Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 (pandemic H1N1) is spreading throughout the planet. It has become dominant strain in Southern Hemisphere, where season now ended. Here, on basis of reported case clusters United States, we estimated household secondary attack rate for pandemic H1N1 to be 27.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) from 12.2% 50.5%]. From a school outbreak, that typical schoolchild infects 2.4 (95% CI 1.8 3.2) other children within school. We basic reproductive number, R0, range 1.3...

By April 2, 2020, >1 million persons worldwide were infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We used a mathematical model to investigate the effectiveness of social distancing interventions in mid-sized city. Interventions reduced contacts adults >60 years age, 20-59 and children <19 age for 6 weeks. Our results suggest started earlier epidemic delay curve later flatten curve. noted that, while place, most new cases, hospitalizations, deaths averted, even modest...

The optimal use of COVID-19 vaccine depends mainly on how efficacious the is and many doses are available.

Abstract Most COVID-19 vaccines require two doses, however with limited vaccine supply, policymakers are considering single-dose vaccination as an alternative strategy. Using a mathematical model combined optimization algorithms, we determined optimal allocation strategies one and doses of under various degrees viral transmission. Under low transmission, show that the vitally depends on efficacy. With high efficacy, is optimal, preventing up to 22% more deaths than strategy prioritizing...

Abstract A vaccine, when available, will likely become our best tool to control the current COVID-19 pandemic. Even in most optimistic scenarios, vaccine shortages occur. Using an age-stratified mathematical model, we determined optimal allocation for four different metrics (deaths, symptomatic infections, and maximum non-ICU ICU hospitalizations) under a wide variety of assumptions. We find that with effectiveness ≥50% would be enough substantially mitigate ongoing pandemic provided high...

Abstract Trial results for two COVID-19 vaccines suggest at least 90% efficacy against symptomatic disease (VE DIS ). It remains unknown whether this is mediated by lowering SARS-CoV-2 infection susceptibility ( VE SUSC ) or development of symptoms after SYMP We aim to assess and compare the population impact with different profiles satisfying licensure criteria. developed a mathematical model transmission, calibrated data from King County, Washington. Rollout scenarios starting December...

New strains of influenza spread around the globe via movement infected individuals. The global dynamics are complicated by different patterns seasonality in regions world. We have released an open-source stochastic mathematical model across 321 major, strategically located cities Influenza is transmitted between airline passengers. Seasonality simulated increasing transmissibility each city at times year when has been observed to be most prevalent. spatiotemporal pandemic can understood...

With new cases of avian influenza H5N1 (H5N1AV) arising frequently, the threat a pandemic remains challenge for public health. Several vaccines have been developed specifically targeting H5N1AV, but their production is limited and only few million doses are readily available. Because there an important time lag between emergence strain development distribution vaccine, shortage vaccine very likely at beginning pandemic. We coupled mathematical model with genetic algorithm to optimally...

Most COVID-19 vaccines require two doses, however with limited vaccine supply, policymakers are considering single-dose vaccination as an alternative strategy. Using a mathematical model combined optimization algorithms, we determined optimal allocation strategies one and doses of under various degrees viral transmission. Under low transmission, show that the vitally depends on efficacy (SDE). With high SDE, is optimal, preventing up to 22% more deaths than strategy prioritizing two-dose for...

Despite the development of safe and effective vaccines, treatments for COVID-19 disease are still urgently needed. Several antiviral drugs have shown to be in reducing progression disease.

Several noninvasive tests for colorectal cancer screening are available, but their effectiveness in settings with low adherence to and follow-up colonoscopy is not well documented. To assess the cost-effectiveness of outcomes associated strategies, including new blood-based tests, a population ongoing surveillance colonoscopy. The validated microsimulation model used decision analytical modeling study projected from 2025 2124 simulated cohort 10 million individuals aged 50 years...

Background Pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 began spreading around the globe in April of and vaccination started October 2009. In most countries, by time started, second wave pandemic H1N1 was already under way. With limited supplies vaccine, we are left to question whether it may be a good strategy vaccinate high-transmission groups earlier epidemic, but might better use resources protect instead high-risk later epidemic. To answer this question, develop deterministic epidemic model with two...

