A5090938987- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
- Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology
- COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Evolutionary Game Theory and Cooperation
- Zoonotic diseases and public health
- vaccines and immunoinformatics approaches
- Viral Infections and Vectors
- Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Vector-borne infectious diseases
- COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- Immune responses and vaccinations
- Virology and Viral Diseases
- Animal Virus Infections Studies
- Long-Term Effects of COVID-19
- COVID-19 and Mental Health
- Yersinia bacterium, plague, ectoparasites research
- RNA and protein synthesis mechanisms
- Electrostatics and Colloid Interactions
- Reproductive tract infections research
University of California, Berkeley
2022-2025
Miller College
2022-2025
Princeton University
2019-2023
University of Victoria
2015-2020
Institute for Integrative and Experimental Genomics
2019
The future trajectory of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic hinges on dynamics adaptive immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2); however, salient features immune response elicited by natural infection or vaccination are still uncertain. We use simple epidemiological models to explore estimates for magnitude and timing COVID-19 cases, given different assumptions regarding protective efficacy duration SARS-CoV-2, as well its interaction with vaccines...
Given vaccine dose shortages and logistical challenges, various deployment strategies are being proposed to increase population immunity levels severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Two critical issues arise: How timing of delivery the second will affect infection dynamics how it prospects for evolution viral immune escape via a buildup partially individuals. Both hinge on robustness response elicited by single as compared with natural two-dose immunity. Building an...
Stockpiling and control A triumph that has emerged from the catastrophe of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic been rapid development several potent vaccines. However, 18 months into more than 6 after vaccine approval, wealthy countries remain major beneficiaries. Wagner et al . model consequences stockpiling in affluent on disease rates lower- middle-income for eruption new variants could jeopardize early success For can readily access vaccines, it would be better to...
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has highlighted the importance of behavioral drivers in epidemic dynamics. With relaxation mandated nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) formerly place to decrease transmission, such as mask-wearing or social distancing, adherence an NPI is now result individual decision-making. To study these coupled dynamics, we embed a game-theoretic model for within epidemiological model. When disease endemic, find that our multiple (but none concurrently stable) equilibria: one...
Individual and societal reactions to an ongoing pandemic can lead social dilemmas: In some cases, each individual is tempted not follow intervention, but for the whole society, it would be best if they did. Now that in most countries, extent of regulations reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission very small, interventions are driven by decision-making. Assuming individuals act their own interest, we propose a framework which this situation quantified, depending on protection intervention provides user...
Significance Numerous factors affect early transmission by a newly infected host. A less symptomatic initial infection can persist longer due to reduced immune response, but at the cost of transmission. Assuming simple trade-offs for progression and rates in infectious stage, we couple epidemiological evolutionary dynamics. We find that fully asymptomatic, symptomatic, or first stages are possible outcomes, with surprising bistability between zero maximal asymptomatic behavior. This implies...
Understanding viral evolution depends on a synthesis of evolutionary biology and immuno-epidemiology.
Identifying drivers of viral diversity is key to understanding the evolutionary as well epidemiological dynamics COVID-19 pandemic. Using rich genomic data sets, we show that periods steadily rising have been punctuated by sudden, enormous increases followed similarly abrupt collapses diversity. We introduce a mechanistic model saltational evolution with epistasis and demonstrate these features parsimoniously account for observed temporal inter-genomic Our results provide support recent...
Abstract Theoretical models have successfully predicted the evolution of poultry pathogen virulence in industrialized farm contexts broiler chicken populations. Whether there are ecological factors specific to more traditional rural farming that affect is an open question. Within non-industrialized networks, live bird markets known be hotspots transmission, but whether they could shift selection pressures on has not been addressed. Here, we revisit predictions for viral pathogens, such as...
Broader coverage can have economic, climate-related, animal welfare, and human health benefits
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has generated a considerable number of infections and associated morbidity mortality across the world. Recovery from these infections, combined with onset large-scale vaccination, have led to rapidly-changing population-level immunological landscapes. In turn, complexities highlighted important unknowns related breadth strength immunity following recovery or vaccination. Using simple mathematical models, we investigate medium-term impacts waning against severe disease...
Risk-driven behaviour provides a feedback mechanism through which individuals both shape and are collectively affected by an epidemic. We introduce general flexible compartmental model to study the effect of heterogeneity in population with regard risk tolerance. The interplay between epidemiology leads rich set possible epidemic dynamics. Depending on behavioural composition population, we find that increasing tolerance can either increase or decrease size. multiple waves infection arise...
As the threat of Covid-19 continues and in face vaccine dose shortages logistical challenges, various deployment strategies are being proposed to increase population immunity levels. How timing delivery second affects infection burden but also prospects for evolution viral immune escape critical questions. Both hinge on strength duration (i.e. robustness) response elicited by a single dose, compared natural two-dose immunity. Building an existing immuno-epidemiological model, we find that...
Vaccines provide powerful tools to mitigate the enormous public health and economic costs that ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic continues exert globally, yet vaccine distribution remains unequal between countries. To examine potential epidemiological evolutionary impacts of ‘vaccine nationalism’, we extend previous models include simple scenarios stockpiling. In general, find stockpiling vaccines by countries with high availability leads large increases in infections low availability, magnitude...
COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including mask wearing, have proved highly effective at reducing the transmission of endemic infections. A key public health question is whether NPIs could continue to be implemented long term reduce ongoing burden from pathogens. Here, we use epidemiological models explore impact long-term on dynamics We find that introduction leads a strong initial reduction in incidence, but this effect transient: As susceptibility increases, epidemics...
As the SARS-CoV-2 trajectory continues, longer-term immuno-epidemiology of COVID-19, dynamics Long COVID, and impact escape variants are important outstanding questions. We examine these remaining uncertainties with a simple modelling framework that accounts for multiple (antigenic) exposures via infection or vaccination. If immunity (to COVID) accumulates rapidly valency exposure, we find levels burden COVID markedly reduced in medium term. More pessimistic assumptions on host adaptive...
The multiple immunity responses exhibited in the population and co-circulating variants documented during pandemics show a high potential to generate diverse long-term epidemiological scenarios. Transmission variability, immune uncertainties human behaviour are crucial features for predictability implementation of effective mitigation strategies. Nonetheless, effects individual health incentives on disease dynamics not well understood. We use behavioural-immuno-epidemiological model study...
The phylodynamic curve (Grenfell et al . 2004 Science 303 , 327–332 (doi: 10.1126/science.1090727 )) conceptualizes how immunity shapes the rate of viral adaptation in a non-monotonic fashion, through its opposing effects on abundance and strength selection. However, concrete quantitative model realizations this influential concept are rare. Here, we present an analytic, stochastic framework which population-scale emerges dynamically, allowing us to address questions regarding risk timing...
Meiotic drivers are selfish genetic elements that bias their own transmission during meiosis or gamete formation. Due to the fundamental differences between male and female in animals plants, meiotic operate through distinct mechanisms two sexes: In females, they exploit asymmetry of ensure inclusion egg, whereas males, eliminate competing gametes after symmetric meiosis. drive is commonly reported where it strongly influences evolution spermatogenesis, while few known cases females have...