A5036326609- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Neural dynamics and brain function
- HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions
- HIV, Drug Use, Sexual Risk
- HIV/AIDS Impact and Responses
- Neuroscience and Neural Engineering
- Advanced Memory and Neural Computing
- SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Functional Brain Connectivity Studies
- EEG and Brain-Computer Interfaces
- Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- Global Maternal and Child Health
- Photoreceptor and optogenetics research
- COVID-19 Digital Contact Tracing
- Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Adolescent Sexual and Reproductive Health
- Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Infection Control and Ventilation
- Poverty, Education, and Child Welfare
- Cervical Cancer and HPV Research
- COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- HIV Research and Treatment
- COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- Sex work and related issues
Gates Foundation
2020-2024
Institute for Disease Modeling
2020-2024
The University of Sydney
2014-2024
Burnet Institute
2016-2023
QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute
2023
Twitter (United States)
2022
Seattle University
2022
University of Copenhagen
2021-2022
Bellevue Hospital Center
2020
SUNY Downstate Health Sciences University
2010-2018
The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for models that can project epidemic trends, explore intervention scenarios, and estimate resource needs. Here we describe the methodology of Covasim (COVID-19 Agent-based Simulator), open-source model developed to help address these questions. includes country-specific demographic information on age structure population size; realistic transmission networks in different social layers, including households, schools, workplaces, long-term care...
As lockdown measures to slow the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection begin ease in UK, it is important assess impact any changes policy, including school reopening and broader relaxation physical distancing measures. We aimed use an individual-based model predict two possible strategies for schools all students UK from September, 2020, combination with different assumptions about scale-up testing.In this modelling study, we used Covasim, a...
New WHO guidelines recommend ART initiation for HIV-positive persons with CD4 cell counts ≤500 cells/µL, a higher threshold than was previously recommended. Country decision makers must consider whether to further expand eligibility accordingly.We used multiple independent mathematical models in four settings-South Africa, Zambia, India, and Vietnam-to evaluate the potential health impact, costs, cost-effectiveness of different adult criteria under scenarios current expanded treatment...
Biophysical modeling of neuronal networks helps to integrate and interpret rapidly growing disparate experimental datasets at multiple scales. The NetPyNE tool (www.netpyne.org) provides both programmatic graphical interfaces develop data-driven multiscale network models in NEURON. clearly separates model parameters from implementation code. Users provide specifications a high level via standardized declarative language, for example connectivity rules, create millions cell-to-cell...
Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for models that can project epidemic trends, explore intervention scenarios, and estimate resource needs. Here we describe the methodology of Covasim (COVID-19 Agent-based Simulator), open-source model developed to help address these questions. includes country-specific demographic information on age structure population size; realistic transmission networks in different social layers, including households, schools, workplaces,...
Abstract Initial COVID-19 containment in the United States focused on limiting mobility, including school and workplace closures. However, these interventions have had enormous societal economic costs. Here, we demonstrate feasibility of an alternative control strategy, test-trace-quarantine: routine testing primarily symptomatic individuals, tracing their known contacts, placing contacts quarantine. We perform this analysis using Covasim, open-source agent-based model, which has been...
Optima is a software package for modeling HIV epidemics and interventions that we developed to address practical policy program problems encountered by funders, governments, health planners, implementers. Optima's key feature its ability perform resource optimization meet strategic objectives, including HIV-related financial commitment projections economic assessments. Specifically, allows users choose set of objectives (such as minimizing new infections, deaths, and/or long-term...
The emergence of the Brazilian variant concern, Gamma lineage (P.1), impacted epidemiological profile COVID-19 cases due to its higher transmissibility rate and immune evasion ability.
Objective: To evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of needle-syringe programs (NSPs) with respect to HIV hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections among Australian injecting drug users (IDUs). Design/methods: A health economic analysis was conducted incorporating a mathematical model HCV transmission IDUs. An empirical relationship between syringe availability receptive sharing (RSS) assessed. We compared epidemiological outcomes costs NSP coverage (status quo RSS 15–17%) scenarios that had...
