A5070944599- Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Astro and Planetary Science
- Viral Infections and Vectors
- Malaria Research and Control
- Zoonotic diseases and public health
- Planetary Science and Exploration
- Gamma-ray bursts and supernovae
- Stellar, planetary, and galactic studies
- Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism Studies
- Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life
- Virology and Viral Diseases
- COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Human Mobility and Location-Based Analysis
- Health and Conflict Studies
- COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Laser-induced spectroscopy and plasma
- Urban Transport and Accessibility
- Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- Migration, Aging, and Tourism Studies
- Cognitive Science and Education Research
- Bird parasitology and diseases
- Statistical Methods and Applications
- Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
University of Notre Dame
2016-2022
Harvard University
2022
University of Denver
2014-2015
The impact of global warming on insect-borne diseases and highland malaria in particular remains controversial. Temperature is known to influence transmission intensity through its effects the population growth mosquito vector pathogen development within vector. Spatiotemporal data at a regional scale highlands Colombia Ethiopia supplied an opportunity examine how spatial distribution disease changes with interannual variability temperature. We provide evidence for increase altitude warmer...
Epidemic growth rate, r, provides a more complete description of the potential for epidemics than commonly studied basic reproduction number, R0, yet former has never been described as function temperature dengue virus or other pathogens with temperature-sensitive transmission. The need to understand drivers these is acute, arthropod-borne becoming increasingly problematic. We addressed this by developing temperature-dependent descriptions two components r—R0 and generation interval—to...
Abstract Vector-borne diseases display wide inter-annual variation in seasonal epidemic size due to their complex dependence on temporally variable environmental conditions and other factors. In 2014, Guangzhou, China experienced its worst dengue record, with incidence exceeding the historical average by two orders of magnitude. To disentangle contributions from multiple factors size, we fitted a semi-mechanistic model time series data 2005–2015 performed factorial simulation experiments...
Abstract Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties epidemiology emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among alternative model structures and assumptions. To assess potential for affect their spread, we evaluated performance 16 forecasting models context 2015-2016 Zika epidemic Colombia. Each featured a different combination assumptions human mobility, spatiotemporal variation...
Abstract A counterargument to the importance of climate change for malaria transmission has been that regions where an effect warmer temperatures is expected, have experienced a marked decrease in seasonal epidemic size since turn new century. This decline observed densely populated highlands East Africa at center earlier debate on causes pronounced increase from 1970s 1990s. The turnaround incidence trend around 2000 documented here with extensive temporal record cases both Plasmodium...
Several hundred thousand Zika cases have been reported across the Americas since 2015. Incidence of infection was likely much higher, however, due to a high frequency asymptomatic and other challenges that surveillance systems faced. Using hierarchical Bayesian model with empirically-informed priors, we leveraged multiple types case data from 15 countries estimate subnational reporting probabilities attack rates (IARs). IAR estimates ranged 0.084 (95% CrI: 0.067–0.096) in Peru 0.361...
A better understanding of malaria persistence in highly seasonal environments such as highlands and desert fringes requires identifying the factors behind spatial reservoir pathogen low season. In these 'unstable' regions, reservoirs play a critical role by allowing during transmission season therefore, between outbreaks. East Africa, most populated epidemic regions temperature is expected to be intimately connected where space disease able persist because pronounced altitudinal gradients....
Abstract Despite a long history of mosquito-borne virus epidemics in the Americas, impact Zika (ZIKV) epidemic 2015–2016 was unexpected. The need for scientifically informed decision-making is driving research to understand emergence and spread ZIKV. To support that research, we assembled data set key covariates modeling ZIKV transmission dynamics Colombia, where widespread government made incidence publically available. On weekly basis between January 1, 2014 October 2016 at three...
The earliest confirmed interstellar object, `Oumuamua, was discovered in the Solar System by Pan-STARRS 2017, allowing for a calibration of abundance objects its size $\sim 100\;$ m. This followed discovery Borisov, which allowed similar 0.4 - 1 \mathrm{\; km}$. One would expect much higher significantly smaller objects, with some them colliding Earth frequently enough to be noticeable. Based on CNEOS catalog bolide events, we identify 0.45$m meteor detected at 2014-01-08 17:05:34 UTC as...
