A5065514107- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Climate change and permafrost
- Health and Medical Studies
- Clinical practice guidelines implementation
- Forest ecology and management
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Radiomics and Machine Learning in Medical Imaging
- Cardiac Ischemia and Reperfusion
- Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
- Sports Science and Education
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
2015-2024
Leibniz Association
2018-2024
Technical University of Munich
2023
Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care
2007-2022
Technische Universität Dresden
2005-2021
Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut
2017-2021
Sanofi (Germany)
2020
Freie Universität Berlin
2016
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
2015
Humboldt State University
2014
Abstract. In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of Parties (COP) to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited Intergovernmental Panel (IPCC) provide a special report in 2018 impacts global warming 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related greenhouse gas emission pathways. Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, IPCC panel accepted invitation. Here we describe response devised within Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) tailored,...
Abstract. In this paper I present new methods for bias adjustment and statistical downscaling that are tailored to the requirements of Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). comparison their predecessors, allow a more robust extreme values, preserve trends accurately across quantiles, facilitate clearer separation downscaling. The method is stochastic better at adjusting spatial variability than old interpolation method. Improvements in trend preservation demonstrated...
Abstract. The WFDE5 dataset has been generated using the WATCH Forcing Data (WFD) methodology applied to surface meteorological variables from ERA5 reanalysis. WFDEI had previously by applying WFD ERA-Interim. is provided at 0.5∘ spatial resolution but higher temporal (hourly) compared (3-hourly). It also variability since it was aggregation of higher-resolution rather than interpolation lower-resolution ERA-Interim data. Evaluation against observations 13 globally distributed FLUXNET2015...
Young generations are severely threatened by climate change
Abstract. This paper describes the rationale and protocol of first component third simulation round Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) associated set climate-related direct human forcing data (CRF DHF, respectively). The observation-based forcings for time include high-resolution observational climate derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, wind fields with historical tropical...
Abstract The extent and impact of climate‐related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well human factors such land use population density. Here we quantify pure effect historical future climate change exposure to using an unprecedentedly large ensemble harmonized simulations from Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both area annually...
Abstract Systematic biases in climate models hamper their direct use impact studies and, as a consequence, many statistical bias adjustment methods have been developed to calibrate model outputs against observations. The application of these change context is problematic since there no clear understanding on how may affect key magnitudes, for example, the signal or trend, under different sources uncertainty. Two relevant uncertainty, often overlooked, are sensitivity observational reference...
Abstract. Many meteorological forcing datasets include bias-corrected surface downwelling longwave and shortwave radiation (rlds rsds). Methods used for such bias corrections range from multi-year monthly mean value scaling to quantile mapping at the daily timescale. An additional downscaling is necessary if data be corrected have a higher spatial resolution than observational determine biases. This was case when EartH2Observe (Calton et al., 2016) rlds rsds were using more coarsely resolved...
Abstract. Bias adjustment is often a necessity in estimating climate impacts because impact models usually rely on unbiased information, requirement that model outputs rarely fulfil. Most currently used statistical bias-adjustment methods adjust each variable separately, even though depend multiple potentially dependent variables. Human heat stress, for instance, depends temperature and relative humidity, two variables are strongly correlated. Whether univariate effectively improve estimates...
Abstract. Attribution in its general definition aims to quantify drivers of change a system. According IPCC Working Group II (WGII) natural, human or managed system is attributed climate by quantifying the difference between observed state and counterfactual baseline that characterizes system's behavior absence change, where “climate refers any long-term trend climate, irrespective cause” (IPCC, 2014). Impact attribution following this remains challenge because baseline, which hypothetical...
Abstract. The WFDE5 dataset (C3S, 2020) has been generated using the WATCH Forcing Data (WFD) methodology applied to surface meteorological variables from ERA5 reanalysis. WFDEI had previously by applying WFD ERA-Interim. is provided at 0.5° spatial resolution, but higher temporal resolution (hourly) compared (3-hourly). It also variability since it was aggregation of higher-resolution rather than interpolation lower ERA-Interim data. Evaluation against observations 13 globally distributed...
