A5030740782- Climate variability and models
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Crop Yield and Soil Fertility
- Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Soil and Land Suitability Analysis
- Plant responses to elevated CO2
- Rice Cultivation and Yield Improvement
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Agricultural Innovations and Practices
- Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics
- Water resources management and optimization
- Agricultural risk and resilience
- Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Greenhouse Technology and Climate Control
- Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Agronomic Practices and Intercropping Systems
- Remote Sensing in Agriculture
- Rangeland Management and Livestock Ecology
- Agricultural Economics and Policy
- Climate change and permafrost
University of Basel
2024-2025
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
2014-2023
Aalto University
2023
New York University
2023
Stockholm University
2023
Wageningen University & Research
2023
LMU Klinikum
2022
Kiel Institute for the World Economy
2021
Abstract With rising demand for biomass, cropland expansion and intensification represent the main strategies to boost agricultural production, but are also major drivers of biodiversity decline. We investigate consequences attaining equal global production gains by 2030, either or intensification, analyse their impacts on markets biodiversity. find that both scenarios lead lower crop prices across world, even in regions where decreases. Cropland mostly affects hotspots Central South...
Changing natural conditions determine the land's suitability for agriculture. The growing demand food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land causes trade-offs between different uses of ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required changing potentially suitable areas agriculture under climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural grow 16 most important food energy crops according climatic, soil topographic at spatial resolution...
Abstract Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today’s cropland alone insufficient satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management better technology knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) farm increased cropping intensity more annual harvests where feasible (2) an economically efficient spatial allocation of which maximizes...
<strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> Agriculture is the largest global consumer of water. Irrigated areas constitute 40 % total area used for agricultural production (FAO, 2014a) Information on their spatial distribution highly relevant regional water management and food security. Spatial information irrigation important policy decision makers, who are facing transition towards more efficient sustainable agriculture. However, mapping irrigated still represents...
Abstract Climate change affects global agricultural production and threatens food security. Faster phenological development of crops due to climate warming is one the main drivers for potential future yield reductions. To counter effect faster maturity, adapted varieties would require more heat units regain previous growing period length. In this study, we investigate effects variety adaptation on caloric under four different scenarios maize, rice, soybean, wheat. Thereby, empirically...
Potential trade-offs between providing sufficient food for a growing human population in the future and sustaining ecosystems their services are driven by various biophysical socio-economic parameters at different scales. In this study, we investigate these using three-step interdisciplinary approach. We examine (1) how expected global cropland expansion might affect security terms of agricultural production prices, (2) where natural conditions suitable under changing climate conditions, (3)...
A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 °C precipitation 8%, for at least y. Here we evaluate impacts food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, soybean falls 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, 17 (±2)% over Total...
Abstract Concerns over climate change are motivated in large part because of their impact on human society. Assessing the effect that uncertainty specific potential impacts is demanding, since it requires a systematic survey both and models. We provide comprehensive evaluation projected crop yields for maize, spring winter wheat, rice, soybean, using suite nine models up to 45 CMIP5 34 CMIP6 projections three different forcing scenarios. To make this task computationally tractable, we use...
Abstract. Concerns about food security under climate change motivate efforts to better understand future changes in crop yields. Process-based models, which represent plant physiological and soil processes, are necessary tools for this purpose since they allow representing management conditions not sampled the historical record new locations cultivation may shift. However, process-based models differ many critical details, their responses different interacting factors remain only poorly...
Land-use and land-cover changes (LULCCs) contributed around one third to the cumulative, anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1850 2019. Despite its great importance, estimates of net fluxes LULCC (ELUC) have high uncertainties, compared other components global carbon cycle. One major source uncertainty roots in underlying forcing data. In this study, we implemented a new high-resolution dataset (HILDA+) bookkeeping model (BLUE) results simulations based on LUH2, which is most commonly used...
Abstract Crop models are often used to project future crop yield under climate and global change typically show a broad range of outcomes. To understand differences in modeled responses, we analyzed response types using impact surfaces along four drivers yield: carbon dioxide (C), temperature (T), water (W), nitrogen (N). help simulated responses per driver their combinations rather than aggregated changes yields as the result simultaneous various drivers. We find that models' sensitivities...
