A5045602451- Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Zoonotic diseases and public health
- Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
- Viral Infections and Vectors
- Amphibian and Reptile Biology
- Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Animal Behavior and Reproduction
- Plant and animal studies
- Plant Pathogens and Resistance
- Avian ecology and behavior
- Stochastic Gradient Optimization Techniques
- Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
- Adversarial Robustness in Machine Learning
- Physiological and biochemical adaptations
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Vector-borne infectious diseases
- Domain Adaptation and Few-Shot Learning
- Social Media and Politics
- Neural Networks and Applications
- Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology
- Malaria Research and Control
- Plant Pathogens and Fungal Diseases
- Machine Learning and Algorithms
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
Yale University
2022-2025
University of South Florida
2012-2024
University of Wisconsin–Madison
2019-2023
Cornell University
1977-2021
Cornell Lab of Ornithology
2020-2021
Carnegie Mellon University
2019-2021
John Wiley & Sons (United States)
2020
McMaster University
2019-2020
Ecological Society of America
2020
New York University Press
2019
Infectious diseases of humans, wildlife, and domesticated species are increasing worldwide, driving the need to understand mechanisms that shape outbreaks. Simultaneously, human activities drastically reducing biodiversity. These concurrent patterns have prompted repeated suggestions biodiversity disease linked. For example, dilution effect hypothesis posits these causally related; diverse host communities inhibit spread parasites via several mechanisms, such as by regulating populations...
Recent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand seasonal geographic range transmission by Aedes aegypti Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use mechanistic models derive predictions for how probability magnitude chikungunya, dengue change with mean temperature, we show that these are well matched human case data. Across all three viruses, data both occurs between 18–34°C maximal occurring in a from 26–29°C. Controlling population size two socioeconomic...
We show how to turn any classifier that classifies well under Gaussian noise into a new is certifiably robust adversarial perturbations the $\ell_2$ norm. This "randomized smoothing" technique has been proposed recently in literature, but existing guarantees are loose. prove tight robustness guarantee norm for smoothing with noise. use randomized obtain an ImageNet e.g. certified top-1 accuracy of 49% less than 0.5 (=127/255). No defense shown feasible on except smoothing. On smaller-scale...
Abstract Parasites typically have broader thermal limits than hosts, so large performance gaps between pathogens and their cold‐ warm‐adapted hosts should occur at relatively warm cold temperatures, respectively. We tested this mismatch hypothesis by quantifying the temperature‐dependent susceptibility of amphibian species to fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ) using laboratory experiments field prevalence estimates from 15 410 individuals in 598 populations. In both field,...
A wide range of research has promised new tools for forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but little that is currently being applied in practice, because do not address key public health needs, produce probabilistic forecasts, have been evaluated on external data, or provide sufficient forecast skill to be useful. We developed an open collaborative challenge assess forecasts seasonal epidemics dengue, a major global problem. Sixteen teams used variety methods and data generate 3...
The temperature-dependence of many important mosquito-borne diseases has never been quantified. These relationships are critical for understanding current distributions and predicting future shifts from climate change. We used trait-based models to characterize temperature-dependent transmission 10 vector–pathogen pairs mosquitoes ( Culex pipiens , Cx. quinquefascsiatus tarsalis others) viruses (West Nile, Eastern Western Equine Encephalitis, St. Louis Sindbis, Rift Valley Fever viruses),...
This paper explores the intersection of libel law and communication theory that occurs when juries assess effect a defamatory on others. The third-person hypothesis suggests people often assume others will be more affected by potentially persuasive communications than they are themselves. An experiment was conducted in which students were exposed to variety newspaper articles. results confirmed several predictions. First, readers estimated would messages themselves be. Second, this magnified...
Humans are altering the distribution of species by changing climate and disrupting biotic interactions dispersal. A fundamental hypothesis in spatial ecology suggests that these effects scale dependent; should shape distributions at local scales, whereas dominate regional scales. If so, common single-scale analyses might misestimate impacts anthropogenic modifications on biodiversity environment. However, large-scale datasets necessary to test hypotheses have not been available until...
Climate change might drive species declines by altering interactions, such as host-parasite interactions. However, few studies have combined experiments, field data, and historical climate records to provide evidence that an interaction between disease caused any host declines. A recently proposed hypothesis, the thermal mismatch could identify are vulnerable under because it predicts cool- warm-adapted hosts should be at unusually warm cool temperatures, respectively. Here, we conduct...
Climate change alters disease risks appears to be provoking changes in the patterns and intensity of infectious diseases. For example, when conditions are cool, amphibians from warm climates experience greater burdens infection by chytrid fungus than hosts cool regions. Cohen et al. undertook a global metanalysis 383 studies test whether this “thermal mismatch” hypothesis holds true over gamut host-pathogen relationships. The authors combined date location data with selection host parasite...
Climate change is expected to have complex effects on infectious diseases, causing some increase, others decrease, and many shift their distributions. There been several important advances in understanding the role of climate wildlife human disease dynamics over past years. This essay examines 3 major areas advancement, which include improvements mechanistic models, investigations into importance variability dynamics, consequences thermal mismatches between host parasites. Applying new...
People often assume that, because of their special knowledge, others will be influenced by mass media messages while they remain relatively untouched. This experiment uses negative political advertisements to find that when subjects saw own candidates attacked, reported were not much influenced, but said would be. Conversely, an attack on a candidate disliked, themselves less likely think These trends worked more for advertising about Democratic Michael Dukakis than those the Republican...
Extreme weather, including heat waves, droughts, and high rainfall, is becoming more common affecting a diversity of species taxa. However, researchers lack framework that can anticipate how diverse will respond to weather extremes spanning weeks months. Here we used high-resolution occurrence data from eBird, global citizen science initiative, dynamic distribution models examine 109 North American bird ranging in migration distance, diet, body size, habitat preference, prevalence...
Abstract Context Species distribution models are widely used in ecology. The selection of environmental variables is a critical step SDMs, nowadays compounded by the increasing availability data. Objectives To evaluate interaction between grain size and binary (presence or absence water) proportional (proportion water within cell) representation cover variable when modeling bird species distribution. Methods eBird occurrence data with an average number records 880,270 per across North...
In 2015 the US federal government sponsored a dengue forecasting competition using historical case data from Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Competitors were evaluated on several aspects of out-of-sample forecasts including targets peak week, incidence during that total season across each seasons. Our team was one winners competition, outperforming other teams in multiple targets/locales. this paper we report our methodology, large component which, surprisingly, ignores known...
For a standard convolutional neural network, optimizing over the input pixels to maximize score of some target class will generally produce grainy-looking version original image. However, Santurkar et al. (2019) demonstrated that for adversarially-trained networks, this optimization produces images uncannily resemble class. In paper, we show these "perceptually-aligned gradients" also occur under randomized smoothing, an alternative means constructing adversarially-robust classifiers. Our...