Objectives To assess the risks associated with relaxing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related physical distancing restrictions and lockdown policies during a period of low viral transmission. Design Network-based transmission in households, schools, workplaces, variety community spaces activities were simulated an agent-based model, Covasim. Setting The model was calibrated for baseline scenario reflecting epidemiological policy environment Victoria March–May 2020, Intervention Policy...
This paper uses Covasim, an agent-based model (ABM) of COVID-19, to evaluate and scenarios epidemic spread in New York State (USA), the UK, Novosibirsk region (Russia). Epidemiological parameters such as contagiousness (virus transmission rate), initial number infected people, probability being tested depend on region's demographic geographical features, containment measures introduced; they are calibrated data about COVID-19 interest. At first stage our study, epidemiological (numbers...
As the UK reopened after first wave of COVID-19 epidemic, crucial questions emerged around role for ongoing interventions, including test-trace-isolate (TTI) strategies and mandatory masks. Here we assess importance masks in secondary schools by evaluating their impact over September 1-October 23, 2020. We show that, assuming TTI levels from August 2020 no fundamental changes virus's transmissibility, adoption would have reduced predicted size a second wave, but preventing it required 68% or...
Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches decision analysis, expert judgment, aggregation, we convened multiple teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies a mid-sized United States county early in pandemic. Projections seventeen distinct models were...
Vietnam has emerged as one of the world's leading success stories in responding to COVID-19. After a prolonged period little no transmission, there was an outbreak unknown source July, 2020, Da Nang region, but quickly suppressed. We aimed use epidemiological, behavioural, demographic, and policy data from COVID-19 calibrate agent-based model transmission for Vietnam, estimate risk future outbreaks associated with reopening international borders country.
In 2020, the WHO launched its first global strategy to accelerate elimination of cervical cancer, outlining an ambitious set targets for countries achieve over next decade. At same time, new tools, technologies, and strategies are in pipeline that may improve screening performance, expand reach prophylactic vaccines, prevent acquisition, persistence progression oncogenic HPV. Detailed mechanistic modelling can help identify combinations current future combat cancer. Open-source tools needed...
The basal ganglia play a crucial role in the execution of movements, as demonstrated by severe motor deficits that accompany Parkinson's disease (PD). Since commands originate cortex, an important question is how influence cortical information flow, and this becomes pathological PD. To explore this, we developed composite neuronal network/neural field model. network model consisted 4950 spiking neurons, divided into 15 excitatory inhibitory cell populations thalamus cortex. thalamus,...
Child stunting due to chronic malnutrition is a major problem in low- and middle-income countries due, part, inadequate nutrition-related practices insufficient access services. Limited budgets for nutritional interventions mean that available resources must be targeted the most cost-effective manner have greatest impact. Quantitative tools can help guide budget allocation decisions. The Optima approach an established framework conduct resource optimization analyses. We applied this develop...
Biomimetic simulation permits neuroscientists to better understand the complex neuronal dynamics of brain. Embedding a biomimetic in closed-loop neuroprosthesis, which can read and write signals from brain, will permit applications for amelioration motor, psychiatric, memory-related brain disorders. neuroprostheses require real-time adaptation changes external environment, thus constituting an example dynamic data-driven application system. As model fidelity increases, so does number...
The high burden of malaria and limited funding means there is a necessity to maximize the allocative efficiency control programmes. Quantitative tools are urgently needed guide budget allocation decisions. A geospatial epidemic model was coupled with costing data an optimization algorithm estimate optimal budgeted projected funds across all intervention approaches. Interventions included long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), intermittent presumptive...
The English SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been affected by the emergence of new viral variants such as B.1.177, Alpha and Delta, changing restrictions. We used statistical models agent-based model Covasim, in June 2021, to estimate B.1.177 be 20% more transmissible than wild type, 50-80% Delta 65-90% Alpha. Using these estimates Covasim (calibrated 1 September 2020 20 2021), we found that due high transmissibility resurgence infections driven variant would not prevented, but strongly reduced...
Long-term control of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks depends on the widespread coverage effective vaccines. In Australia, two-dose vaccination above 90% adult population was achieved. However, between August 2020 and 2021, hesitancy fluctuated dramatically. This raised question whether settings with low naturally derived immunity, such as Queensland where less than <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mn>0.005</mml:mn> <mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi> </mml:math> is...