A5048325232- Fire effects on ecosystems
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Climate variability and models
- Fire dynamics and safety research
- Disaster Management and Resilience
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Landslides and related hazards
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Rangeland and Wildlife Management
- Fire Detection and Safety Systems
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Peatlands and Wetlands Ecology
- Forest ecology and management
- Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Coastal wetland ecosystem dynamics
- Quality of Life Measurement
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Regional Development and Policy
- Remote Sensing in Agriculture
- Climate change and permafrost
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Species Distribution and Climate Change
Met Office
2016-2025
Environment and Climate Change Canada
2023
Universidad del Rosario
2023
Ritsumeikan University
2023
Kyoto University
2023
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
2023
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
2023
Institute of Atmospheric Physics
2023
National Institute for Environmental Studies
2023
Seoul National University
2023
Abstract Recent wildfire outbreaks around the world have prompted concern that climate change is increasing fire incidence, threatening human livelihood and biodiversity, perpetuating change. Here, we review current understanding of impacts on weather (weather conditions conducive to ignition spread wildfires) consequences for regional activity as mediated by a range other bioclimatic factors (including vegetation biogeography, productivity lightning) ignition, suppression, land use)....
This paper shows recent progress in our understanding of climate variability and trends the Amazon region, how these interact with land use change. The review includes an overview up-to-date information on hydrological variability, warming Amazonia, which reached 0.6-0.7 °C over last 40 years, 2016 as warmest year since at least 1950 (0.9 +0.3°C). We focus local remote drivers impacts length dry season, role forest carbon cycles, resilience forest, risk fires biomass burning, potential "die...
Abstract. This paper describes the rationale and protocol of first component third simulation round Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) associated set climate-related direct human forcing data (CRF DHF, respectively). The observation-based forcings for time include high-resolution observational climate derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, wind fields with historical tropical...
Abstract. Climate change contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society environment. However, our understanding global distribution extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage regionalised research efforts. This inaugural State Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying events from March 2023–February 2024 season. We assess causes, predictability, attribution these...
Abstract In this study, we use simulations from seven global vegetation models to provide the first multi‐model estimate of fire impacts on tree cover and carbon cycle under current climate anthropogenic land conditions, averaged for years 2001–2012. Fire globally reduces covered area storage by 10%. Regionally, effects are much stronger, up 20% certain latitudinal bands, 17% in savanna regions. Global total turnover times lower with effect gross primary productivity (GPP) close 0. We find...
Abstract. Disturbance of vegetation is a critical component land cover, but generally poorly constrained in surface and carbon cycle models. In particular, land-use change fire can be treated as large-scale disturbances without full representation their underlying complexities interactions. Here we describe developments to the model JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) represent distinct processes which interact with simulated dynamics. We couple INFERNO (INteractive Fire Emission...
Abstract. This paper describes the rationale and protocol of first component third simulation round Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, www.isimip.org) associated set climate-related direct human forcing data (CRF DHF, respectively). The observation-based forcings for time include high-resolution observational climate derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, wind fields with historical tropical cyclones. DHFs land use patterns,...
Abstract. Global studies of climate change impacts that use future model projections also require land surface changes. Simulated performance in Earth system models is often affected by the atmospheric models' biases, leading to errors projections. Here we run Joint UK Land Environment Simulator System configuration (JULES-ES) with Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project second-phase (ISIMIP2b) bias-corrected data from four global (GCMs). The bias correction reduces impact biases...
Abstract Unprecedented fire events in recent years are leading to a demand for improved understanding of how climate change is already affecting fires, and this could the future. Increased activity South America one most concerning all events, given potential impacts on local ecosystems global from loss large carbon stores under future socio‐environmental change. However, due complexity interactions feedbacks, lack complete representation biogeochemistry many models, there currently low...
El Niño years are characterised by a high sea surface temperature anomaly in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, which leads to unusually warm and dry conditions over many fire-prone regions globally. This can lead an increase burned area emissions from fire activity, socio-economic environmental losses. Previous studies using satellite observations assess impacts of recent 2015/16 found some compared La Niña years. Here, we use dynamic land model JULES how differed as result comparing simulations...
Abstract The terrestrial biosphere shows substantial inertia in its response to environmental change. Hence, assessments of transient changes ecosystem properties 2100 do not capture the full magnitude realized once ecosystems reach an effective equilibrium with changed boundary conditions. This state can be termed committed , contrast a which is disequilibrium. difference between and states represents change yet realized. Here ensemble dynamic global vegetation model simulations was used...
