A5032785812- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Climate variability and models
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Dam Engineering and Safety
- Climate change and permafrost
- Water resources management and optimization
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Reservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Characterization and Applications of Magnetic Nanoparticles
- Simulation Techniques and Applications
- Software Reliability and Analysis Research
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Atomic and Subatomic Physics Research
- Agricultural risk and resilience
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Urban, Neighborhood, and Segregation Studies
- Soil Moisture and Remote Sensing
- Real-time simulation and control systems
NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory
2017-2025
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2010-2024
Physical Sciences (United States)
2016-2023
NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
2013-2022
University of Colorado Boulder
2013-2021
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences
2005-2021
McCormick (United States)
2021
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
2021
University of Nebraska–Lincoln
2021
Aspen Global Change Institute
2021
Abstract. The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is an international collaborative effort to understand and quantify the uncertainties in atmospheric river (AR) science based on detection algorithm alone. Currently, there are many AR identification tracking algorithms literature with a wide range of techniques conclusions. ARTMIP strives provide community information different methodologies guidance most appropriate for given question or region interest. All...
Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are now widely known for their association with high‐impact weather events and long‐term water supply in many regions. Researchers within the scientific community have developed numerous methods to identify track of ARs—a necessary step analyses on gridded data sets, objective attribution impacts ARs. These different been answer specific research questions hence use criteria (e.g., geometry, threshold values key variables, time dependence). Furthermore,...
Abstract During the second week of September 2013, a seasonally uncharacteristic weather pattern stalled over Rocky Mountain Front Range region northern Colorado bringing with it copious amounts moisture from Gulf Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. This feed was funneled toward east-facing mountain slopes through series mesoscale circulation features, resulting in several days unusually widespread heavy rainfall steep mountainous terrain. Catastrophic flooding ensued...
Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are a dominant mechanism for generating intense wintertime precipitation along the U.S. West Coast. While studies over past 10 years have explored impact of ARs in, and west of, California’s Sierra Nevada Pacific Northwest’s Cascade Mountains, their influence on weather across intermountain remains an open question. This study utilizes gridded atmospheric datasets, satellite imagery, rawinsonde soundings, 449-MHz wind profiler global positioning system (GPS)...
Abstract An analysis of atmospheric rivers (ARs) as defined by an automated AR detection tool based on integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and the connection to heavy precipitation in southeast United States (SEUS) is performed. Climatological fields are compared between U.S. West Coast (WCUS) SEUS, highlighting stronger seasonal variation SEUS IVT WCUS. The climatological suggests that values above ~500 kg m −1 s (as incorporated into objective identification such used here) may serve a...
Abstract This paper documents the characteristics of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in southeastern United States (SEUS) during 2002–11. The EPEs are identified by applying an object-based method to 24-h analyses from NCEP stage-IV dataset. It is found that affected SEUS all months and occurred most frequently western portion cool season eastern warm season. associated with tropical cyclones, although less common, tended be larger size, more intense, longer lived than “nontropical”...
Abstract The NOAA National Water Model (NWM) became operational in August 2016, producing the first ever real-time, distributed, continuous set of hydrologic forecasts over continental United States (CONUS). This project uses integrated hydrometeorological assessment methods to investigate utility NWM predict catastrophic flooding associated with an extreme rainfall event that occurred Ellicott City, Maryland, on 27–28 May 2018. Short-range (0–18-h lead time) from version 1.2 are explored,...
Abstract A high-resolution case-based approach for dynamically downscaling climate model data is presented. Extreme precipitation events are selected from regional (RCM) simulations of past and future time periods. Each event further downscaled using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) Model to storm scale (1.3-km grid spacing). The used investigate changes in extreme projections a period, as well how projected intensity distribution differ between RCM (50-km spacing) local Three...
Abstract Recent and historical events illustrate the vulnerabilities of U.S. west to extremes in precipitation that result from a range meteorological phenomena. This vision provides an approach mitigating impacts such weather water is tailored unique conditions user needs Western 21st Century. It includes observations for tracking, predicting, managing occurrence major storms informed by user‐requirements, workshops, scientific advances, technological demonstrations. The recommends...
Abstract This manuscript documents numerical modeling experiments based on a January 2010 atmospheric river (AR) event that caused extreme precipitation in Arizona. The control experiment (CNTL), using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with 3-km grid spacing, agrees well observations. Sensitivity which 1) model spacing decreases sequentially from 81 to 3 km 2) upstream terrain is elevated are used assess sensitivity of interior amounts horizontal water vapor fluxes resolution...
Abstract Two methods were used to identify the paths of moisture transport that reach U.S. Intermountain West (IMW) during heavy precipitation events in winter. In first, top 150 at stations located within six regions IMW identified, and then back trajectories initiated 6-h intervals on those days four Climate Forecast System Reanalysis grid points nearest stations. The second method identified leading patterns integrated water vapor (IVT) using three empirical orthogonal functions IVT over...
