A5055029228- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
- Carbon Dioxide Capture Technologies
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Air Quality and Health Impacts
- Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
- Energy and Environment Impacts
- Planetary Science and Exploration
- Global Energy Security and Policy
- Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies
- Space exploration and regulation
- Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Social Acceptance of Renewable Energy
- Simulation Techniques and Applications
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Environmental and Biological Research in Conflict Zones
- International Environmental Law and Policies
- Water resources management and optimization
- Thermodynamic and Exergetic Analyses of Power and Cooling Systems
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
2016-2025
Utrecht University
2015-2025
ORCID
2021
This paper presents the overview of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, emissions implications. The SSPs are part a new scenario framework, established by climate change research community in order to facilitate integrated analysis future impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, mitigation. pathways were developed over last years as joint effort describe plausible major global developments that together would lead different challenges for mitigation adaptation...
This paper describes the possible developments in global energy use and production, land use, emissions climate changes following SSP1 storyline, a development consistent with green growth (or sustainable development) paradigm (a more inclusive respecting environmental boundaries). The results are based on implementation using IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model compared a) other implementations of SSPs (SSP2 SSP3) b) models. show that combination resource efficiency, preferences for...
Abstract. We present a suite of nine scenarios future emissions trajectories anthropogenic sources, key deliverable the ScenarioMIP experiment within CMIP6. Integrated assessment model results for 14 different species and 13 sectors are provided each scenario with consistent transitions from historical data used in CMIP6 to using automated harmonization before being downscaled provide higher source spatial detail. find that span wide range end-of-century radiative forcing values, thus making...
Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides particulates have significant health impacts well effects on natural anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global regional climate. Long-term scenarios for pollutant are needed inputs to climate models, analysis linking across sectors. In this paper we present methodology results in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We...
Change in the air The 2016 Paris Agreement set ambitious goals of keeping global temperature rise this century below 2°C, or even better, 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. Substantial interventions are required to meet these goals, particularly for industrialized countries. Duan et al. projected that China will need reduce its carbon emissions by more than 90% and energy consumption almost 40% do share reaching target. Negative emission technology is an essential element any plan. China's...
Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and contribute the temperature objectives of Paris Agreement on change. In 2023, global stocktake will assess combined effort countries. Here, based a public policy database multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation current leaves median emission gap 22.4 28.2 GtCO2eq by 2030 with optimal pathways implement well below 2 °C 1.5 goals. If would be fully...
To achieve all Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030, it is necessary to understand how they interact with each other. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) represent many human–environment interactions and can inform policymakers about the synergies trade-offs involved in meeting multiple goals simultaneously. We analyse IAMs, originally developed study among energy, economy, climate, land, contribute a wider analysis of SDGs order integrated policies. compare key identified an expert...
Abstract Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have emerged as key tools for building and assessing long term climate mitigation scenarios. Due to their central role in the recent IPCC assessments, international policy analyses more generally, high uncertainties related future projections, IAMs been critically assessed by scholars from different fields receiving various critiques ranging adequacy of methods how results are used communicated. Although conceptually diverse evolved very...
Abstract Direct air capture (DAC) is critical for achieving stringent climate targets, yet the environmental implications of its large-scale deployment have not been evaluated in this context. Performing a prospective life cycle assessment two promising technologies series change mitigation scenarios, we find that electricity sector decarbonization and DAC technology improvements are both indispensable to avoid problem-shifting. Decarbonizing improves sequestration efficiency, but also...
Abstract To reach net-zero greenhouse gas targets, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are required to compensate for residual emissions in the hard-to-abate sectors. However, dependencies on CDR involve environmental, technical and social risks, particularly related increased land requirements afforestation bioenergy crops. Here, using scenarios consistent with 1.5 °C target, we show that demand technological interventions can substantially lower emission levels four sectors...
We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with reduced-form global air quality to assess the potential co-benefits of climate mitigation policies in relation World Health Organization (WHO) goals on and health. include our assessment, range alternative assumptions implementation current planned pollution control policies. The resulting emission ranges significantly extend those Representative Concentration Pathways. Climate complement efforts...
Abstract. We present a suite of nine scenarios future emissions trajectories anthropogenic sources, key deliverable the ScenarioMIP experiment within CMIP6. Integrated Assessment Model results for 14 different species and 13 sectors are provided each scenario with consistent transitions from historical data used in CMIP6 to using automated harmonization before being downscaled provide higher emission source spatial detail. find that span wide range end-of-century radiative forcing values,...
Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and global levels needed to achieve Paris Agreement's climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National sectoral policies can help fill gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated other countries. They need adapted local context. Here, we develop new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with experts....
Abstract Integrated assessment models (IAMs) form a prime tool in informing about climate mitigation strategies. Diagnostic indicators that allow comparison across these can help describe and explain differences model projections. This increases transparency comparability. Earlier, the IAM community has developed an approach to diagnose (Kriegler (2015 Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 90 45–61)). Here we build on this, by proposing selected set of well-defined as standard, systematically...
Abstract The Paris Agreement does not only stipulate to limit the global average temperature increase well below 2 °C, it also calls for ‘making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions’. Consequently, there is an urgent need understand implications of climate targets energy systems and quantify associated investment requirements in coming decade. A meaningful analysis must however consider near-term mitigation avoid overshoot goal. It include recently...
Despite its projected crucial role in stringent, future global climate policy, non-CO
Abstract Globally, more than 100 countries have adopted net‐zero targets. Most studies agree on how this increases the chance of keeping end‐of‐century global warming below 2°C. However, they typically make assumptions about targets that do not capture uncertainties related to gas coverage, sector sinks, and removals. This study aims analyze impact many uncertainty factors projected greenhouse (GHG) emissions by 2050 for major emitting following their pathways, aggregate GHG emissions....
Abstract This study examines model-specific assumptions and projections of methane (CH 4 ) emissions in deep mitigation scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs). For this, nine are compared terms sectoral regional CH emission reduction strategies, as well resulting climate impacts. The models’ projected potentials to sector technology-specific found literature. Significant cost-effective non-climate policy related reductions the reference case (10–36% a “frozen factor”...