A5019357522- Climate variability and models
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Energy Load and Power Forecasting
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Arctic and Russian Policy Studies
- Climate change and permafrost
- Geological and Geophysical Studies
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Environmental and Agricultural Sciences
- Geological Studies and Exploration
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Remote Sensing and Land Use
- Smart Grid and Power Systems
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
2016-2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction
2016-2025
East China University of Technology
2025
Portland State University
2025
China University of Geosciences
2025
University Research Co (United States)
2013-2024
The First Hospital of Changsha
2024
Predict (France)
2022-2023
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
2023
APEC Climate Center
2023
The present study documents seasonal rainfall anomalies in East Asia during different phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using station and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis for period 1951–2000 through lag–lead correlation/regression extended singular value decomposition analyses. ENSO-related consist two major evolving centers action: one positive other negative. center action affects southern China, eastern central Japan fall an ENSO developing year following spring. negative is over...
Editor’s note: For easy download the posted pdf of State Climate for 2016 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy report available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take few minutes file to download.
Multi-year El Niño events induce severe and persistent floods droughts worldwide, with significant socioeconomic impacts, but the causes of their long-lasting behaviors are still not fully understood. Here we present a two-way feedback mechanism between tropics extratropics to argue that extratropical atmospheric variability associated North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) is key source multi-year events. The NPO during boreal winter can trigger Central subsequent winter, which excites...
Abstract In 2023, the development of El Niño is poised to drive a global upsurge in surface air temperatures (SAT), potentially resulting unprecedented warming worldwide. Nevertheless, regional patterns SAT anomalies remain diverse, obscuring where historical records may be surpassed forthcoming year. Our study underscores significant influence and persistence climate signals on inter-annual variability SAT, both amplitude spatial distribution. The likelihood mean exceeding records,...
In this work, the authors analyze observed long‐term variations of seasonal climate in China and then investigate possible influence increases greenhouse gas concentrations on these by comparing observations with simulations second phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2). The precipitation temperature are highly seasonally dependent. main characteristic summer is a drying trend north wetting central part. winter shows an increasing southern eastern‐central China. Interesting...
Interdecadal variability of summer climate (rainfall and temperature) in East Asia (China Japan) its association with the anomalies geopotential heights at 500 hPa over Northern Hemisphere (NH), global sea surface temperature (SSTA), outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) were examined. An abrupt change was found middle by end 1970s variations time coefficients second mode singular value decomposition (SVD2) for rainfall China. The anomaly around 1977–1979 changes from above normal to below...
This paper is concernd with interannual and interdecadal variabilities of summer rainfall temperature patterns in China their association 500 hPa height the Northern Hemisphere (NH), tropical convective activities global sea surface anomaly (SSTA). The temporal evolutions spatial structures variation (JJA) from 1951 to 1994 over are revealed through EOF analysis. pattern EOF1 for (EOF1.R) dominated by a maximum middle-lower reaches Yangtze River, large negative value region middle reach...
Abstract An interdecadal shift in the variability and mean state of tropical Pacific Ocean is investigated within context changes El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Compared with 1979–99, interannual was significantly weaker 2000–11, this can be seen by coherent both atmosphere ocean. For example, equatorial thermocline tilt became steeper during which consistent positive (negative) sea surface temperature anomalies, increased (decreased) precipitation, enhanced (suppressed) convection...
Abstract The prediction skill and bias of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in the retrospective forecasts Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), National Centers for Environmental Prediction were examined. CFSv2 was initialized from System Reanalysis (CFSR) over 1982–2010. There a systematic cold central–eastern equatorial during summer/fall. Niño-3.4 index about −2.5°C summer/fall before 1999 but suddenly changed to −1°C around 1999, related sudden shift trade winds...
According to the classical theories of ENSO, subsurface anomalies in ocean thermal structure are precursors for ENSO events and their initial specification is essential skillful forecast. Although salinity tropical Pacific (particularly western warm pool) can vary response El Niño events, its effect on evolution forecasts has been less explored. Here we present evidence that, addition passive response, variability may also play an active role thus important forecasting events. By comparing...
A principal component decomposition of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean demonstrates that nearly all linear trends during 1950–2010 are found two leading patterns. The first SST pattern is strongly related to canonical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern. second shares characteristics with and its existence solely depends on presence across Ocean. also uncovers a third pattern, often referred as ENSO Modoki, but trend small dataset...
Editors note: For easy download the posted pdf of State Climate for 2013 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy report available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take few minutes file to download.
Abstract The strength of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is often measured using a single, discrete value the Niño index. However, this method does not consider sea surface temperature (SST) uncertainty associated with observations and data processing. On basis Niño3.4 index its uncertainty, we find that three strongest ENSO events separable at 95% confidence level. monthly peak SST anomalies in most recent 2015–2016 tied 1997–1998 1982–1983 as strongest. negative values occur within...
Abstract In this work, the evolution and prediction of persistent remarkable warm sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in northeastern Pacific during October 2013–June 2016 are examined. Based on experiments with an atmospheric model, possible contribution SSTAs different ocean basins to circulation anomalies is identified. Further, through verifying real-time forecasts, current capabilities predicting such extreme event a state-of-the-art coupled general model assessed. During...
Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation is the strongest interannual variability in tropical oceans and major source of global climate predictability. In this work, we examine evolution oceanic atmospheric anomalies Pacific during 2020/2021 La Niña compare it with historical strong events since 1982, identify contributions different time scale components, assess predictions impact on extra‐tropical climate. emerged August 2020 dissipated May 2021. was uniquely preceded by a borderline Niño...
Abstract This study compares the evolution of atmospheric and oceanic anomalies as well predictions for two most recent triple‐dip La Niña events in 1998–2001 2020–2023. Subsurface cooling equatorial Pacific was stronger more persistent during 1998–2001. In contrast, surface easterly winds were 2020–2023 east‐west sea temperature (SST) contrast along equator. We argue that absence appreciable heat discharge, strong trade a strengthened mean zonal SST across tropical contributed to...
Abstract The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), renowned as the dominant sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuation in North and extensively scrutinized for its extensive influence on global climate patterns, stands stark contrast to Victoria mode (VM). Traditionally, VM, representing second most prominent SST pattern Pacific, has not garnered comparable attention. However, our investigation unveils a remarkable surge low-frequency VM variability, spanning periods greater than 8 years, over...
Abstract In 2023, the world experienced its highest ever global mean surface temperature (GMST). Our study underscores pivotal significance of El Niño and sea (SST) warming as fundamental causes. Interannually, increment GMST in 2023 comprised two phases: first, gradual ocean associated with North Atlantic from January to August; second, a continued rise land temperatures mid‐to‐high latitude regions September onwards, influenced by SST patterns. Notably, maturation prolonged America through...
The Asian summer monsoon response to global warming is investigated by a transient green‐house integration with the ECHAM4/OPYC3 CGCM. It demonstrated that increases of greenhouse gas concentrations intensify and its variability. intensified results mainly from an enhanced land‐sea contrast northward shift convergence zone. A gradual increase variability simulated year 2030 onwards. seems be connected corresponding sea surface temperature over tropical Pacific.