A5024066584- Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics
- Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Philosophy and History of Science
- Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
- Risk Perception and Management
- Psychology of Moral and Emotional Judgment
- Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies
- Economic Theory and Institutions
- Computability, Logic, AI Algorithms
- Climate variability and models
- Multi-Criteria Decision Making
- Philosophy and Theoretical Science
- Health and Conflict Studies
- Philosophical Ethics and Theory
- Political Philosophy and Ethics
- Income, Poverty, and Inequality
- Free Will and Agency
- Early Childhood Education and Development
- Autism Spectrum Disorder Research
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Game Theory and Applications
- Science and Climate Studies
- Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Law, Economics, and Judicial Systems
Carnegie Mellon University
2023
New York University Press
2022-2023
Case Western Reserve University
2023
University of Exeter
2020-2023
University of Edinburgh
2021-2023
Cambridge University Press
2022-2023
University of California, San Diego
2023
Australian National University
2016-2023
Newcastle University
2023
John Wiley & Sons (United States)
2023
We focus on a class of multicriteria methods that are commonly used in environmental decision making--those employ the weighted linear average algorithm (and this includes popular analytic hierarchy process (AHP)). While we do not doubt potential benefits using formal type, draw attention to consequences them well. In particular, highlight property these should be overlooked when they applied and wider decision-making contexts: final or ranking options is dependent choice performance scoring...
Richard Rudner famously argues that the communication of scientific advice to policy makers involves ethical value judgments. His argument has, however, been rightly criticized. This article revives Rudner's conclusion, by strengthening both his lines argument: we generalize initial assumption regarding form in which scientists must communicate their results and complete ‘backup’ appealing difference between private public decisions. Our conclusion science advisors must, for deep-seated...
The Repugnant Conclusion is an implication of some approaches to population ethics. It states, in Derek Parfit's original formulation, For any possible at least ten billion people, all with a very high quality life, there must be much larger imaginable whose existence, if other things are equal, would better, even though its members have lives that barely worth living. (Parfit 1984: 388)
The precautionary principle recommends preventing possible harm to human health and environment. It has gained support in the international community as a higher-order legal that should guide public policy formulation of specific laws. But it is also target much criticism, with many arguing vacuous, inconsistent or based on an excessively conservative attitude towards risk. I argue value emphasises aspects good decision-making go beyond scope formal decision theory, are often neglected...
In this paper we explore the connections between ethics and decision theory. particular, consider question of whether theory carries with it a bias towards consequentialist ethical theories. We argue that there are plausible versions other theories can be accommodated by "standard" theory, but also variations these less easily accommodated. So while is not exclusively consequentialist, necessarily ethically neutral. Moreover, even if our decision-theoretic models get right answers vis-à-vis...
Abstract Many fine‐grained (if not bigger picture) decisions concerning climate change involve significant, even severe, uncertainty. Here, we focus on modelling the of single agents, whether individual persons or groups perceived as corporate entities. We offer a taxonomy sources and kinds uncertainty that arise in framing these decision problems, well strategies for making choice spite The aim is to facilitate more transparent structured treatment making.
Suicide prevention is a national priority for the UK government. Autistic people are at greater risk of experiencing self-harm and suicidal thoughts behaviours than general population. Safety plans widely used in suicide but have not yet been designed with autistic people. We developed first safety plan specifically targeting suicidality adults: Autism Adapted Plan (AASP). It consists prioritised list hierarchical steps that can be prior to or during crisis mitigate behaviour. This pilot...
We argue that concerns about double-counting—using the same evidence both to calibrate or tune climate models and also confirm verify are adequate—deserve more careful scrutiny in modelling circles. It is widely held double-counting bad separate data must be used for calibration confirmation. show this far from obviously true, scientists may confusing their targets. Our analysis turns on a Bayesian/relative-likelihood approach incremental According approach, entirely proper. go discuss...
Summary 1. Ecologists and conservation biologists consider many issues when designing a field study, such as the expected value of data, interests study species, welfare individual organisms cost project. These different or values often conflict; however, neither animal ethics nor environmental provides practical guidance on how to assess trade‐offs between them. 2. We developed decision framework for considering in ecological research, drawing ethics. used case population genetics three...
This article considers a puzzling conflict between two positions that are each compelling: ( ) it is irrational for an agent to pay avoid ‘free’ evidence, and b rational agents may have imprecise beliefs. An important aspect of responding this resolving the question how (imprecise) ought make sequences decisions—we explicit what key alternatives defend our own approach. We endorse resolution aforementioned puzzle—we privilege decision theories merely permit avoiding free evidence over...
Abstract There has been much recent interest in imprecise probabilities , models of belief that allow unsharp or fuzzy credence. have also some influential criticisms this position. Here we argue, chiefly against Elga (2010), subjective need not be sharp. The key question is whether the probabilist can make reasonable sequences decisions. We argue she can. outline Elga's argument and clarify assumptions he makes principles rationality implicitly committed to. these are too strong rational...
Anxiety is commonly experienced by autistic people and impacts on quality of life social participation. New anxiety interventions are required to effectively meet the needs people. Personalised Treatment-Autism (PAT-A©) a bespoke, modular approach treating in up 12 sessions. This study explored feasibility acceptability delivering PAT-A© UK National Health Service (NHS). A single-blind randomised controlled trial design. Thirty-four adults were recruited via clinical services receive either...
Group decisions raise a number of substantial philosophical and methodological issues. We focus on the goal group decision exercise itself. ask: What should be counted as good decision‐making result? The right might not accessible to, or please, any members. Conversely, popular can fail to correct decision. In this paper we discuss what it means for “right” components are required in process produce happy decision‐makers. Importantly, how decision‐makers, rather, conditions under which...
This article argues that common intuitions regarding (a) the specialness of 'use-novel' data for confirmation and (b) this implies 'no-double-counting rule', which says used in 'constructing' (calibrating) a model cannot also play role confirming model's predictions, are too crude. The question pertinent all sciences, but we appeal to climate science case study illustrate what is at stake. Our strategy analyse intuitive claims light prominent accounts predictions. We show on Bayesian account...
Abstract The Bayesian maxim for rational learning could be described as conservative change from one probabilistic belief or credence function to another in response new information. Roughly: ‘Hold fixed any credences that are not directly affected by the experience.’ This is precisely articulated case when we learn some proposition had previously entertained indeed true (the rule of conditionalization). But can this conservative-change extended revising one’s entertaining propositions...
Management of labor epidurals in obese women is difficult and extension to surgical anesthesia not always successful. Our previous retrospective pilot study found epidural was more likely fail women. This used a prospective cohort compare the failure rate non-obese identify risk factors for failure.One hundred participants (Group O, body mass index ≥ 40 kg/m2 ) were prospectively identified allocated two sequential controls C, ≤ 30 ). All subjects utilized analgesia subsequently required...
Abstract In this paper, we develop a novel response to counterfactual scepticism, the thesis that most ordinary claims are false. process aim shed light on relationship between debates in philosophy of science and concerning semantics pragmatics counterfactuals. We argue is concerned with many domains inquiry, each its own characteristic entities regularities; moreover, statements scientific law often include an implicit ceteris paribus clause restricts scope associated regularity...
In engineering, as in other scientific fields, researchers seek to confirm their models with real-world data. It is common practice assess terms of the distance between model outputs and corresponding experimental observations. An important question that arises whether should then be ‘tuned’, sense estimating values free parameters get a better fit data, furthermore tuned can confirmed same data used tune it. This dual use often disparagingly referred ‘double-counting’. Here, we analyse...