Abstract Numerous Zika virus vaccines are being developed. However, identifying sites to evaluate the efficacy of a vaccine is challenging due general decrease in activity. We compare results from three different modeling approaches estimate areas that may have increased relative risk transmission during 2017. The analysis focused on eight priority countries (i.e., Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, and Peru). models projected low incidence rates 2017...
Tropical highland malaria intensifies and shifts to higher altitudes during exceptionally warm years. Above-normal temperatures associated with El Niño boreal winter months (December-March) may intensify in East African highlands. We assessed the risk for Oromia, largest region of Ethiopia around 30 million inhabitants.Simple linear regression spatial analyses were used associate sea surface (SST) Pacific annual based on confirmed cases between 1982 2005.A strong association (R2 = 0.6, P <...
Since its emergence in late December 2019, COVID-19 has rapidly developed into a pandemic mid of March with many countries suffering heavy human loss and declaring emergency conditions to contain spread. The impact the disease, while it been relatively low sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as May 2020, is feared be potentially devastating given less fragmented healthcare system continent. In addition, most measures practised may not effective due their limited affordability well communal way people...
Abstract Background Despite large outbreaks in humans seeming improbable for a number of zoonotic pathogens, several pose concern due to their epidemiological characteristics and evolutionary potential. To enable effective responses these pathogens the event that they undergo future emergence, Coalition Epidemic Preparedness Innovations is advancing development vaccines prioritized by World Health Organization. A major challenge this pursuit anticipating demand vaccine stockpile support...
Abstract Zika virus is a mosquito-borne pathogen that rapidly spreading across the Americas. Due to associations between infection and range of fetal maladies 1,2 , epidemic trajectory this viral poses significant concern for nearly 15 million children born in Americas each year. Ascertaining portion population truly at risk an important priority. One recent estimate 3 suggested 5.42 childbearing women live areas are suitable occurrence. To improve on estimate, which did not take into...
Mathematical models of transmission dynamics are routinely fitted to epidemiological time series, which must inevitably be aggregated at some spatial scale. Weekly case reports chikungunya have been made available nationally for numerous countries in the Western Hemisphere since late 2013, and use this data set forecasting inferential purposes. Motivated by an abundance literature suggesting that mosquito-borne pathogen is localized scales much finer than nationally, we three different...
The first interstellar object, `Oumuamua, was discovered in the Solar System by Pan-STARRS 2017, allowing for a calibration of impact rate meteors its size $\sim 100\;$m. discovery CNEOS 2014-01-08 allowed 1\;$m. Analysis dust grains have calibrations smaller down to 10^{-8}\;$m. We analyze distribution meteors, finding that smooth power-law fits form $N(r)\propto r^{-q}$, possible values $q$ are range $3.41 \pm 0.17$. then consider possibility analyzing learn about their parent planetary...
Time series data provide a crucial window into infectious disease dynamics, yet their utility is often limited by the spatially aggregated form in which they are presented. When working with time data, violating implicit assumption of homogeneous dynamics below scale spatial aggregation could bias inferences about underlying processes. We tested this context 2015-2016 Zika epidemic Colombia, where weekly case reports were available at national, departmental, and municipal scales. First, we...
We have conducted an extensive towed-magnetic-sled survey during the period 14-28 June, 2023, over seafloor centered around calculated path of bolide CNEOS 2014-01-08 (IM1) about 85 km north Manus Island, Papua New Guinea. found 700 spherules diameter 0.05-1.3 millimeters in our samples, which 57 were analyzed so far. The significantly concentrated along expected meteor path. Mass spectrometry 47 near high-yield regions IM1's reveals a distinct extra-solar abundance pattern for 5 them, while...
Human mobility, both short and long term, are important considerations in the study of numerous systems. Economic technological advances have led to a more interconnected global community, further increasing need for human mobility. While data on mobility better recorded many developed countries, availability such remains limited low- middle-income countries around world, particularly at fine temporal spatial scales required by applications. In this study, we used 5-year census-based...
Sensitivity to modeling assumptions and statistical uncertainty undermine confidence in disease burden estimates for yellow fever.