As people live longer, ages at death are becoming more similar. This dual advance over the last two centuries, a central aim of public health policies, is major achievement modern civilization. Some recent exceptions to joint rise life expectancy and span equality, however, make it difficult determine underlying causes this relationship. Here, we develop unifying framework study equality time, relying on concepts about pace shape aging. We dynamic relationship between with reliable data from...

Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented worldwide to curb the spread of COVID-19. However, effectiveness such governmental measures in reducing mortality burden remains a key question scientific interest and public debate. In this study, we leverage digital mobility data assess effects reduced human on excess mortality, focusing regional England Wales between February August 2020. We estimate robust association reductions lower after adjusting for time trends differences...

The COVID-19 outbreak has called for renewed attention to the need sound statistical analyses monitor mortality patterns and trends over time. Excess been suggested as most appropriate indicator measure overall burden of pandemic in terms mortality. As such, excess received considerable interest since began. Previous approaches estimate are somewhat limited, they do not include sufficiently long-term trends, correlations among different demographic geographic groups, or autocorrelations time...

Age-at-death distributions provide an informative description of the mortality pattern a population but have generally been neglected for modelling and forecasting mortality. In this paper, we use distribution deaths to model forecast adult Specifically, introduce relational that relates fixed 'standard' series observed by transformation age axis. The proposed Segmented Transformation Distributions (STAD) is parsimonious efficient: using only three parameters, it captures disentangles...

Italy was hit harshly by the Covid-19 pandemic, registering more than 35,000 deaths between February and July 2020. During this first wave of epidemic, virus spread unequally across country, with northern regions witnessing cases deaths. We investigate demographic socio-economic factors contributing to diverse regional impact during wave. Using generalized additive mixed models, we find that mortality at level is negatively associated degree intergenerational co-residence, number intensive...

Excess mortality, i.e. the difference between expected and observed is used to quantify death toll of mortality shocks, such as infectious disease-related epidemics pandemics. However, predictions are sensitive model assumptions. Among three specifications a Serfling-Poisson regression for seasonal we analyse which one yields most accurate predictions. We compare models with: 1) parametric effect trend seasonality (SP), 2) non-parametric (SP-STSS), also known modulation model, 3) (SP-STFS)....

Abstract Commonly used measures of socioeconomic inequalities in mortality, such as the slope and relative index inequality, are based on summary group-specific age-at-death distributions (e.g. standardized mortality rate or life expectancy). While this approach is informative, it ignores valuable information contained distributions. A recent applied a measure distributional dissimilarity (the non-overlap index) to lifespan stratification. In paper, we rigorously evaluate further implement...

The Gaza War, triggered by the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, has resulted in significant loss of life and intensified an ongoing humanitarian crisis. Despite increasing demand for accurate measures conflict severity, mortality estimates remain challenging due to inherent `statistical fog war' surrounding conflicts. In particular, quantification is hindered uncertainties related incomplete reporting uncertain age-sex distributions casualties. Official death tolls are likely influenced...

The Gini coefficient of the life table is a concentration index that provides information on lifespan variation. Originally proposed by economists to measure income and wealth inequalities, it has been widely used in population studies investigate variation ages at death. We focus complement coefficient, Drewnowski's index, which equality. study its mathematical properties analyze how changes over time relate expectancy. Further, we identify threshold age below mortality improvements are...

The Israel-Hamas war, triggered by the October 7th 2023 Hamas-led attack in Israel, has caused extensive mortality and sparked a major humanitarian crisis region. Direct conflict been mostly concentrated among non-combatants Gaza Strip. Here, most of population internally displaced faces limited access to food, water, shelter, sanitation, essential health services. We aim assess impact deaths reported between December on life expectancy at birth (LE) Palestine —including Gaza, West Bank,...

Abstract Drawing cohort profiles and forecasts from grids of age–period data is common practice in demography. In this research note, we (1) show how demographic measures artificially fluctuate when calculated the diagonals rates because timing cohort-size bias, (2) estimate magnitude these biases, (3) illustrate prediction intervals for indicators mortality may become implausible drawn Lee–Carter methods grids. These biases are surprisingly large, even created single-age, single-year period...

BACKGROUNDIn recent years, lifespan inequality has become an important indicator of population health.Uncovering the statistical properties measures can provide novel insights on study mortality.

In many low-mortality countries, life expectancy at birth increased steadily over the last century. particular, both Italian females and males benefited from faster improvements in mortality compared to other high-income especially 1960s, leading an exceptional increase expectancy. However, Italy has not become leader longevity. Here, we investigate trends during period 1960-2015 for sexes. Additionally, contribute existing literature by complementing with indicator of dispersion ages death,...

Studies examining how diet affects mortality risk over age typically characterise using parameters such as aging rates, which condense much and quickly the of dying changes time into a single measure. Demographers have suggested that decoupling tempo magnitude changing may facilitate comparative analyses trajectories, but it is unclear what biologically meaningful information this approach offers. Here, we determine amount ratio protein carbohydrate ingested by female Drosophila melanogaster...

The prediction of human longevity levels in the future by direct forecasting life expectancy offers numerous advantages, compared to methods based on extrapolation age-specific death rates. However, reconstruction accurate tables starting from a given level at birth, or any other age, is not straightforward. Model have been extensively used for estimating age patterns mortality poor-data countries. We propose new model inspired indirect estimation techniques applied demography, which can be...

Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented worldwide to curb the spread of COVID-19. However, effectiveness such governmental measures in reducing mortality burden remains a key question scientific interest and public debate. In this study, we leverage digital mobility data assess effects reduced human on excess mortality, focusing regional England Wales between February August 2020. We estimate robust association reductions lower after adjusting for time trends differences...