A5002683809- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Viral Infections and Vectors
- Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- Pneumonia and Respiratory Infections
- Zoonotic diseases and public health
- Insect symbiosis and bacterial influences
- Respiratory viral infections research
- Child and Adolescent Health
- Virology and Viral Diseases
- COVID-19 Digital Contact Tracing
- Dengue and Mosquito Control Research
- COVID-19 and Mental Health
- Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Vector-borne infectious diseases
- Immunodeficiency and Autoimmune Disorders
- Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology
- Public Health Policies and Education
- Vibrio bacteria research studies
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- SARS-CoV-2 detection and testing
- Data Analysis with R
- Digital Economy and Work Transformation
- Malaria Research and Control
Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA (United States)
2024-2025
Decision Sciences (United States)
2025
University of Notre Dame
2016-2023
University of Chicago
2021-2022
United Nations Children's Fund Cameroon
2021
United Nations Children's Fund Kosovo
2021
United Nations Children's Fund Niger
2021
United Nations Children's Fund
2021
United Nations Children's Fund India
2021
Significance In early 2020, delays in availability of diagnostic testing for COVID-19 prompted questions about the extent unobserved community transmission United States. We quantified infections States during this time using a stochastic model. Although precision our estimates is limited, we conclude that many more thousands people were infected than reported as cases by national emergency was declared and fewer 10% locally acquired, symptomatic may have been detected over period month....
After the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in Americas 2016, both and dengue incidence declined to record lows many countries 2017-2018, but 2019 resurged Brazil, causing ~2.1 million cases. In this study we use epidemiological, climatological genomic data investigate dynamics recent years Brazil. First, estimate force of infection (FOI) model mosquito-borne transmission suitability since early 2000s. Our estimates reveal that DENV was low despite conditions being suitable for viral spread. also...
Epidemic growth rate, r, provides a more complete description of the potential for epidemics than commonly studied basic reproduction number, R0, yet former has never been described as function temperature dengue virus or other pathogens with temperature-sensitive transmission. The need to understand drivers these is acute, arthropod-borne becoming increasingly problematic. We addressed this by developing temperature-dependent descriptions two components r—R0 and generation interval—to...
Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches decision analysis, expert judgment, aggregation, we convened multiple teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies a mid-sized United States county early in pandemic. Projections seventeen distinct models were...
Abstract Vector-borne diseases display wide inter-annual variation in seasonal epidemic size due to their complex dependence on temporally variable environmental conditions and other factors. In 2014, Guangzhou, China experienced its worst dengue record, with incidence exceeding the historical average by two orders of magnitude. To disentangle contributions from multiple factors size, we fitted a semi-mechanistic model time series data 2005–2015 performed factorial simulation experiments...
Abstract Policymakers make decisions about COVID-19 management in the face of considerable uncertainty. We convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate reopening strategies for a mid-sized county United States, novel process designed fully express scientific uncertainty while reducing linguistic and cognitive biases. For scenarios considered, consensus from 17 distinct models was that second outbreak will occur within 6 months reopening, unless schools non-essential workplaces remain closed....
In the United States, schools closed in March 2020 due to COVID-19 and began reopening August 2020, despite continuing transmission of SARS-CoV-2. states where in-person instruction resumed at that time, two major unknowns were capacity which would operate, depended on proportion families opting for remote instruction, adherence face-mask requirements schools, cooperation from students enforcement by schools. To determine impact these conditions statewide burden Indiana, we used an...
Abstract Background In the United States, pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) were first recommended for use in children 2000, and approximately 82% currently receive full 3+1 schedule. As of May 2024, adults aged 65 years older are to PCV15+PPSV23 or PCV20. Approximately 60% have received at least one vaccination. A new investigational PCV, V116, is designed specifically adults, as it contains 21 serotypes which account majority disease including 8 unique not included any other licensed...
Abstract Background In France, effective pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) and the high vaccine coverage rate (VCR) of 95% have led to a substantial decline in pediatric invasive disease (IPD) incidence. PCV13 is currently used 2+1 dosing regimen; PCV15 PCV20 are expected be introduced soon. Breakthrough IPD (bIPD), defined as fully vaccinated individuals who develop type IPD, persists for some serotypes (STs). As ST-specific immune responses decrease with increased PCV valency,...
Abstract Background In the United States, there are two age-based pneumococcal vaccine recommendations – children aged 0-2 years and adults 65+ years. Adults 50-64 recommended to receive a if at increased risk of disease; disease burden in this age groups represents third highest level disease. PCV20, 20-valent PCV, PCV15 higher valent vaccines currently approved for adults. V116, an investigational adult specific PCV is being developed specifically broaden protection population, by...