Abstract Model simulations of the 2013 Colorado Front Range floods are performed using 4-km horizontal grid spacing to evaluate impact explicit convection (EC) versus parameterized (CP) in model convective physics “gray zone.” Significant differences heavy precipitation forecasts found across multiple regions which rain and high-impact flooding occurred. The relative contribution CP-generated total suggests that greater CP scheme activity areas upstream may have led significant downstream...
Abstract Improving probabilistic streamflow forecasts is critical for a multitude of water-oriented applications. Errors in water arise from several sources, one which the driving meteorology. Meteorological are often statistically post-processed before being input into hydrologic models. Shifts towards ensemble weather prediction systems have propelled advances post-processing, providing an opportunity to enhance forecasting. This study’s purpose implement and evaluate impact coupling...
Abstract Despite advancements in numerical modeling and the increasing prevalence of convection-allowing guidance, flash flood forecasting remains a substantial challenge. Accurate forecasts depend not only on accurate quantitative precipitation (QPFs), but also an understanding corresponding hydrologic response. To advance forecast skill, innovative guidance products that blend meteorology hydrology are needed, as well comprehensive verification dataset to identify areas need improvement....
Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are well-known producers of precipitation along the U.S. West Coast. Depending on their intensity, orientation, and location landfall, some ARs penetrate inland cause heavy rainfall flooding hundreds miles from coast. Climate change is projected to potentially alter a variety AR characteristics impacts. This study examines potential future changes in moisture transport type, distribution for high-impact landfalling event Pacific Northwest using an ensemble...
Abstract The Bay Area of California and surrounding region receives much its annual precipitation during the October–March wet season, when atmospheric river events bring periods heavy rain that challenge water managers may exceed capacity storm sewer systems. complex terrain this further complicates situation, with interactions are not currently captured in most operational forecast models inadequate measurements to capture large variability throughout area. To improve monitoring prediction...
Abstract The use of the potential vorticity (PV) framework by operational forecasters is advocated through case examples that demonstrate its utility for interpreting and evaluating numerical weather prediction (NWP) model output systems characterized strong latent heat release (LHR). interpretation dynamical influence LHR straightforward in PV framework; can lead to generation lower-tropospheric cyclonic anomalies. These anomalies be related meteorological phenomena including extratropical...
Abstract Momentum transport is examined in a simulated midlatitude mesoscale convective system (MCS) to investigate its contribution MCS motion. budgets are computed using model output quantify the role of specific processes determining low-level wind field system’s surface-based cold pool. Results show that toward leading line and near edge pool, momentum most strongly determined by vertical advection storm-induced perturbation wind. Across middle rear system, largely product pressure...
Abstract Forecasts by mid-2015 for a strong El Niño during winter 2015/16 presented an exceptional scientific opportunity to accelerate advances in understanding and predictions of extreme climate event its impacts while the was ongoing . Seizing this opportunity, National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) initiated Rapid Response (ENRR), conducting first field campaign obtain intensive atmospheric observations over tropical Pacific Niño. The overarching ENRR goal determine response...
Abstract The climatology of Colorado’s historical extreme precipitation events shows a remarkable degree seasonal and regional variability. Analysis the largest daily totals at COOP stations across Colorado by season indicates that recorded have ranged from less than 60 mm day−1 in some areas to more 250 others. East Continental Divide, winter are rarely among top 10 given site, but spring dominate near foothills; summer most common lower-elevation eastern plains, while fall typical for...
Abstract Understanding future precipitation changes is critical for water supply and flood risk applications in the western United States. The North American COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (NA-CORDEX) matrix of global regional climate models at multiple resolutions (~ 50-km 25-km grid spacings) used to evaluate mean monthly precipitation, extreme daily snow equivalent (SWE) over States, with a sub-regional focus on California. Results indicate significant model spread several...
Abstract Accurate estimation of the potential “upper limit” for extreme precipitation is critical dam safety and water resources management, as failures pose significant risks to life property. Methods used estimate theoretical upper limit are often outdated in need updating. The rarity events means that old storms with limited observational data define bound precipitation. Observations many important spatial temporal coverage, sometimes dubious quality. This reduces confidence flood hazard...
Abstract. The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is an international collaborative effort to understand and quantify the uncertainties in atmospheric river (AR) science based on detection algorithm alone. Currently, there are many AR identification tracking algorithms literature with a wide range of techniques conclusions. ARTMIP strives provide community information different methodologies guidance most appropriate for given question or region interest. All...
Abstract Water is a critical resource that causes significant challenges to inhabitants of the western United States. These are likely intensify as result expanding population and climate-related changes act reduce runoff in areas complex terrain. To better understand physical processes drive transition mountain precipitation streamflow, National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration has deployed suites environmental sensors throughout East River watershed Colorado part Study Precipitation,...