Abstract. This paper describes the rationale and protocol of first component third simulation round Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, www.isimip.org) associated set climate-related direct human forcing data (CRF DHF, respectively). The observation-based forcings for time include high-resolution observational climate derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, wind fields with historical tropical cyclones. DHFs land use patterns,...
Abstract. Current changes in the world's climate increasingly impact a wide variety of sectors globally, from agriculture and ecosystems to water energy supply or human health. Many impacts on these happen at high spatio-temporal resolutions that are not covered by current global datasets. Here we present CHELSA-W5E5 (https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.836809.3, Karger et al., 2022): forcing dataset daily temporal resolution 30 arcsec spatial for air temperatures, precipitation rates,...
Abstract Projections of precipitation extremes over land are crucial for socioeconomic risk assessments, yet model discrepancies limit their application. Here we use a pattern-filtering technique to identify low-frequency changes in individual members multimodel ensemble assess across models the projected pattern and magnitude change. Specifically, apply component analysis (LFCA) intensity frequency daily 21 CMIP-6 models. LFCA brings modest but statistically significant improvements...
Abstract. Since 1950, European rivers have been put under increasing pressure by anthropogenic activities, resulting in changes climate, land cover, soil properties and channel morphologies. These evolving environmental conditions can translate into hydrological conditions. The availability of consistent estimates river flow at global continental level is a necessity to assess attribute the cycle. To overcome limitations posed observations (incomplete records, inhomogeneous spatial...
Abstract. In this paper I present new methods for bias adjustment and statistical downscaling that are tailored to the requirements of Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). comparison their predecessors, allow a more robust extreme values, preserve trends accurately across quantiles, facilitate clearer separation downscaling. The method is stochastic better at adjusting spatial variability than old interpolation method. Improvements in trend preservation demonstrated...
Significance Under climate change, a point on map needs to move in some speed and direction maintain its current niche. We calculated the speeds directions of aridity shifts across globe approximate species migration natural–human systems driven by changes water availability. found historically that had vegetation greenness isolines multiple regions. Most importantly, global drying would be accelerated for terrestrial taxa without mitigation. This leave unable adapt quickly enough,...
Abstract. Process-based vegetation models are widely used to predict local and global ecosystem dynamics climate change impacts. Due their complexity, they require careful parameterization evaluation ensure that projections accurate reliable. The PROFOUND Database (PROFOUND DB) provides a wide range of empirical data on European forests calibrate evaluate simulate impacts at the forest stand scale. A particular advantage this database is its coverage multiple sources different hierarchical...
Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, particular, no such assessments exist Germany, most populated country Europe. We assess 12 major German cities based on daily time-series all-cause and temperatures period 1993–2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models two-stage design. Resulting risk...
Despite considerable progress made over the past 20 years in reducing global burden of malaria, disease remains a major public health problem and there is concern that climate change might expand suitable areas for transmission. This study investigated relative effect variability on malaria incidence after scale-up interventions western Kenya.Bayesian negative binomial models were fitted to monthly data, extracted from records patients with febrile illnesses visiting Lwak Mission Hospital...
Abstract The accurate representation of precipitation in Earth system models (ESMs) is crucial for reliable projections the ecological and socioeconomic impacts response to anthropogenic global warming. complex cross‐scale interactions processes that produce are challenging model, however, inducing potentially strong biases ESM fields, especially regarding extremes. State‐of‐the‐art bias correction methods only address errors simulated frequency distributions locally at every individual grid...
<h3>Background:</h3> In recent years percutaneous, transcatheter closure of atrial septal defects (ASD) or patent foramen ovale (PFO) was introduced into clinical practice. <h3>Objective:</h3> To investigate the functional effects on heart valves caused by an interatrial device. <h3>Methods and results:</h3> Between 2001 2006, 240 consecutive patients underwent percutaneous ASD a PFO. Heart valve functions were defined transoesophageal echocardiography before implantation 3, 6 12 months...