Abstract. The sudden increase in Amazon fires early the 2019 fire season made global headlines. While it has been heavily speculated that were caused by deliberate human ignitions or human-induced landscape changes, there have also suggestions meteorological conditions could played a role. Here, we ask two questions: unprecedented historical record, and did contribute to increased burning? To answer this, take advantage of recently developed modelling framework which optimises simple model...
Abstract. Our previous studies have shown that fire weather conditions in the Mediterranean and specifically over Greece are expected to become more severe with climate change, impling potential increases burnt area. Here, we employ Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) coupled INFERNO model driven by future projections from UKESM1 investigate repercussions of change vegetation changes on area Greece. We validate modelled against satellite-derived GFED5 dataset, find model’s...
Abstract The UK experienced an unprecedented heatwave in 2022, with temperatures reaching 40 °C for the first time recorded history. This extreme heat was accompanied by widespread fires across London and elsewhere England, which destroyed houses prompted evacuations. While attribution studies have identified a strong human fingerprint contributing to heatwave, no attributed associated anthropogenic influence. In this study, we assess contribution of human-induced climate change fire weather...
The Brazilian Pantanal, renowned for its rich ecosystems and biodiversity, is under increasing threat from more frequent intense fires. These wildfires endanger the region's ecology, wildlife, critical role as a carbon sink. catastrophic fires of 2020, which burned approximately 4 million hectares, highlighted pressing need to better understand Pantanal’s fire vulnerability develop effective strategies protecting storage capacity.Using FLAME model, we evaluated susceptibility in...
The 2023/24 fire season was marked by record-breaking burnt areas and carbon emissions in Canada, deadly blazes Hawaii, extreme drought smoke the Amazon, burning Pantanal wetlands, Europe's largest wildfire on record.  These events exemplify wildfires' growing prevalence far-reaching impacts societies, ecosystems, global climate systems. Each year, emergence of such raises urgent questions from policymakers, management agencies, public:  How much to blame?   Was it...
Wildfires have a significant influence on the Earth system through perturbing carbon cycle and also emitting large quantities of short lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as aerosol precursors (black organic carbon) gases that can lead to ozone formation (carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides). SLCFs are important they affect Earth’s radiative balance, influencing climate, impacts air quality in near-surface atmosphere. Climate change human interference effects size, magnitude duration...
Abstract. Understanding future shifts in fire weather risk, including peak season, transitional and off-season, will be crucial for reshaping preparation management order to adapt climate change. This study explores climate-driven projections of using the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) across three Global Warming Levels (GWLs) with two emissions scenarios – 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C under both RCP2.6 RCP8.5, 4.0 RCP8.5. Using a large, perturbed physics ensemble, we assess uncertainty globally...
Land management and deforestation in tropical regions cause wildfires forest degradation, leading to a loss of ecosystem services global climate regulation. The objective the study was provide comprehensive assessment spatial extent patterns burned areas new frontier Amazonas state. methodology applied cross-referenced area data from 2003 2019 with climate, land cover, private properties Protected Areas information performed series statistical tests. influence Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI)...
Abstract Idealized climate change simulations with a new physical model, HadGEM3‐GC2 from The Met Office Hadley Centre are presented and contrasted the earlier MOHC HadGEM2‐ES. role of atmospheric resolution is also investigated. Transient Climate Response (TCR) 1.9 K/2.1 K at N216/N96 Effective Sensitivity (ECS) 3.1 K/3.2 N216/N96. These substantially lower than HadGEM2‐ES (TCR: 2.5 K; ECS: 4.6 K) arising combination changes in size feedbacks. While net cloud feedback between HadGEM3...
<title>Abstract</title> Fires are now raging longer and more intensely in many regions worldwide. However, non-linear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management, ignitions so far impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here we show that climate change is increasingly explaining regional patterns, using an ensemble models. Climate has increased by 16% for the period 2003–2019, raised probability experiencing months with above-average 43%. change-induced...
Abstract The determinants of fire-driven changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) across broad environmental gradients remains unclear, especially global drylands. Here we combined datasets and field sampling fire-manipulation experiments to evaluate where why fire SOC compared our statistical model simulations from ecosystem models. Drier ecosystems experienced larger relative than humid ecosystems—in some cases exceeding losses plant biomass pools—primarily explained by high declines tree...