Toby Ord

ORCID: 0000-0003-4644-016X
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About
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Research Areas
  • Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics
  • Philosophical Ethics and Theory
  • Computability, Logic, AI Algorithms
  • Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life
  • Free Will and Agency
  • Global Health Care Issues
  • Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life
  • Quantum Computing Algorithms and Architecture
  • Evolutionary Game Theory and Cooperation
  • Income, Poverty, and Inequality
  • Mathematical Dynamics and Fractals
  • Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology
  • Psychology of Moral and Emotional Judgment
  • Philosophy and History of Science
  • Philosophy and Theoretical Science
  • Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
  • Plant and animal studies
  • Healthcare Systems and Reforms
  • Benford’s Law and Fraud Detection
  • Political Philosophy and Ethics
  • Health and Conflict Studies
  • Ethics in medical practice
  • Theology and Philosophy of Evil
  • Healthcare Policy and Management
  • Risk Perception and Management

University of Oxford
2008-2023

School of Economics and Management of Public Administration in Bratislava
2023

Global Public Policy Institute
2023

New America
2023

Uppsala University
2020

The University of Melbourne
2002-2003

Abstract This paper argues in favor of a particular account decision‐making under normative uncertainty: that, when it is possible to do so, one should maximize expected choice‐worthiness . Though this position has been often suggested the literature and taken be ‘default’ view, so far received little way positive argument its favor. After dealing with some preliminaries giving basic motivation for taking uncertainty into our decision‐making, we consider provide new arguments against two...

10.1111/nous.12264 article EN Noûs 2018-07-14

The Repugnant Conclusion is an implication of some approaches to population ethics. It states, in Derek Parfit's original formulation, For any possible at least ten billion people, all with a very high quality life, there must be much larger imaginable whose existence, if other things are equal, would better, even though its members have lives that barely worth living. (Parfit 1984: 388)

10.1017/s095382082100011x article EN cc-by Utilitas 2021-04-13

It is often claimed that from the moment of conception embryos have same moral status as adult humans. This claim plays a central role in many arguments against abortion, vitro fertilization, and stem cell research. In what follows, I show this leads directly to an unexpected unwelcome conclusion: natural embryo loss one greatest problems our time we must do almost everything power prevent it. examine responses available those who hold full conclude they cannot avoid force argument without...

10.1080/15265160802248146 article EN The American Journal of Bioethics 2008-08-29

Some risks have extremely high stakes. For example, a worldwide pandemic or asteroid impact could potentially kill more than billion people. Comfortingly, scientific calcultions often put very low probabilities on the occurrence of such catastrophes. In this paper, we argue that there are important new methodological problems which arise when assessing global catastrophic and focus problem regarding probability estimation. When an expert provides calculation outcome, they really providing...

10.1080/13669870903126267 article EN Journal of Risk Research 2010-02-12

Given the deep disagreement surrounding population axiology, one should remain uncertain about which theory is best. However, this uncertainty need not leave neutral acts are better or worse. We show that, as number of lives at stake grows, Expected Moral Value approach to axiological systematically pushes toward choosing option preferred by Total View and critical-level views, even if one’s credence in those theories low.

10.26556/jesp.v12i2.223 article EN cc-by-nc-nd Journal of Ethics and Social Philosophy 2017-10-02

Abstract We evaluate the total probability of human extinction from naturally occurring processes. Such processes include risks that are well characterized such as asteroid impacts and supervolcanic eruptions, remain unknown. Using only information Homo sapiens has existed at least 200,000 years, we conclude humanity goes extinct natural causes in any given year is almost guaranteed to be less than one 14,000, likely 87,000. longer track record survival for our entire genus produces even...

10.1038/s41598-019-47540-7 article EN cc-by Scientific Reports 2019-07-30

We introduce new theoretical insights into two-population asymmetric games allowing for an elegant symmetric decomposition two single population games. Specifically, we show how bimatrix game (A,B) can be decomposed its counterparts by envisioning and investigating the payoff tables (A B) that constitute game, as independent, population, reveal several surprising formal relationships between counterparts, which facilitate a convenient analysis of original due to dimensionality reduction...

10.1038/s41598-018-19194-4 article EN cc-by Scientific Reports 2018-01-11

The Fermi paradox is the conflict between an expectation of a high {\em ex ante} probability intelligent life elsewhere in universe and apparently lifeless we fact observe. that should be teeming with linked to models like Drake equation, which suggest even if developing at given site small, sheer multitude possible sites nonetheless yield large number potentially observable civilizations. We show this arises from use Drake-like equations, implicitly assume certainty regarding highly...

10.48550/arxiv.1806.02404 preprint EN other-oa arXiv (Cornell University) 2018-01-01

Due to common misconceptions about the Church-Turing thesis, it has been widely assumed that Turing machine provides an upper bound on what is computable. This not so. The new field of hypercomputation studies models computation can compute more than and addresses their implications. In this report, I survey much work done hypercomputation, explaining how such non-classical fit into classical theory comparing relative powers. also examine physical requirements for machines be constructible...

10.48550/arxiv.math/0209332 preprint EN other-oa arXiv (Cornell University) 2002-01-01

10.1016/j.amc.2005.09.076 article EN Applied Mathematics and Computation 2005-11-10

The diagonal method is often used to show that Turing machines cannot solve their own halting problem. There have been several recent attempts this also exposes either contradiction or arbitrariness in other theoretical models of computation which claim be able the problem for machines. We such arguments are flawed—a only occurs if a type machine can compute its function. then demonstrate why situation does not occur methods hypercomputation under attack, and it unlikely any serious methods....

10.1093/phisci/axi108 article EN The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 2005-03-01

Abstract We introduce a summary wellbeing measure for economic evaluation of cross‐sectoral public policies with impacts on health and living standards. show how to calculate period‐specific lifetime using quality‐adjusted life years based widely available data health‐related quality consumption normative assumptions about three parameters—minimal consumption, standard the elasticity marginal value consumption. also illustrate these parameters can be tailored decision‐making context varied...

10.1002/hec.4177 article EN cc-by Health Economics 2020-10-22

A major problem for interpersonal aggregation is how to compare utility across individuals; a decision-making under normative uncertainty the formally analogous of choice-worthiness theories. We introduce and study class methods, which we call statistical normalization making comparisons intertheoretic choice-worthiness. argue against methods that have been proposed in literature. argue, instead, favor variance: claim this account most plausibly gives all individuals or theories ‘equal say’....

10.5840/jphil202011725 article EN The Journal of Philosophy 2020-01-01

Prioritarianism is the moral view that a fixed improvement in someone's well-being matters more worse off they are. Its supporters argue it best captures our intuitions about unequal distributions of well-being. I show prioritarianism sometimes recommends acts will make things while simultaneously lowering total and making for everyone ex ante. Intuitively, there little to recommend such take this be serious counterexample prioritarianism.

10.1017/s0953820815000059 article EN Utilitas 2015-03-06
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