A5084553326- Impact of AI and Big Data on Business and Society
- Regional Socio-Economic Development Trends
- COVID-19, Geopolitics, Technology, Migration
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- SARS-CoV-2 detection and testing
- COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Radiation Therapy and Dosimetry
- Travel-related health issues
- Biosensors and Analytical Detection
- Cancer Genomics and Diagnostics
- Energy Load and Power Forecasting
- COVID-19 Digital Contact Tracing
- COVID-19 and Mental Health
- Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Misinformation and Its Impacts
- Sport and Mega-Event Impacts
- Animal Virus Infections Studies
Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization
2020-2024
University of Göttingen
2024
Johns Hopkins University
2023
Leipzig University
2020
Without a cure, vaccine, or proven long-term immunity against SARS-CoV-2, test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) strategies present promising tool to contain its spread. For any TTI strategy, however, mitigation is challenged by pre- and asymptomatic transmission, TTI-avoiders, undetected spreaders, who strongly contribute hidden infection chains. Here, we studied semi-analytical model identified two tipping points between controlled uncontrolled spread: (1) the behavior-driven reproduction number of...
Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields recent insights epidemiology, one maximise the predictive performance such if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report ensembles predicting COVID-19 cases deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 07 2022.
Mass vaccination offers a promising exit strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as progresses, demands to lift restrictions increase, despite most of population remaining susceptible. Using our age-stratified SEIRD-ICU compartmental model and curated epidemiological data, we quantified rate (relative progress) at which countries can non-pharmaceutical interventions without overwhelming their healthcare systems. We analyzed scenarios ranging from immediately lifting (accepting high...
Pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been crucial for controlling COVID-19. They are complemented by voluntary health-protective behavior, building a complex interplay between risk perception, disease spread. We studied how behavior vaccination willingness impact the long-term dynamics. analyzed different levels of mandatory NPIs determine individuals use their leeway actions. If too weak, COVID-19 incidence will surge, implying high morbidity mortality before...
Abstract Genomic surveillance (GS) programmes were crucial in identifying and quantifying the mutating patterns of SARS-CoV-2 during COVID-19 pandemic. In this work, we develop a Bayesian framework to quantify relative transmissibility different variants tailored for regions with limited GS. We use it study Chile. Among 3443 genomes collected between January June 2021, where sampling was designed be representative, Gamma (P.1), Lambda (C.37), Alpha (B.1.1.7), B.1.1.348, B.1.1 lineages...
Test-trace-and-isolate and moderate contact restrictions offer sustainable exit strategies complementary to vaccination.
Abstract Large-scale events like the UEFA Euro 2020 football (soccer) championship offer a unique opportunity to quantify impact of gatherings on spread COVID-19, as number and dates matches played by participating countries resembles randomized study. Using Bayesian modeling gender imbalance in COVID-19 data, we attribute 840,000 (95% CI: [0.39M, 1.26M]) cases across 12 championship. The depends non-linearly initial incidence, reproduction R , played. strongest effects are seen Scotland...
Abstract Background Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields recent insights epidemiology, one maximise the predictive performance such if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here we report ensembles predicting COVID-19 cases deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 07 2022. Methods We used open-source tools develop a public European Forecast Hub. invited groups...
Abstract The traditional long-term solutions for epidemic control involve eradication or population immunity. Here, we analytically derive the existence of a third viable solution: stable equilibrium at low case numbers, where test-trace-and-isolate policies partially compensate local spreading events, and only moderate restrictions remain necessary. In this equilibrium, daily cases stabilize around ten new infections per million people less. However, stability is endangered if are relaxed...
Here, we provide detailed background information for our work on Bayesian inference of change-points in the spread SARS-CoV-2 and effectiveness non-pharmaceutical interventions (Dehning et al., Science, 2020). We outline general SIR-like models. explain assumptions that underlie model-based estimates reproduction number compare them to model-free estimates, such as used Robert-Koch Institute situation reports. highlight effects originate from two estimation approaches, how they may cause...
The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants concern endangers the long-term control COVID-19, especially in countries with limited genomic surveillance. In this work, we explored drivers contagion Chile. We sequenced 3443 genomes collected between January and July 2021, where Gamma (P.1), Lambda (C.37), Alpha (B.1.1.7), B.1.1.348, B.1.1 lineages were predominant. Using a Bayesian model tailored for surveillance, found that variants' reproduction numbers about 5% 16% larger than Alpha's,...
A second wave of SARS-CoV-2 is unfolding in dozens countries. However, this manifests itself strongly new reported cases, but less death counts compared to the first wave. Over past three months Germany, cases increased by a factor five or more, whereas hardly grew. This discrepancy fueled speculations that rise would not reflect only wider testing. We find apparent can be explained large extent age structure infected, and predict pronounced increase near future, as spread once again expands...
With winter coming in the northern hemisphere, disadvantageous seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 requires high immunity levels population or increasing non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), compared to summer. Otherwise intensive care units (ICUs) might fill up. However, compliance with mandatory NPIs, vaccine uptake, and individual protective measures depend on individuals' opinions behavior. Opinions, turn, information, e.g., about safety current infection levels. Therefore, understanding how...