A5004460642- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Hydrocarbon exploration and reservoir analysis
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Coastal and Marine Dynamics
- Climate variability and models
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Coastal and Marine Management
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Coastal wetland ecosystem dynamics
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Advanced Software Engineering Methodologies
- Climate Change and Sustainable Development
- Fire effects on ecosystems
- Service-Oriented Architecture and Web Services
- Advanced Database Systems and Queries
University of Lisbon
2004-2025
Instituto Dom Luiz
2023-2024
IHE Delft Institute for Water Education
2022-2024
Climate indices are developed to determine climate impacts on different socioeconomic sectors, providing a comprehensive communication of complex information arising from change assessments. These may be used by decision-makers properly and timely implement adaptation measures in sectors human activity, such as agriculture crop selection, forest, coastal management, among others. Here, we present analysis estimated for Portugal, known hotspot. A multi-variable 13-member ensemble EURO-CORDEX...
Climate projections are a powerful tool that can help decision makers to timely prepare adaptation policies, which may then be efficiently implemented. In this study, comprehensive analysis of how climate change affect Portugal (located in hotspot) is conducted, providing the foundations first National Roadmap for Adaptation 2100. A multi-variable ensemble was built and tested, being baseline assessing future three different emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) throughout 21st...
Abstract. Deep learning (DL) methods have recently garnered attention from the climate change community for being an innovative approach to downscaling variables Earth system and global models (ESGCMs) with horizontal resolutions still too coarse represent regional- local-scale phenomena. In context of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), ESGCM simulations were conducted Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) at ranging 0.70 3.75∘....
Abstract Coastal wave storms pose a massive threat to over 10% of the world’s population now inhabiting low elevation coastal zone and trillions $ worth infrastructure developments therein. Using ~ 40-year hindcast, we here present world-first assessment wind-wave storminess along global coastline. regions are ranked in terms main storm characteristics, showing Northwestern Europe Southwestern South America suffer, on average, most intense Yellow Sea coast South-African Namibian coasts be...
Abstract Global wave hindcasts are developed using the third generation spectral model WAVEWATCH III with observation‐based source terms (ST6) and a hybrid rectilinear‐curvilinear, irregular‐regular‐irregular grid system (approximately at ). Three distinct global produced: (a) long‐term hindcast (1979–2019) forced by ERA5 conventional winds (b) two short‐term (2011–2019) driven NCEP climate forecast (CFS)v2 neutral , respectively. The input field for ice is sourced from Ocean Sea Ice...
In the first days of 2014, exceptionally energetic swells associated to Hercules storm (also known as "Christina") produced one most devastating coastal events in Portugal, establishing new records long-term wave observations for area. Between January 6th and 7th, extreme flooding affected >30 municipalities along Portuguese coastlines, with buoys measuring maximum individual heights periods 14.91 m 28.10 s, respectively. The caused >16 million euros direct costs, due overtopping flooding,...
Some of the most disruptive effects climate change are projected to be felt along coastlines. The combined future changes in water levels and wave coastal areas constitute one serious threats their sustainable evolution, compromising critical infrastructures, resources, ecosystems, communities. Understanding long-term remains challenging, however, due multivariate multi-time-and-space-scale nature. In this study, we propose an innovative methodology for a complete vulnerability assessment...
Abstract The energy content of wind-waves is propagated across the oceans in form swell waves, main drivers long-term changes coastal morphology and offshore hazards. A state-of-the-art tracking algorithm applied to a global ensemble CMIP5 dynamic wave climate projections, assess future remotely originated events towards end 21st century, how they propagate. contribution multiple generation areas considered. It found that projected change signal effectively from winds along extratropical...
A performance evaluation is conducted for a state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)-derived ensemble of global wave climate simulations. single-model (forcing), single-scenario approach considered to build the ensemble, where differentiating factor between each member model or physics parameterization used simulate waves. The 7-member evaluated 1995-2014 historical period, highlighting impact multiple source terms on its robustness. ensemble's ability...
A Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)-derived single-forcing, single-model, and single-scenario dynamic wind-wave climate ensemble is presented, its historic period (1979–2005) performance in representing the present wave evaluated. single global model (GCM)-forcing was produced with goal of reducing inter GCM variability inherent using a multi-forcing approach for same model. Seven CMIP5 EC-Earth runs were used to force seven WAM realizations, while future simulations, not...
Some of the most disruptive effects climate change are projected to be felt along coastlines. The combined future changes in water levels and wave coastal areas constitute one serious threats their sustainable evolution, compromising critical infrastructures, resources, ecosystems, communities. Understanding long-term remains challenging, however, due multivariate multi-time-and-space-scale nature. In this study, we propose an innovative methodology for a complete vulnerability assessment...
Abstract A quantile-based bias-correction method is applied to a seven-member dynamic ensemble of global wave climate simulations with the aim reducing significant height H S , mean period T m and direction (MWD) biases, in comparison ERA5 reanalysis. The corresponding projected changes toward end twenty-first century are assessed. Seven CMIP5 EC-EARTH runs (single forcing) were used force seven model (WAM) realizations model), following RCP8.5 scenario scenario). biases for 1979–2005...
Abstract Wave phenomena impact high commercial value coastal and offshore activities, infrastructures transportation. The knowledge of future wave conditions allows for consistent long‐term planning decision‐making. present study aims to provide robust, reliable projections the potential Black Sea under influence climate change. For this purpose, an eight‐member dynamic ensemble that accurately represents Sea's has been produced, are assessed analysed here. was obtained by forcing Simulating...
Abstract Climate change poses a formidable strain on societies worldwide, demanding viable and timely adaptation measures to ensure future prosperity while avoiding the impact of more frequent intense extreme events, like wildfires, that affect all continents biomes, leaving authorities grappling respond effectively. Here, we focus mainland Portugal is inserted in Mediterranean climate hotspot investigate different strategies wildfire risk. Relying an ensemble regional models from...
Episodic extreme coastal flooding is considered one of the most serious threats to global coastlines, endangering infrastructure, ecosystems, and communities. The synchronized effects wave events, storm surges astronomical tides are particularly worrying in context sea level rise (SLR), a comprehensive understanding their future dynamics remains challenging. In this study, an innovative approach for vulnerability assessment sandy low-lying areas, based on dynamic ensemble projections...
Abstract This study investigates the epistemic uncertainty associated with wave propagation modeling in climate projections. A single-forcing, single-scenario, seven-member global projection ensemble is used, developed using three models a consistent numerical domain. The assessed through projected changes height, period, and direction. relative importance of model used its internal parameterization are examined. former dominant source approximately two-thirds ocean. reveals divergences from...
A detailed climatology of ocean wind waves in the South Atlantic Ocean, based on ERA-5 reanalysis and a higher-resolution wave hindcast (ERA-5H), both developed by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, is presented. The higher resolution fields ERA-5H (22 km) allowed better description sea swell features compared to previous global regional studies along Brazilian coast. Overall, it shown that are more prevalent carry energy offshore area study area, while dominate nearshore...
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Abstract The Iberian Peninsula is a known climate change hotspot. In the last decades, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has allowed for thousands of Global Climate (GCM) simulations to be conducted, an important tool assess and understand future changes in Earth's climate. comparison past projections with observations provides robust evaluation models’ skill according different emission scenarios. Here, comprehensive performance assessment GCM‐simulated mean, maximum, minimum...
This study is focused on the impact of different parameterizations in state-of-the art wave model WAVEWATCH3 (WW3) describing present climate and future projections. We have used a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)-derived single-wind forcing (from EC-EARTH) to produce dynamic wind-wave ensemble for its historic (1995–2014) (2081–2100) periods. discuss uncertainty due (intra-model uncertainty) simulating climate. The historical runs were compared against ERA5 reanalysis...