A5016104509- Urban Transport and Accessibility
- Human Mobility and Location-Based Analysis
- Crime Patterns and Interventions
- Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance
- Urban Design and Spatial Analysis
- Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence
- Transportation Planning and Optimization
- Traffic and Road Safety
- Urban and Rural Development Challenges
- Complex Network Analysis Techniques
- Misinformation and Its Impacts
- Migration and Labor Dynamics
- Regional Economics and Spatial Analysis
- Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- Urban, Neighborhood, and Segregation Studies
- Migration, Health and Trauma
- Cybercrime and Law Enforcement Studies
- Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques
- Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Local Economic Development and Planning
- Crime, Deviance, and Social Control
- Migration, Refugees, and Integration
Complexity Science Hub Vienna
2022-2024
University College London
2016-2024
Society of Health and Physical Educators
2023
Center for Health and Gender Equity
2023
Universidad EAFIT
2020-2022
University of Oxford
2019-2020
Google (United States)
2017
Misinformation is usually adjusted to fit distinct narratives and propagates rapidly through social networks. False beliefs, once adopted, are rarely corrected. Amidst the COVID-19 crisis, pandemic-deniers people who oppose wearing face masks or quarantine have already been a substantial aspect of development pandemic. With vaccine for COVID-19, different anti-vaccine being created probably adopted by large population groups with critical consequences. Assuming full adherence administration,...
Different patterns in the incidence of road accidents are revealed when considering areas with increased levels urbanization. To understand these patterns, accident data from England and Wales is explored. In particular, used to (i) generate time series for comparison urban as opposed rural areas, (ii) analyse relationship between number population size a set (iii) model likelihood suffering an area its dependence size. It observed that minor serious more frequent whereas fatal likely areas....
A large proportion of Africa's infrastructure is yet to be built. Where and how these new buildings are constructed matters since today's decisions will last for decades. The resulting morphology cities has lasting implications a city's energy needs. Estimating projecting needs always been challenging in Africa due the lack data. Yet, given sweeping urbanization expected over next three decades, this obstacle must overcome guide toward trajectory sustainability resilience. Based on location...
The use of cars in cities has many negative impacts, including pollution, noise and the space. Yet, detecting factors that reduce is a serious challenge, particularly across different regions. Here, we model various modes transport city by aggregating Active mobility (A), Public Transport (B) Cars (C), expressing modal share its ABC triplet. Data for nearly 800 61 countries used to car relationship with size income. Our findings suggest longer distances congestion experienced large cities,...
Models of human migration provide powerful tools to forecast the flow migrants, measure impact a policy, determine cost physical and political frictions more. Here, we analyse individuals from cities in US, finding that city follows scaling laws, so size is significant factor determining whether, or not, an individual decides migrate both origin destination play key roles selection destination. We observe small tend more frequently, tending move similar-sized cities, whereas large do not...
Abstract Social media posts incorporate real-time information that has, elsewhere, been exploited to predict social trends. This paper considers whether such can be useful in relation crime and fear of crime. A large number tweets were collected from the 18 largest Spanish-speaking countries Latin America, over a period 70 days. These are then classified as being crime-related or not additional is extracted, including type where possible, any geo-location at city level. From analysis data,...
Mexican cartels lose many members as a result of conflict with other and incarcerations. Yet, despite their losses, manage to increase violence for years. We address this puzzle by leveraging data on homicides, missing persons, incarcerations in Mexico the past decade along information cartel interactions. model recruitment, state incapacitation, conflict, saturation sources size variation. Results show that 2022, counted 160,000 185,000 units, becoming one country’s top employers....
As the world becomes increasingly urbanised, there is recognition that public and planetary health relies upon a ubiquitous transition to sustainable cities. Disentanglement of complex pathways urban design, environmental exposures, health, magnitude these associations, remains challenge. A state-of-the-art account large-scale studies required shape future research priorities equity- evidence-informed policies.
Open Science is encouraged by the European Union and many other political scientific institutions. However, practice proving slow to change. We propose, as early career researchers, that it our task change research into open commit principles.
Generally speaking, crime is, fortunately, a rare event. As far as modelling is concerned, this sparsity of data means that traditional measures to quantify concentration are not appropriate when applied suffered by population. Our objective develop new technique measure the which takes into account its low frequency occurrence and high degree in such way comparable over time different populations. This article derives an estimate distribution population based on mixture model then evaluates...
Abstract There is often a mismatch between levels of crime and the fear becoming victim crime. It not uncommon to find individuals who suffer little or no but yet are still fearful some future Alternatively, place region might see an increase in over time while remains unchanged. Building on model that previously considered as opinion shared by simulated individuals, here impact different distributions have experienced population analysed. Simulating dynamics along with changes distribution...