Abstract Increasing temperature trends are expected to impact yields of major field crops by affecting various plant processes, such as phenology, growth, and evapotranspiration. However, future projections typically do not consider the effects agronomic adaptation in farming practices. We use an ensemble seven Global Gridded Crop Models quantify impacts potential under increasing up 6 K, accounting for model uncertainty. find that without adaptation, dominant effect increase is shorten...
The pace of change in land use and cover Ethiopia depends on three main factors that cause pressure agriculture land: resettlement programmes, population growth increasing agricultural investments. Gambella is one the regions attracts large-scale investments extensively drive changes region. aim this study to examine rate, extent distribution various Regional State, Ethiopia, from 1987 2017. analysis mainly based Landsat 5 Sentinel 2A satellite images fieldwork. Two Thematic Mapper a image...
The superior agronomic and human nutritional properties of grain legumes (pulses) make them an ideal foundation for future sustainable agriculture. Legume-based farming is particularly important in Africa, where small-scale agricultural systems dominate the food production landscape. Legumes provide inexpensive source protein nutrients to African households as well natural fertilization soil. Although consumption traditionally grown has started decline, soybeans (Glycine max Merr.) spreading...
Abstract Changing climate conditions are supposed to have particularly strong impacts on agricultural production in the tropics with implications food security. Ethiopia’s economy is profoundly dominated by agriculture, contributing around 40% of gross domestic product. Thereby, Ethiopia one most vulnerable countries impact change and has a wide gap regional studies. In this study, we systematically investigate yields for Gambella region Ethiopia, exemplarily maize. Here, show how until 2100...
Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global "breadbaskets." A major unresolved question whether these peak regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some recovery of potential climate-related losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment allows us assess changes both yields and location productivity under warming. We examine crop...
Abstract. Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects future climate changes on yields. We describe here development emulators nine five crops using output from Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2. The GGCMI 2 experiment is designed with explicit goal producing a structured training dataset emulator that samples across four dimensions relevant to yields: atmospheric carbon...
Climate change can significantly impact agriculture, leading to food security challenges. Most previous studies have investigated the direct climate on crops while neglecting of heat stress agricultural labor. Here, we assess economic consequences impacts four major crops—maize, soybean, wheat, and rice—for scenarios involving low high greenhouse gas emissions. Our analysis is based output from a new generation global crop models drive multiregional model. We find that, even under...
<title>Abstract</title> As the world's largest grain producer, China faces substantial challenges from weather and climate extremes, threatening domestic global food security. Earlier studies focused narrowly on a single crop type, extreme event or small region. This study provides first comprehensive analysis of heatwaves, drought, cold, rainfall wheat, maize, rice yields in 1970 to 2019. We find these extremes reduce by 3.3, 7.3, 1.9, 3.0%, respectively, amounting 33.5, 66.6, 18.0, 29.3%...
Abstract. Increasing demand for agricultural land resources and changing climate conditions require strategic land-use planning the development of adaptation strategies. Therefore, information about suitability is a prerequisite. Current approaches often focus on single crops, can only be applied regionally, usually neglect impact variability crop suitability. Here, we introduce CropSuite, new, comprehensive, easy-to-use model that allows us to overcome these shortcomings. It provides...
Abstract Bioenergy is expected to play a critical role in climate change mitigation. Most integrated assessment models assume an expansion of agricultural land for cultivation energy crops. This study examines the suitability growing range crops on areas that are not required food production, accounting impacts and conservation requirements. A global fuzzy logic model employed ascertain suitable cropping number sugar, starch oil crops, grasses short rotation tree species could be grown...
The pressure on land resources continuously increases not only with the rising demand for agricultural commodities, but also growing need action global challenges, such as biodiversity loss or climate change, where plays a crucial role. Land saving strategy, productivity is increased to allow reduction of required cropland while sustaining production volumes and meeting demand, could address this trade-off. With our interdisciplinary model-based study, we globally assess regional potentials...