Abstract Background In France, pneumococcal vaccination recommendations exist for children aged 0-2 years and adults with certain risk conditions. Despite most countries having age-based in over the age of 60 or 65 years, there is no adult recommendation France. Since May 2024, PCV20, a 20-valent conjugate vaccine (PCV) has been recommended V116 new focused PCV developed to prevent 21 serotypes that occur commonly (86%of IPD). Table 1: IPD incidence per 100,000 individuals 65+ year old...
Abstract Background Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) were first introduced in the pediatric United Kingdom (UK) immunization program 2006 and subsequently led to a significant decline invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) for vaccine type serotypes (STs). Although PCVs provide some indirect protection adults, IPD burden remains older adults. Here, we compared three adult 65+ year-old population: current recommendation of PPV23, recently licensed-in-adults PCV20, new adult-focused...
Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) were first introduced in the paediatric United Kingdom (UK) immunisation programme 2006 which led to significant declines invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) caused by targeted serotypes. Although PCVs provide some indirect protection adults, a IPD burden remains older adults. Here, we compared three adult (65+ years-old) and risk group (2–64-year-old) vaccination scenarios, namely continuation of status quo with PPSV23 vaccination, using recently...
Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have been increasing in valency to protect against a larger number of serotypes; however, the addition serotypes has come at cost reduced immunogenicity, which may lead breakthrough disease. This study used mathematical model evaluate impact introducing routine vaccination with either PCV15 or PCV20 on invasive pneumococcal disease (bIPD) incidence associated PCV13 infants aged 0–12 months France. The incorporated historical PCV introductions and...
Introduction: In 2020 the UK National Immunization Programme reduced pediatric dosing schedule for pneumococcal vaccination with PCV13 from 2 doses in infancy followed by a toddler dose (2+1 schedule) to 1 (1+1 schedule). Real world data on vaccine effectiveness (VE) against invasive disease (IPD) under is not available, nor VE associated higher valency vaccines, including PCV15. This analysis investigates changes projected outcomes potential reductions IPD and PCV15 1+1 schedule. Methods: A...
Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP) is a bacterial pathogen that kills more than 300,000 children every year across the globe. Multiple vaccines exist prevent pneumococcal disease, with each vaccine covering variable number of 100 known serotypes. Due to high effectiveness these vaccines, new conjugate (PCV) introduction has resulted in decrease vaccine-type disease and shift serotype distribution towards non-vaccine types phenomenon called replacement. Here, an age-structured compartmental model...
Abstract Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties epidemiology emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among alternative model structures and assumptions. To assess potential for affect their spread, we evaluated performance 16 forecasting models context 2015-2016 Zika epidemic Colombia. Each featured a different combination assumptions human mobility, spatiotemporal variation...
During the 2015–2017 Zika epidemic, dengue and chikungunya–two other viral diseases with same vector as Zika–were also in circulation. Clinical presentation of these can vary from person to terms symptoms severity, making it difficult differentially diagnose them. Under circumstances, is possible that numerous cases could have been misdiagnosed or chikungunya, vice versa. Given importance surveillance data for informing epidemiological analyses, our aim was quantify potential extent...
Several hundred thousand Zika cases have been reported across the Americas since 2015. Incidence of infection was likely much higher, however, due to a high frequency asymptomatic and other challenges that surveillance systems faced. Using hierarchical Bayesian model with empirically-informed priors, we leveraged multiple types case data from 15 countries estimate subnational reporting probabilities attack rates (IARs). IAR estimates ranged 0.084 (95% CrI: 0.067–0.096) in Peru 0.361...
Abstract By March 2020, COVID-19 led to thousands of deaths and disrupted economic activity worldwide. As a result narrow case definitions limited capacity for testing, the number unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections during its initial invasion US remains unknown. We developed an approach estimating based on data that are commonly available shortly after emergence new infectious disease. The logic our is, in essence, there bounds amount exponential growth can occur first few weeks imported cases...
Abstract Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP) is a bacterial pathogen that kills more than 300,000 children every year across the globe. Multiple vaccines exist prevent pneumococcal disease, with each vaccine covering variable number of 100 known serotypes. Due to high effectiveness these vaccines, new conjugate (PCV) introduction has resulted in decrease vaccine-type disease and shift serotype distribution towards non-vaccine types phenomenon called replacement. Here, an age-structured...
Abstract In the United States, schools closed in March 2020 due to COVID-19 and began reopening August 2020, despite continuing transmission of SARS-CoV-2. states where in-person instruction resumed at that time, two major unknowns were capacity which would operate, depended on proportion families opting for remote instruction, adherence face-mask requirements schools, cooperation from students enforcement by schools. To determine impact these conditions statewide burden Indiana, we used an...
Abstract After Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged and caused an epidemic in the Americas 2016, both dengue incidence declined following years (2017-2018) to a record low many countries. Following this period of incidence, resurged 2019 Brazil, causing ~2.1 million cases. The reasons for recent fluctuations maintenance (DENV) through periods transmission are unknown. To investigate this, we used combination epidemiological climatological data estimate force infection (FOI) model mosquito-borne...