A5037245840- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Climate variability and models
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Climate change and permafrost
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Arctic and Russian Policy Studies
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Icing and De-icing Technologies
- Pericarditis and Cardiac Tamponade
- Advanced Control Systems Optimization
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Medical Imaging and Pathology Studies
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Polar Research and Ecology
- Tree-ring climate responses
- Cardiac tumors and thrombi
- Distributed Control Multi-Agent Systems
- Inorganic Fluorides and Related Compounds
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
University of Exeter
2023-2025
University of California, Santa Cruz
2021-2024
University of North Carolina Wilmington
2020-2022
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
2020-2022
University of California, San Diego
2020-2022
Columbia University
2015-2020
Abstract Arctic Amplification is robustly seen in climate model simulations of future warming and the paleoclimate record. Here, we focus on past century observations. We show that only a recent phenomenon, for much this period cooled while global‐mean temperature rose. To investigate why occurred, analyze large ensembles comprehensive under different forcing scenarios. Our results suggest global from greenhouse gases was largely offset by regional cooling due to aerosols, with internal...
Abstract Over the last half century, Arctic sea ice cover has declined dramatically. Current estimates suggest that, for as a whole, nearly one-half of observed loss summer is not due to anthropogenic forcing but rather internal variability. Using 40 members Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE), our analysis provides first regional assessment role variability on loss. The CESM-LE one best available models such an analysis, because it performs better than other CMIP5 many...
Abstract Models project that Antarctic sea ice area will decline considerably by the end of this century, but consequences remain largely unexplored. Here, atmospheric response to future loss in is investigated, and contrasted Arctic case, using Community Earth Systems Model (CESM) Whole Atmosphere Coupled Climate (WACCM). Time-slice model runs with historic concentrations are compared concentrations, from late twenty-first each hemisphere separately. As for Arctic, results indicate act...
New model of giant Antarctic icebergs produces simulations that match satellite observations, with implications for climate.
Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global models. Evaluation the reliability model projections involves many lines evidence on past performance combined with knowledge processes that need to be represented. Routine evaluation is mainly based modern observational period, which started establishment a network weather stations in 1957/58. This period too short evaluate fundamental aspects and Southern Ocean system, such as decadal-to-century...
Abstract The effect of stratospheric ozone depletion on the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), a climatological low‐pressure center important for climate West Antarctica, remains uncertain. Using state‐of‐the‐art models, we here show that can cause statistically significant deepening ASL in summer with an amplitude approximately 1 hPa per decade. We are able to attribute modeled changes by contrasting ensembles historical integrations and without realistic hole. In presence very large natural...
Methane is a potent greenhouse gas which has substantially contributed to climate change since the pre-industrial era, second only in importance carbon dioxide. Due its short atmospheric lifetime and high global warming potential, methane emissions have disproportionately large impacts on near-term change. Beyond direct role as gas, also other important implications for climate, human health, air quality vegetation, largely due impact tropospheric ozone. Thus, reducing been identified key...
Since the beginning of satellite era in 1979, September sea ice area over Arctic has nearly halved, and rapid decline early 2000s fueled concerns that first ice-free summer could occur before 2020.  In light these dire forecasts, therefore, it is remarkable no statistically significant coverage occurred past two decades, as we demonstrate here.This 20-year-long hiatus pan-Arctic robust across observational datasets, also to choice metric (sea or extent). fact, present seen all...
<title>Abstract</title> Despite the continuous global warming, over past several decades, tropical East Pacific has experienced a cooling trend whose origin remains an area of active research. Mounting evidence linked sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns to changes in Southern Ocean via remote teleconnections. Using fully-coupled climate model, we demonstrate that stratospheric ozone depletion can produce La Niña-like SST pattern resembling recent observations. This response initially...
Abstract Over the coming century, both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice cover are projected to substantially decline. While many studies have documented potential impacts of loss on climate mid-latitudes tropics, little attention has been paid loss. Here, using comprehensive model simulations, we show that effects end-of-the-century extend much further than able produce considerable climate. Specifically, our indicates surface will warm by 1 °C extent decline 0.5 × 10 6 km 2 in response future...
