A5084250077- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Smart Materials for Construction
- Climate change and permafrost
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
- Landslides and related hazards
- Fire effects on ecosystems
- Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Infrastructure Maintenance and Monitoring
- Arctic and Russian Policy Studies
- Air Quality Monitoring and Forecasting
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Water Quality and Resources Studies
- Earthquake Detection and Analysis
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
2017-2025
University of California, San Diego
2017-2025
Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
2024
University of Hong Kong
2024
NOAA National Weather Service
2013-2023
NOAA National Weather Service Western Region
2013-2023
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2015-2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction
2020
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
2020
NOAA Environmental Modeling Center
2020
Abstract Narrow corridors of water vapor transport known as atmospheric rivers (ARs) contribute to extreme precipitation and flooding along the West Coast United States, but knowledge their influence over interior is limited. Here, authors use Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data, Climate Prediction Center (CPC) analyses, Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) observations describe characteristics cool-season (November–April) ARs western...
Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play vital roles in the western United States and related regions globally, not only producing heavy precipitation flooding, but also providing beneficial water supply. This paper introduces a scale for intensity impacts of ARs. Its utility may be greatest where ARs are most impactful storm type hurricanes, nor’easters, tornadoes nearly nonexistent. Two parameters dominate hydrologic outcomes ARs: vertically integrated vapor transport (IVT) AR duration...
Abstract. The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is an international collaborative effort to understand and quantify the uncertainties in atmospheric river (AR) science based on detection algorithm alone. Currently, there are many AR identification tracking algorithms literature with a wide range of techniques conclusions. ARTMIP strives provide community information different methodologies guidance most appropriate for given question or region interest. All...
Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are now widely known for their association with high‐impact weather events and long‐term water supply in many regions. Researchers within the scientific community have developed numerous methods to identify track of ARs—a necessary step analyses on gridded data sets, objective attribution impacts ARs. These different been answer specific research questions hence use criteria (e.g., geometry, threshold values key variables, time dependence). Furthermore,...
Abstract A new method for automatic detection of atmospheric rivers (ARs) is developed and applied to an reanalysis, yielding extensive catalog ARs land‐falling along the west coast North America during 1948–2017. This provides a large array variables that can be used examine AR cases their climate‐scale variability in exceptional detail. The record activity, as presented, validated examined here, perspective on seasonal cycle interannual‐interdecadal activity affecting hydroclimate western...
Abstract Atmospheric rivers, or long but narrow regions of enhanced water vapor transport, are an important component the hydrologic cycle as they responsible for much poleward transport and result in precipitation, sometimes extreme intensity. Despite their importance, uncertainty remains detection atmospheric rivers large datasets such reanalyses century scale climate simulations. To understand this uncertainty, River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) developed tiered...
© 2017 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: F. Martin Ralph, mralph@ucsd.edu
Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) have increasingly been recognized for their contribution to high‐impact weather and climate variability. A recent investigation based on observations located primarily in lowland valleys basins of the western United States suggests that 10–50% total cool season (November April) precipitation between water years 1998 2008 occurred day following AR landfall (hereafter fraction), as identified using Special Sensor Microwave Imager data. However, these results...
Abstract Although atmospheric rivers (ARs) typically weaken following landfall, those that penetrate inland can contribute to heavy precipitation and high-impact weather within the interior of western North America. In this paper, authors examine evolution ARs over America using trajectories released at 950 700 hPa cool-season along Pacific coast. These are classified as coastal decaying, penetrating, or penetrating based on whether they remain an AR upon reaching selected transects...
The Atmospheric River (AR) Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is a community effort to systematically assess how the uncertainties from AR detectors (ARDTs) impact our scientific understanding of ARs. This study describes ARTMIP Tier 2 experimental design and initial results using Coupled Model (CMIP) Phases 5 6 multi-model ensembles. We show that statistics given ARDT in CMIP5/6 historical simulations compare remarkably well with MERRA-2 reanalysis. In future simulations, most...
Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) constitute an important mechanism for water vapor transport, but research on their characteristics and impacts has relied a diverse assortment of detection methodologies, complicating comparisons. The AR Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) provides platform comparing such analysis ARTMIP catalogues heretofore focused primarily specific regions. Here we investigate ARs as detected by ensemble algorithms with global coverage. We find that the...
Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow synoptic scale weather features important for Earth’s hydrological cycle typically transporting water vapor poleward, delivering precipitation local climates. Understanding ARs in a warming climate is problematic because the AR response to change tied how feature defined. The River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) provides insights into this problem by comparing 16 atmospheric river detection tools (ARDTs) common data set...
Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long and narrow corridors of enhanced vertically integrated water vapor (IWV) IWV transport (IVT) within the warm sector extra tropical cyclones that can produce heavy precipitation flooding in regions complex terrain, especially along U.S. West Coast. Several field campaigns have investigated ARs under CalWater program studies. The first phase during 2009–11 increased number observations aerosols, among other parameters, across California sampled...
Abstract Water management and flood control are major challenges in the western United States. They heavily influenced by atmospheric river (AR) storms that produce both beneficial water supply hazards; for example, 84% of all damages West (up to 99% key areas) associated with ARs. However, AR landfall forecast position errors can exceed 200 km at even 1-day lead time yet many watersheds <100 across, which contributes issues such as 2017 Oroville Dam spillway incident regularly large...
* CURRENT AFFILIATIONS: T. A. O'Brien—Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana; Patricola—Geological Iowa State Ames, Iowa; J. O'Brien—National Center for Research, Boulder, Colorado© 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).Corresponding author: Travis O'Brien, obrienta@iu.edu
Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are filamentary structures within the atmosphere that account for a substantial portion of poleward moisture transport and play an important role in Earth's hydroclimate. However, there is no one quantitative definition what constitutes atmospheric river, leading to uncertainty quantifying how these systems respond global change. This study seeks better understand different AR detection tools (ARDTs) changes climate states utilizing single‐forcing model...
The U.S. National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) is sponsoring development of an atmospheric river (AR) climate data record (CDR) to serve as a valuable resource the scientific, water management, and decision-making communities across Western US (and soon, globally). CDR uses novel combination two techniques: (1) AR Scale, which broadly characterizes strength from 1-5 based on peak integrated vapor transport (IVT) duration conditions (i.e., IVT &#8805; 250 kg m-1 s-1) at...
The Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information Project (AQPI) provides supplemental radar observations across the Greater San Francisco Bay Area &#8211; specifically, 4 X-band radars (3 already installed) and 1 C-band radar, by end of 2025. These new complement existing network filling horizontal vertical gaps in coverage caused terrain blockage distance from radars. Additionally, operate at a much higher spatial temporal resolution than network. Together, these aspects provide for...
Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) come in all intensities, and clear communication of risks posed by individual storms observations forecasts can be a challenge. Modest ARs characterized the percentile rank their integrated water vapor transport (IVT) rates compared to past ARs. Stronger categorized more clearly terms return periods or, equivalently, historical probabilities that at least one AR will exceed given IVT threshold any year. Based on 1980–2016 chronology landfalls U.S. West Coast...
Abstract The occurrence of atmospheric rivers (ARs) in association with avalanche fatalities is evaluated the conterminous western United States between 1998 and 2014 using archived reports, reanalysis products, an existing AR catalog, weather station observations. conditions were present during or preceding 105 unique incidents resulting 123 fatalities, thus comprising 31% U.S. fatalities. Coastal snow climates had highest percentage coinciding (31%–65%), followed by intermountain (25%–46%)...