A5017711145- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions
- Economic and Environmental Valuation
- HIV Research and Treatment
- Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology
- Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- Water resources management and optimization
- Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Adolescent Sexual and Reproductive Health
- Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- COVID-19 Digital Contact Tracing
- HIV, Drug Use, Sexual Risk
- SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Agricultural risk and resilience
- Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Forest Management and Policy
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- HIV/AIDS Impact and Responses
- Disaster Management and Resilience
- Zoonotic diseases and public health
- COVID-19 and Mental Health
- Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Urban, Neighborhood, and Segregation Studies
- Medical Coding and Health Information
- Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
World Health Organization
2024
University of Oxford
2019-2024
Open Data Institute
2021-2024
World Health Organization - Jordan
2023
World Health Organization Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean
2023
Cardinal Glennon Children’s Medical Center
2023
Jordan Hospital
2023
Health Data Research UK
2023
ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions
2014-2018
The University of Queensland
2009-2018
SARS-CoV-2 has spread across the world, causing high mortality and unprecedented restrictions on social economic activity. Policymakers are assessing how best to navigate through ongoing epidemic, with computational models being used predict of infection assess impact public health measures. Here, we present OpenABM-Covid19: an agent-based simulation epidemic including detailed age-stratification realistic networks. By default model is parameterised UK demographics calibrated however, it can...
Expert elicitation methods and a structured decision-making framework will help account for risk uncertainty
Abstract Contact tracing is increasingly used to combat COVID-19, and digital implementations are now being deployed, many based on Apple Google’s Exposure Notification System. These systems utilize non-traditional smartphone-based technology, presenting challenges in understanding possible outcomes. In this work, we create individual-based models of three Washington state counties explore how exposure notifications combined with other non-pharmaceutical interventions influence COVID-19...
Abstract SARS-CoV-2 has spread across the world, causing high mortality and unprecedented restrictions on social economic activity. Policymakers are assessing how best to navigate through ongoing epidemic, with models being used predict of infection assess impact public health measures. Here, we present OpenABM-Covid19: an agent-based simulation epidemic including detailed age-stratification realistic networks. By default model is parameterised UK demographics calibrated however, it can...
Probabilistic predictions support public health planning and decision making, especially in infectious disease emergencies. Aggregating outputs from multiple models yields more robust of outcomes associated uncertainty. While the selection an aggregation method can be guided by retrospective performance evaluations, this is not always possible. For example, if are conditional on assumptions about how future will unfold (e.g. possible interventions), these may never materialize, precluding...
Across many fields, scenario modeling has become an important tool for exploring long-term projections and how they might depend on potential interventions critical uncertainties, with relevance to both decision makers scientists. In the past decade, especially during COVID-19 pandemic, field of epidemiology seen substantial growth in use projections. Multiple scenarios are often projected at same time, allowing comparisons that can guide choice intervention, prioritization research topics,...
Adaptive management has a long history in the natural resource literature, but despite this, few practitioners have developed adaptive strategies to conserve threatened species. Active provides framework for valuing learning by measuring degree which it improves long-run outcomes. The challenge of an active approach is find correct balance between gaining knowledge improve future and achieving best short-term outcome based on current knowledge. We develop analyze Our case study concerns...
Abstract Conservation outcomes are uncertain. Agencies making decisions about what threat mitigation actions to take save which species frequently face the dilemma of whether invest in with high probability success and guaranteed benefits or choose projects a greater risk failure that might provide higher if they succeed. The answer this lies decision maker's aversion risk—their unwillingness accept uncertain outcomes. Little guidance exists on how preferences affect conservation investment...
Formal decision-analytic methods can be used to frame disease control problems, the first step of which is define a clear and specific objective. We demonstrate imperative framing clearly-defined management objectives in finding optimal actions for outbreaks. illustrate an analysis that applied rapidly at start outbreak when there are multiple stakeholders involved with potentially objectives, also models upon compare actions. The output our frames subsequent discourse between policy-makers,...
In the event of a new infectious disease outbreak, mathematical and simulation models are commonly used to inform policy by evaluating which control strategies will minimize impact epidemic. early stages such outbreaks, substantial parameter uncertainty may limit ability provide accurate predictions, policymakers do not have luxury waiting for data alleviate this state uncertainty. For policymakers, however, it is selection optimal intervention in face uncertainty, rather than accuracy model...