Abstract Boko Haram has caused nearly 40,000 casualties in Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon and Chad, becoming one of the deadliest Jihadist organisations recent history. At its current rate, takes part more than two events each day, taking lives 11 people daily. Yet, little is known concerning Haram’s internal structure, organisation, mobility. Here, we propose a novel technique to uncover structure based on sequence which terrorist group part. Data from Armed Conflict Location & Event Project...
Abstract Migration’s impact spans various social dimensions, including demography, sustainability, politics, economy, and gender disparities. Yet, the decision-making process behind migrants choosing their destination remains elusive. Existing models primarily rely on population size travel distance to explain spatial patterns of migration flows, overlooking significant heterogeneities. Paradoxically, often long distances smaller destinations if diaspora is present in those locations. To...
Urban segregation poses a critical challenge in cities, exacerbating inequalities, social tensions, fears, and polarization. It emerges from complex interplay of socioeconomic disparities residential preferences, disproportionately impacting migrant communities. In this paper, using comprehensive administrative data Vienna, where nearly 40% the population consists international migrants, we analyse co-residence preferences between migrants locals at neighbourhood level. Our findings reveal...
How secure people feel in a particular region is obviously linked to the actual crime suffered that but exact relationship between and its fear quite subtle. Two regions may have same rate their local perception of security differ. Equally, two places even though one significantly lower rate. Furthermore, negative might persist for many years, when rates drop. Here, we develop model dynamics based on distribution by population using concepts similar those used opinion dynamics. Simulations...
Abstract We introduce here an index, which we call the Rare Event Concentration Coefficient ( RECC ), that is a measure of dispersion/concentration events have low frequency but tend to high level concentration, such as number crimes suffered by person. The metric based on statistical mixture model, with value closer zero meaning are homogeneously distributed, and one higher degree concentration. This may be used compare concentration over different time periods regions. Other traditional...
Amid growing enthusiasm for a "new urban science" and "smart city" approaches to management, "big data" is expected create radical new opportunities research practice. Meanwhile, anthropologists, sociologists, human geographers, among others, generate highly contextualized nuanced data, sometimes referred as 'thick data,' that can potentially complement, refine calibrate big data analytics while generating interpretations of the city through diverse forms reasoning. While researchers in...
A person's perception of the level security at a specific location depends on many factors, including past experiences in that location, actual crime suffered by population and more. Thus, when individual is insecure becomes general rule an attribute region rather than fears some its individuals, hence relevance aggregating perceptions into single regional security. Residents two different regions, which have same levels crime, similar nature, may The associated with particular place...
Due to their centrality, some cities with a strategic position in the urban network become hubs for trade and benefit from spillover effects of being close more people. Yet, measuring city centrality detecting hampering frictions such as international borders is an unsolved complex problem. Here, we construct Africa's obtained OpenStreetMap road data. City measured using two indices: by degree cities, so number roads that connect it, intermediacy, or intracity journeys pass through it. The...
Background Road accidents are one of the main causes death around world and yet, from a time-space perspective, they rare event. To help us prevent accidents, metric to determine level concentration road in city could aid whether most constrained small number places (hence, environment plays leading role) or dispersed over as whole driver has biggest influence). Methods Here, we apply new metric, Rare Event Concentration Coefficient (RECC), measure based on mixture model applied counts...
Abstract Labour mobility within a large city or metropolitan area is necessary condition for the optimal exploitation of agglomeration economies. We propose method to establish which municipalities should be considered part based on labour market integration. In order aggregate geographically proximate urban municipalities, we develop network-based model that makes industry productivity (manifesting in formal employment creation) dependent firms’ ability find, limits, diversity skills they...
Human activity is organised around daily and weekly cycles, which should, in turn, dominate all types of social interactions, such as transactions, communications, gatherings so on. Yet, despite their strategic importance for policing security, cyclical patterns crime road incidents have been unexplored at the city neighbourhood level. Here we construct a novel method to capture trace, or "heartbeat" events use geotagged data capturing time location more than 200,000 violent crimes nearly...
Promoting walking or cycling and reducing cars’ use is one of the city planners’ main targets, contributing to a sustainable transport method. Yet, number vehicles worldwide increasing as fast population, motorized mobility has become primary method in most cities. Here, we consider modal share an emergent behaviour personal decisions. All individuals minimize their commuting time reach equilibrium under which no person willing change transportation mode. In terms minimum travel time,...
Internal migration is one of the main driving forces a country's demography. Yet, path-dependent, and critical characteristics internal migration, including propensity to keep moving return previous locations, are frequently ignored. Here, model city-to-city constructed, where movement individuals modelled using frequency distinct sequences or signatures. A key novel feature its ability account for partial information on an individuals' lifetime migrations. We fit this longitudinal data 3.3...