A5034447303- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Marine and fisheries research
- Marine Biology and Ecology Research
- Marine Bivalve and Aquaculture Studies
- Isotope Analysis in Ecology
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Marine and environmental studies
- Soil and Water Nutrient Dynamics
- Coastal and Marine Management
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
- Geochemistry and Geologic Mapping
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Integrated Water Resources Management
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
- Sustainability and Ecological Systems Analysis
- Aquatic and Environmental Studies
- Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies
- Arctic and Russian Policy Studies
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Water Quality Monitoring and Analysis
- Environmental Monitoring and Data Management
- Peatlands and Wetlands Ecology
Stockholm University
2014-2024
Östersjöcentrum
2014-2024
Latvian Institute of Aquatic Ecology
2001-2014
Stockholm Resilience Centre
2011-2012
Institute of Food Safety, Animal Health and Environment “BIOR”
2012
University of Helsinki
2009
Lund University
2009
Åbo Akademi University
2009
State Education Development Agency
2008
University of Latvia
2001-2003
Abstract Marine ecosystems such as the Baltic Sea are currently under strong atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure. Besides natural human‐induced changes in climate, major drivers overfishing eutrophication significantly affecting ecosystem structure function. Recently, studies demonstrated existence of alternative stable states various terrestrial aquatic ecosystems. These so‐called regime shifts have been explained mainly a result multiple causes, e.g. climatic shifts, overexploitation or...
Abstract. Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge effects global warming past future changes climate Sea region is summarised assessed. The study an update Second Climate Change (BACC II) published 2015 focuses atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, terrestrial marine biosphere. summaries gained palaeo-, historical, regional research, we find that main conclusions from earlier...
Abstract Möllmann, C., Müller-Karulis, B., Kornilovs, G., and St John, M. A. 2008. Effects of climate overfishing on zooplankton dynamics ecosystem structure: regime shifts, trophic cascade, feeback loops in a simple ecosystem. – ICES Journal Marine Science, 65: 302–310. The Central Baltic Sea is the largest brackish waterbody world ocean, containing highly productive but low-diversity Climate-induced changes hydrography recently caused an shift with at all levels. most pronounced occurred...
[1] Using an ensemble of coupled physical-biogeochemical models driven with regionalized data from global climate simulations we are able to quantify the influence changing upon oxygen conditions in one numerous coastal seas (the Baltic Sea) that suffers worldwide eutrophication and expanding hypoxic zones. Applying various nutrient load scenarios show under impact warming anoxic areas will very likely increase or at best only slightly decrease (in case optimistic reductions) compared...
Changes in climate, combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations many the world's ecosystems during past decades. The Baltic Sea Northern Europe is one systems most affected. In addition to being exposed persistent eutrophication, fishing, and fastest rates warming last two decades 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric changes precipitation projected for this region 21st century. Here, we used a new multimodel...
Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of Baltic Sea were performed period 1850–2098, projected changes in future climate compared with past environment. For 1850–2006, atmospheric, hydrological nutrient forcings reconstructed, based on historical measurements. 1961–2098, scenario driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data forced various greenhouse gas emission air- riverborne load scenarios (ranging from a pessimistic...
We modelled and assessed the past, present predicted future eutrophication status of Baltic Sea. The assessment covers a 350-year period from 1850 to 2200 is based on: (1) concentrations dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), phosphorous (DIP), chlorophyll-a, Secchi depth, oxygen under four different nutrient input scenarios (2) application multi-metric indicator-based tool for status: HEAT 3.0. This was previously applied using historical observations determine 1901 2012. Here we apply 3.0...
Abstract There is growing evidence that the release of phosphorus (P) from “legacy” stores can frustrate efforts to reduce P loading surface water sources such as agriculture and human sewage. Less known, however, about magnitude residence times these legacy pools. Here we constructed a budget net anthropogenic inputs Baltic Sea drainage basin developed three‐parameter, two‐box model describe movement though temporary (mobile) long‐term (stable) storage Phosphorus entered sea direct coastal...
Abstract Theory behind ecosystem-based management (EBM) and fisheries (EBFM) is now well developed. However, the implementation of EBFM exemplified by in Europe still largely based on single-species assessments ignores wider ecosystem context impact. The reason for lack or slow EBM specifically a coherent strategy. Such strategy offered recently developed integrated (IEAs), formal synthesis tool to quantitatively analyse information relevant natural socio-economic factors, relation specified...
To assess the impact of implementation Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) on future environmental status Sea, already available uncoordinated multi-model ensemble simulations for region 21st century were analyzed. The scenario driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data using several regional climate system models and forced various greenhouse gas emission air- river-borne nutrient load scenarios following either reference conditions or BSAP. estimate uncertainties in...
Following earlier regional assessment studies, such as the Assessment of Climate Change for Baltic Sea Basin and North Region Assessment, knowledge from available literature about future scenario simulations biogeochemical cycles in their uncertainties is assessed. Uncertainties these projections are caused by climate model (including global models experimental setup), unknown nutrient load greenhouse gas emissions (or concentrations) natural variability. The determination reduction...
Abstract. Location, specific topography, and hydrographic setting together with climate change strong anthropogenic pressure are the main factors shaping biogeochemical functioning thus also ecological status of Baltic Sea. The recent decades have brought significant changes in First, rising nutrient loads from land second half 20th century led to eutrophication spreading hypoxic anoxic areas, for which permanent stratification water column limited ventilation deep-water layers made...
Natural resource management requires approaches to understand and handle sources of uncertainty in future responses complex systems human activities. Here we present one such approach, the "biological ensemble modeling approach," using Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias) as an example. The core approach is expose models with different ecological assumptions climate forcing, multiple realizations each scenario. We simulated long-term response fishing change seven ranging from...
In this study we examine pools of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) in the Baltic Sea, both simulated reconstructed from observations. We further quantify key fluxes C, N, P cycling. Our calculations include pelagic reservoirs as well storage active sediment layer, which allows a complete coverage overall cycling on system-scale. A striking property C versus N is that while external supplies total (TN TP) are largely balanced by internal removal processes, (TC) supply mainly...
A novel pan-European marine model ensemble was established, covering nearly all seas under the regulation of Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), with aim providing a consistent assessment potential impacts riverine nutrient reduction scenarios on eutrophication indicators. For each sea region, up to five coupled biogeochemical models from institutes over Europe were brought together for first time. All systems followed harmonised scenario approach and ran two simulations, which...
Abstract The occurrence of regime shifts in marine ecosystems has important implications for environmental legislation that requires setting reference levels and targets quantitative restoration outcomes. Baltic Sea ecosystem undergone large changes the 20 th century related to anthropogenic pressures climate variability, which have caused reorganization. Here, we compiled historical information identified relationships our dataset using multivariate statistics modeling across 31 biotic...
Eutrophication is one of the most important anthropogenic pressures impacting coastal seas. In Europe, several legislations and management measures have been implemented to halt nutrient overloading in marine ecosystems. This study evaluates impact freshwater control on higher trophic levels (HTL) European ecosystems following descriptors criteria as defined by Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). We used a novel pan-European modeling ensemble fourteen HTL models, covering almost all...
Nutrient loading and climate change affect coastal ecosystems worldwide. Unravelling the combined effects of these pressures on benthic macrofauna is essential for understanding future functioning ecosystems, as it an important component linking pelagic realms. In this study, we extended existing model coupled with a physical-biogeochemical Baltic Sea to study changing nutrient loads biomass metabolism historically in scenarios future. Based statistical comparison large validation dataset...