A5058343329- Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies
- Psychology of Moral and Emotional Judgment
- Economic and Environmental Valuation
- Sports Analytics and Performance
- Behavioral Health and Interventions
- Social and Intergroup Psychology
- Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
- Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
- Psychology of Social Influence
- Economic Theory and Institutions
- Psychological Well-being and Life Satisfaction
- Data Analysis with R
- Consumer Market Behavior and Pricing
- Cultural Differences and Values
- Emotions and Moral Behavior
- Multi-Criteria Decision Making
- Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence
- Leadership, Behavior, and Decision-Making Studies
- Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics
- Mental Health Research Topics
- Consumer Behavior in Brand Consumption and Identification
- Law, Economics, and Judicial Systems
- Innovation, Sustainability, Human-Machine Systems
University of Pennsylvania
2015-2024
California University of Pennsylvania
2014-2023
Stony Brook University
2017
University of California, Berkeley
1999-2015
William P. Wharton Trust
2015
University of California System
2004
The Ohio State University
1997-2002
University of Chicago Medical Center
1998
University of Illinois Chicago
1998
University of Florida
1998
In this article the authors develop a descriptive theory of choice using anticipated emotions. People are assumed to anticipate how they will feel about outcomes decisions and use their predictions guide choice. The measure pleasure associated with monetary gambles offer an account judged called decision affect theory. Then propose choices between based on pleasure. choose option greater subjective expected Similarities differences utility discussed. Emotions have powerful effects Our actual...
How do people feel about the outcomes of risky options? Results from two experiments demonstrate that emotional reaction to a monetary outcome is not simple function utility Emotional responses also depend on probabilities and unobtained Unexpected have greater impact than expected Furthermore any given less pleasant if an better We propose account experiences associated with decisions called decision affect theory It incorporates utilities expectations counterfactual comparisons into...
When making decisions, people often anticipate the emotions they might experience as a result of outcomes their choices. In process, simulate what life would be like with one outcome or another. We examine anticipated and actual pleasure relation to choices make in laboratory studies real-world studies. offer theory that explains why same can lead wide range emotional experiences. Finally, we show how relates risky choice within framework subjective expected theory.
The present article offers an approach to scientific debate called adversarial collaboration. requires both parties agree on empirical tests for resolving a dispute and conduct these with the help of arbiter. In were Hertwig's claims that frequency formats eliminate conjunction effects previously reported by Kahneman Tversky occurred because some participants interpreted word “and” in “bank tellers feminists” as union operator. Hertwig proposed two new phrases, “and are” “who are,” would...
Most economists define rationality in terms of consistency principles. These principles place “bounds” on rationality—bounds that range from perfect to weak stochastic transitivity. Several decades research preferential choice has demonstrated how and when people violate these bounds. Many violations are interconnected reflect systematic behavioral We discuss the robustness review theories able predict them. further adaptive functions violations. From this perspective, choices do more than...
Five university-based research groups competed to recruit forecasters, elicit their predictions, and aggregate those predictions assign the most accurate probabilities events in a 2-year geopolitical forecasting tournament. Our group tested found support for three psychological drivers of accuracy: training, teaming, tracking. Probability training corrected cognitive biases, encouraged forecasters use reference classes, provided with heuristics, such as averaging when multiple estimates were...
Abstract Errors in estimating and forecasting often result from the failure to collect consider enough relevant information. We examine whether attributes associated with persistence information acquisition can predict performance an estimation task. focus on actively open-minded thinking (AOT), need for cognition, grit, tendency maximize or satisfice when making decisions. In three studies, participants made estimates predictions of uncertain quantities, varying levels control over amount...
Across a wide range of tasks, research has shown that people make poor probabilistic predictions future events. Recently, the U.S. Intelligence Community sponsored series forecasting tournaments designed to explore best strategies for generating accurate subjective probability estimates geopolitical In this article, we describe winning strategy: culling off top performers each year and assigning them into elite teams superforecasters. Defying expectations regression toward mean 2 years in...
Abstract To successfully select and implement nudges, policy makers need a psychological understanding of who opposes how they are perceived, when alternative methods (e.g., forced choice) might work better. Using two representative samples, we examined four factors that influence U.S. attitudes toward nudges – types individual dispositions, nudge perceptions, frames. Most were supported, although opt-out defaults for organ donations opposed in both samples. “System 1” sequential orderings)...
This article extends psychological methods and concepts into a domain that is as profoundly consequential it poorly understood: intelligence analysis. We report findings from geopolitical forecasting tournament assessed the accuracy of more than 150,000 forecasts 743 participants on 199 events occurring over 2 years. Participants were above average in political knowledge relative to general population. Individual differences performance emerged, skills surprisingly consistent time. Key...
Do larger incomes make people happier? Two authors of the present paper have published contradictory answers. Using dichotomous questions about preceding day, [Kahneman and Deaton, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 107 , 16489–16493 (2010)] reported a flattening pattern: happiness increased steadily with log(income) up to threshold then plateaued. experience sampling continuous scale, [Killingsworth, 118 e2016976118 (2021)] linear-log pattern in which average rose consistently log(income). We...
Theory: We examine the relationship between blatant racial prejudice and anger toward affirmative action. Hypotheses: (1) Blatantly prejudiced attitudes continue to pervade white population in United States. (2) Resistance action is more than an extension of this prejudice. (3) White resistance not unyielding unalterably fixed. Methods: Analysis experiments embedded a national survey attitudes. Some these are designed measure unobtrusively. Results: Racial remains major problem States, but...
Two experiments examined the effects of pictorial realism, observer interactivity, and delay visual feedback on sense “presence.” Subjects were presented pairs virtual environments (a simulated driving task) that differed In one or more ways from each other. After subjects had completed second member pair they reported which two produced greater amount presence indicated size this difference by means a 1-100 scale. As predicted, realism interactivity increased while diminished it. According...
Michael H. BirnbaumUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignBarbara A. MellersUniversity California, BerkeleySubjects made judgments the probability an event given base-rate informationand opinion a source. Base rate and source's hit false-alarm rateswere manipulated in within-subjects design. Hit weremanipulated to produce sources varied expertise bias. The base rate, thesource's opinion, bias all had large systematic effects.Although there was no evidence fallacy, neither Bayes'...
Because of counterfactual comparisons, good outcomes that could have been better (i.e., disappointing wins) and bad worse relieving losses) elicit relatively middling ratings on bipolar emotion scales. We conducted two experiments with gambles to examine whether such neutral emotions, sequentially mixed emotions positive negative affect, or simultaneously emotions. In Experiment 1, static unipolar measures affect revealed wins losses rather than 2, participants provided continuous by...
Political economists agree that a trade-offexists between equality and efficiency. Using hypothetical society paradigm, we manipulated the mean income (representing efficiency) variability equality) of distributions wealth correlation effort within society. Subjects made all pairwise comparisons societies differing meritocracy. A maximin principle best described trade-off resolution strategies when outcome were weakly linked: People maximized minimum standard living compromise preferences...
We report the results of first large-scale, long-term, experimental test between two crowdsourcing methods: prediction markets and polls. More than 2,400 participants made forecasts on 261 events over seasons a geopolitical tournament. Forecasters were randomly assigned to either (continuous double auction markets) in which they ranked based earnings, or polls submitted probability judgments, independently teams, Brier scores. In both tournament, prices from market more accurate simple mean...