Cholera was introduced into Haiti in 2010. Since then, more than 820 000 cases and nearly 10 deaths have been reported. Oral cholera vaccine (OCV) is safe effective, but has not seen as a primary tool for elimination due to limited period of protection constrained supplies. Regionally, epidemic contained the island Hispaniola, lowest numbers since began were reported 2019. Hence, may represent unique opportunity eliminate with OCV.

Abstract SARS-CoV-2 has infected over 140,000 people as of March 14, 2020. We use a mathematical model to investigate the effectiveness social distancing interventions lasting six weeks in middle-sized city US. explore four strategies by reducing contacts adults 60 years old, old and children, all (25, 75 or 95% compliance), everyone population. Our results suggest that can avert cases 20% hospitalizations deaths 90% even with modest compliance within long intervention is kept place, but...

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection occurs frequently in young children, who, when infected, are then a major source of transmission. Oral CMV shedding by 14 infants with primary was comprehensively characterized using quantitative polymerase chain reaction weekly for ≥9 months. Three phases oral were identified: expansion, transition, and clearance. Viral expansion occurred over median 7 weeks, doubling time 3 days. During the transition phase, slowed 6 weeks before peak viral load reached....

Human herpesviruses (HHV) establish lifelong latent infection and are transmitted primarily via shedding at mucosal surfaces. Each HHV causes a unique spectrum of disease depending on the infected individual's age immunity. We collected weekly oral swabs from young children mothers in 32 Ugandan households for median one year. characterized kinetics during primary chronic each virus. Cytomegalovirus (CMV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), HHV-6 were shed high rates following infection. The rate...

ABSTRACT Untreated human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is characterized by depletion of CD4 + T cells, ultimately leading to the impairment host immune defenses and death. HIV-infected cells die from direct virus-induced apoptosis CD8 T-cell-mediated elimination, but a broader more profound occurs in uninfected via multiple indirect effects infection. We fit mathematical models data experiments that tested an HIV eradication strategy which five macaques with proportion resistant...

There are many COVID-19 vaccines currently available, however, Low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) still have large proportions of their populations unvaccinated. Decision-makers must decide how to effectively allocate available (e.g. boosters or primary series vaccination, which age groups target) but LMIC often lack the resources undergo quantitative analyses vaccine allocation, resulting in ad-hoc policies. We developed Covid19Vaxplorer (https://covid19vaxplorer.fredhutch.org/), a...

• We modeled and evaluated two possible vaccination strategies for pandemic influenza. The protection gained after a single dose is key in determining the best strategy. A one-dose strategy optimal if one substantial. two-doses little dose. show how can be integrated into control plans. Avian influenza (H7N9), emerged China April 2013, sparking fears of new, highly pathogenic, pandemic. In addition, avian (H5N1) continues to circulate remains threat. Currently, H7N9 vaccines are being tested...

A global stockpile of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) was established in 2013 for use outbreak response and are licensed as two-dose regimens. Vaccine availability, however, remains limited. Previous studies have found that a single dose OCV may provide substantial protection against cholera.

Marginalized racial and ethnic groups in the United States were disproportionally affected by COVID-19 pandemic. To study these disparities, we construct an age-and-race-stratified mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission fitted to data from 2020 Oregon analyze counterfactual vaccination strategies early 2021. We consider two groups: non-Hispanic White persons belonging BIPOC (including Black persons, Asian American-Indian or Alaska-Native Hispanic Latino persons). allocate a limited...

Previous influenza pandemics (1918, 1957, and 1968) have all had multiple waves. The 2009 pandemic A (H1N1) (pandemic H1N1) started in April was followed, the United States (US) temperate Northern Hemisphere, by a second wave during fall of 2009. ratio susceptible immune individuals population at end determines potential magnitude subsequent wave. As vaccines are not completely protective, there combined immunity beginning 2010 (due to vaccination due previous natural infection), it...

Abstract Background Several COVID-19 vaccine candidates are in the final stage of testing. Interim trial results for two vaccines suggest at least 90% efficacy against symptomatic disease (VE DIS ). It remains unknown whether this is mediated predominately by lowering SARS-CoV-2 infection susceptibility ( VE SUSC ) or development symptoms after SYMP A with high but low has uncertain population impact. Methods We developed a mathematical model transmission, calibrated to demographic, physical...