Abstract Previous studies have used coupled climate model simulations with perturbed sea ice covers to assess the impact of future Arctic loss. The results these suggest that loss will cause substantial impacts in and beyond. approaches can be broadly categorized into three methods: adding a ghost flux module, nudging, modifying surface albedo. Here we show all methods ultimately add heat order melt ice, this artificial heating causes spurious warming signal is added occurs due alone. We...
Abstract A fundamental divide exists between previous studies that conclude polar amplification does not occur without sea ice and find is an inherent feature of the atmosphere independent ice. We hypothesize a representation climatological ocean heat transport key for simulating in ice-free climates. To investigate this, we run suite targeted experiments slab aquaplanet configuration CESM2-CAM6 with different profiles prescribed transport, which are invariant under CO 2 quadrupling. In...
Earth and Space Science Open Archive This preprint has been submitted to is under consideration at Geophysical Research Letters. ESSOAr a venue for early communication or feedback before peer review. Data may be preliminary.Learn more about preprints preprintOpen AccessYou are viewing the latest version by default [v1]The recent emergence of Arctic AmplificationAuthorsMarkEnglandiDIanEisenmaniDNicholasLutskoiDTill Jakob WenzelWagneriDSee all authors Mark EnglandiDCorresponding Author•...
Abstract Arctic amplification (AA)—the greater warming of the near-surface temperature relative to its global mean value—is a prominent feature climate response increasing greenhouse gases. Recent work has revealed importance ozone-depleting substances (ODS) in contributing and sea-ice loss. Here, using ensembles model integrations, we expand on that directly contrast from ODS carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), over 1955–2005 period when loading peaked. We find loss are slightly more than half...
Abstract Analyzing a multimodel ensemble of coupled climate model simulations forced with Arctic sea ice loss using two-parameter pattern-scaling technique to remove the cross-coupling between low- and high-latitude responses, sensitivity is isolated contrasted low-latitude warming. Despite some differences in experimental design, Northern Hemisphere near-surface atmospheric found be robust across models cold season; however, larger intermodel spread at surface boreal summer, free...
Abstract In this study, we investigate the drivers of observed multi‐decadal fluctuations in Arctic and Antarctic surface temperatures using multiple large ensembles climate simulations single‐forcing ensembles. We find that oscillation temperature around a linear trend since 1920 is forced response to emissions anthropogenic aerosols greenhouse gases. contrast, show are partially related Pacific decadal variability which influences West Antarctica. Lastly, demonstrate internally driven at...
Abstract Arctic amplification (AA), the greater surface warming compared to global average, has been widely attributed increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG). However, less is known about impacts other forcings - notably, anthropogenic aerosols (AER) and how they may compare GHG. Here we analyze sets climate model simulations, specifically designed isolate AER GHG effects on climate. Surprisingly, find stronger AA produced by than during 1955–1984 period, when strongest...
Abstract While previous studies have suggested a substantial role of ozone‐depleting substances (ODSs) in historical climate change, their relative contribution to anthropogenic warming has not been quantified before. Analyzing all‐but‐one‐forcing, 20‐member ensembles simulations with state‐of‐the‐art Earth System Model, we find that over the 1955–2005 period ODSs are responsible for 30% global warming, 37% Arctic and 33% summertime sea ice loss. Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF)...
The rapid melting of Arctic sea ice is the largest and clearest signal anthropogenic climate change. Current projections indicate that first ice-free summer will likely occur by mid-century, owing to increasing carbon dioxide concentrations in atmosphere. However, other powerful greenhouse gases have also contributed loss, notably ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). In late 1980s, ODSs became strictly regulated Montreal Protocol, their atmospheric been declining since mid-1990s. Here,...
Abstract The seasonal cycle is fundamental to the Earth's climate system, accounting for vast majority of temperature variance. Understanding how will change in future, and by when, a key question with important implications. Here 40‐member initial condition model ensemble used investigate influence internal variability on detection changes amplitude timing surface over Northern Hemisphere land response increasing greenhouse gases. Internal renders these challenging; even mid‐twenty‐first...
Abstract Extremes in the distribution of Southern Hemisphere stratospheric heat flux are connected simultaneously to anomalous high‐latitude tropospheric weather patterns reanalysis, consistent with results from Northern Hemisphere. The dynamical links revealed using a metric based on extreme planetary‐scale wave events, defined as 10th and 90th percentiles daily 1 at 50 hPa. We show negative (positive) events linked westward (eastward) shift Amundsen Sea Low warming (cooling) over...