A5000465689- Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Global Health Care Issues
- Health disparities and outcomes
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- COVID-19 and healthcare impacts
- Statistical Methods and Inference
- Healthcare Systems and Public Health
- Health and Conflict Studies
- Healthcare Systems and Practices
- Employment and Welfare Studies
- COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Bayesian Methods and Mixture Models
- Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life
- Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Birth, Development, and Health
- Healthcare Systems and Challenges
- Work-Family Balance Challenges
- Aging, Elder Care, and Social Issues
- Genetics, Aging, and Longevity in Model Organisms
- Global Maternal and Child Health
- Economic and Environmental Valuation
- Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics
- Healthcare Systems and Reforms
Institut national d'études démographiques
2016-2025
Campus Condorcet
2019-2024
Université de Montréal
2013
University of California, Berkeley
2013
Max Planck Society
2008-2012
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
2008
Urban Institute
2006
The <b>MortalitySmooth</b> package provides a framework for smoothing count data in both one- and two-dimensional settings. Although general its purposes, the is specifically tailored to demographers, actuaries, epidemiologists, geneticists who may be interested using practical tool mortality over ages and/or years. total number of deaths specified age- year-interval assumed Poisson-distributed, P-splines generalized linear array models are employed as suitable regression methodology....
Abstract Objective To measure the burden of COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 at subnational level by estimating excess mortality, defined as increase all-cause mortality relative to an expected baseline level. Methods Statistical and demographic analyses regional data provided vital statistics systems 21 European countries for 561 regions Central Western Europe. Life expectancy losses ages 0 60 males females were estimated. Results We found evidence a loss life 391 regions, whilst only three...
Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented worldwide to curb the spread of COVID-19. However, effectiveness such governmental measures in reducing mortality burden remains a key question scientific interest and public debate. In this study, we leverage digital mobility data assess effects reduced human on excess mortality, focusing regional England Wales between February August 2020. We estimate robust association reductions lower after adjusting for time trends differences...
Abstract Since its emergence in December 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted a significant increase deaths worldwide. This article presents detailed analysis of mortality burden across 569 regions 25 European countries. We produce age and sex-specific excess present our results using Age-Standardised Years Life Lost 2020 2021, as well cumulative impact over two years. Employing forecasting approach based on CP-splines that considers regional diversity provides confidence intervals, we...
Abstract We propose a method to decompose the young adult mortality hump by cause of death. This is based on flexible shape decomposition rates that separates cause-of-death contributions from senescent mortality. apply U.S. males and females 1959 2015. Results show divergence between time trends observed deaths, both for all-cause cause-specific The study reveals age, period, cohort effects, suggesting it formed complex combination different forces biological socioeconomic nature. Male...
The debate about limits to the human life span is often based on outcomes from mortality at oldest ages among longevity pioneers. To this day, scholars disagree existence of a late-life plateau in mortality. Amid various statistical analys
The COVID-19 pandemic’s uneven impact on subnational regions highlights the importance of understanding its local-level mortality impact. Vital statistics are available for an increasing number countries 2020, 2021, and 2022, facilitating computation excess a more comprehensive assessment burden. However, this calculation faces two important methodological challenges: it requires appropriate projection models; small populations imply considerable, though commonly neglected, uncertainty in...
Background: Mortality can be forecast by means of parametric models, principal component methods, and smoothing approaches. These methods either impose rigid modeling structures or produce implausible outcomes.
Age-at-death distributions provide an informative description of the mortality pattern a population but have generally been neglected for modelling and forecasting mortality. In this paper, we use distribution deaths to model forecast adult Specifically, introduce relational that relates fixed 'standard' series observed by transformation age axis. The proposed Segmented Transformation Distributions (STAD) is parsimonious efficient: using only three parameters, it captures disentangles...
L’urgence que représente la compréhension de pandémie Covid-19 a entraîné des différences considérables entre les procédures collecte données pays concernés, qui s’efforcent tous produire informations en temps réel mais restent statistiques mortalité imparfaites. Pour remédier à ce problème, l’analyse porte sur décomptes décès par provenant base « La démographie » ( https://dc-covid.site.ined.fr/fr/ ) ainsi leurs limites. Cet article souligne aspects importants touchant aux limitent...
Italy was hit harshly by the Covid-19 pandemic, registering more than 35,000 deaths between February and July 2020. During this first wave of epidemic, virus spread unequally across country, with northern regions witnessing cases deaths. We investigate demographic socio-economic factors contributing to diverse regional impact during wave. Using generalized additive mixed models, we find that mortality at level is negatively associated degree intergenerational co-residence, number intensive...
The COVID-19 pandemic is characterized by successive waves that each developed differently over time and through space. We aim to provide an in-depth analysis of the evolution mortality during 2020 2021 in a selection countries.We focus on five European countries United States. Using standardized age-specific rates, we address variations within between countries, demographic characteristics seasonality patterns.Our results highlight periods acceleration deceleration pace mortality, with...
Abstract Commonly used measures of socioeconomic inequalities in mortality, such as the slope and relative index inequality, are based on summary group-specific age-at-death distributions (e.g. standardized mortality rate or life expectancy). While this approach is informative, it ignores valuable information contained distributions. A recent applied a measure distributional dissimilarity (the non-overlap index) to lifespan stratification. In paper, we rigorously evaluate further implement...
Abstract In light of the unprecedented global impact COVID‐19, comparing its demographic and spatial dimensions with past longevity crises is crucial for identifying core drivers providing guidance tailored health policies. This study offers first analysis this type, placing recent pandemic in a historical geographical context spanning 120 years 90 French regions that 1911 2003 heatwaves Spanish Hong Kong flu. Using robust statistical model, we computed standard excess mortality measure...
In many applications data can be interpreted as indirect observations of a latent distribution. A typical example is the phenomenon known digit preference, i.e. tendency to round outcomes pleasing digits. The composite link model (CLM) useful framework uncover such distributions. Moreover, when applied showing preferences, this approach allows estimation proportions counts that were transferred neighbouring As estimating equations generally are singular or severely ill-conditioned, we impose...
Representing the conditional mean in Poisson regression directly as a sum of smooth components can provide realistic model data generating process. Here, we present an approach that allows such additive decomposition expected values counts. The be formulated penalized composite link and can, therefore, estimated by modified iteratively weighted least-squares algorithm. Further shape constraints on enforced additional penalties, is extended to two dimensions. We applications motivate...
Abstract National authorities publish COVID-19 death counts, which are extensively re-circulated and compared; but data generally poorly sourced documented. Academics stakeholders need tools to assess quality track data-related discrepancies for comparability over time or across countries. “The Demography of Deaths” database aims at bridging this gap. It provides counts along with associated documentation, includes the exact sources points out issues coverage data. The — launched in April...
Abstract Drawing cohort profiles and forecasts from grids of age–period data is common practice in demography. In this research note, we (1) show how demographic measures artificially fluctuate when calculated the diagonals rates because timing cohort-size bias, (2) estimate magnitude these biases, (3) illustrate prediction intervals for indicators mortality may become implausible drawn Lee–Carter methods grids. These biases are surprisingly large, even created single-age, single-year period...
This paper examines adult and old-age mortality differentials in Canada between 1930 2007 at the provincial level, using theCanadian Human Mortality Database flexible smoothing P-spline method two-dimensions well-suited to study of smallpopulations. Our analysis reveals that disparities general, among elderly population particular,are substantial Canada. Moreover, based on modal age death standard deviation ages above mode,provincial older have barely reduced over time, despite great...