{\rm gr}(r)$ or vorticity $\zeta_{\rm gr}(r)$. When changed from one that radially concentrated in inner core to spread, quasi-steady-state transitions single eyewall shock-like structure double structure. To better...
Solutions of the secondary (transverse) circulation equation for an axisymmetric, gradient balanced vortex are used to better understand distribution subsidence in eye a tropical cyclone. This is derived using both physical radius coordinate r and potential R . In -coordinate version, baroclinic effects implicit transformation recovered final step transforming solution streamfunction Ψ back from -space -space. Two types elliptic problems formulated: 1) full problem, which formulated on 0 ≤...
This review discusses a simple family of models capable simulating tropical cyclone life cycles, including intensification, the formation axisymmetric version boundary layer shocks, and development an eyewall. Four are discussed, all which axisymmetric, f-plane, three-layer models. All four have same parameterizations convective mass flux air–sea interaction, but differ in their formulations radial tangential equations motion, i.e., they different dry dynamical cores. The most complete model...
Abstract The 48-h intensity forecasts for Hurricane Pamela (2021) from numerical weather prediction models, statistical–dynamical aids, and forecasters were a major forecast bust with making landfall as minor rather than hurricane. From the satellite presentation, exhibited symmetric pattern referred to central cold cover (CCC) in subjective Dvorak technique. Per technique, CCC is accompanied by arrested development despite seemingly favorable convective signature. To understand uncertainty...
Abstract Intense tropical cyclones can form secondary eyewalls (SEs) that contract toward the storm center and eventually replace inner eyewall, a process known as an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). However, SE formation does not guarantee eventual ERC, often, SEs follow differing evolutionary pathways. This study documents evolution progressions observed in numerous cyclones, results two new datasets using passive microwave imagery: global subjectively labeled dataset of eyes their...
Abstract This study describes an automated analysis of real-time tropical cyclone (TC) aircraft reconnaissance observations to estimate TC surface winds. The wind uses iterative, objective, data-weighted approach with different smoothing constraints in the radial and azimuthal directions. Smoothing penalize data misfit when solutions deviate from smoothed analyses extend information into areas not directly observed. composites following storm motion taken within 5 h prior 3 after time makes...