Abstract Contact tracing is increasingly being used to combat COVID-19, and digital implementations are now deployed, many of them based on Apple Google’s Exposure Notification System. These systems new smartphone technology that has not traditionally been for this purpose, presenting challenges in understanding possible outcomes. In work, we use individual-based computational models explore how exposure notifications can be conjunction with non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as...
Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches decision analysis, expert judgment, aggregation, we convened multiple teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies a mid-sized United States county early in pandemic. Projections seventeen distinct models were...
Significance The 2014 Ebola outbreak illustrates the complexities of decision making in face explosive epidemics; management interventions must be enacted, despite imperfect or missing information. wide range projected caseload generated attention as a source uncertainty, but debate did not address whether uncertainty affected choice action. By reevaluating 37 published models, we show that most models concur reducing funeral transmission and community are robust effective actions to...
In a global environment of increasing species extinctions and decreasing availability funds with which to combat the causes biodiversity loss, maximising efficiency conservation efforts is crucial. The only way ensure maximum return on investment incorporate cost, benefit likelihood success actions into decision-making in systematic objective way. Here we report application Project Prioritization Protocol (PPP), first implemented by New Zealand Government, target prioritize threatened South...
Abstract Policymakers make decisions about COVID-19 management in the face of considerable uncertainty. We convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate reopening strategies for a mid-sized county United States, novel process designed fully express scientific uncertainty while reducing linguistic and cognitive biases. For scenarios considered, consensus from 17 distinct models was that second outbreak will occur within 6 months reopening, unless schools non-essential workplaces remain closed....
Mathematical models are useful for public health planning and response to infectious disease threats. However, different can provide differing results, which hamper decision making if not synthesized appropriately. To address this challenge, multi-model hubs convene independent modeling groups generate ensembles, known more accurate predictions of future outcomes. Yet, these resource intensive, how many sufficient in a hub is known. Here, we compare the benefit from multiple contexts: (1)...
BackgroundThe HPTN 071 (PopART) trial showed that a combination HIV prevention package including universal testing and treatment (UTT) reduced population-level incidence of compared with standard care. However, evidence is scarce on the costs cost-effectiveness such an intervention.MethodsUsing individual-based model, we simulated PopART intervention care antiretroviral therapy (ART) provided according to national guidelines for 21 communities in Zambia South Africa (for all individuals aged...
The number of all possible epidemics a given infectious disease that could occur on landscape is large for systems real-world complexity. Furthermore, there no guarantee the control actions are optimal, average, over also best each epidemic. Reinforcement learning (RL) and Monte Carlo have been used to develop machine-readable context-dependent solutions complex problems with many realizations ranging from video-games game Go. RL be valuable tool generate policies outbreak response, though...
The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been extended by the evolution of more transmissible viral variants. In autumn 2020, B.1.177 lineage became dominant variant in England, before being replaced B.1.1.7 (Alpha) late with sweep occurring at different times each region. This period coincided a large number non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g. lockdowns) to control epidemic, making it difficult estimate relative transmissibility this paper, we model spatial spread these variants England using...
A focus of conservation planning is to maximize the probability species persistence, but this may reduce number that can be secured with a limited budget. Using data set 700 New Zealand species, we examine trade-off between providing high level persistence for some and lower more species. We find target delivers highest outcome function annual budget, such budgets have optimal targets. However, it never manage below 75% persistence. introduce prioritization approach maximizes biodiversity...
Abstract Policy documents advocate that managers should keep their options open while planning to protect coastal ecosystems from climate‐change impacts. However, the actual costs and benefits of maintaining flexibility remain largely unexplored, alternative approaches for decision making under uncertainty may lead better joint outcomes conservation other societal goals. For example, keeping incurs opportunity developers. We devised a framework integrates these with probabilistic forecasts...
Foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in non-endemic countries can lead to large economic costs and livestock losses but the use of vaccination has been contentious, partly due uncertainty about emergency FMD vaccination. Value information methods be applied outbreak problems such as order investigate performance improvement from resolving uncertainties. Here we calculate expected value vaccine efficacy, time delay immunity after daily capacity for a hypothetical UK. If it were possible resolve...