Turgay Ayer

ORCID: 0000-0001-8720-0280
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About
Contact & Profiles
Research Areas
  • Liver Disease Diagnosis and Treatment
  • Hepatitis C virus research
  • Lymphoma Diagnosis and Treatment
  • Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life
  • COVID-19 epidemiological studies
  • Healthcare Policy and Management
  • Economic and Financial Impacts of Cancer
  • Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
  • Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treatment and Prognosis
  • Colorectal Cancer Treatments and Studies
  • Pharmaceutical Economics and Policy
  • Hepatitis B Virus Studies
  • Liver Disease and Transplantation
  • Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
  • Blood donation and transfusion practices
  • Emergency and Acute Care Studies
  • Supply Chain and Inventory Management
  • Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
  • Viral-associated cancers and disorders
  • Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials
  • Colorectal Cancer Screening and Detection
  • Alcohol Consumption and Health Effects
  • Advanced Queuing Theory Analysis
  • AI in cancer detection
  • Blood Pressure and Hypertension Studies

Georgia Institute of Technology
2016-2025

Emory University
2015-2024

Harvard University
2016-2023

Massachusetts General Hospital
2016-2023

Emory and Henry College
2022-2023

University of Michigan–Ann Arbor
2017-2022

The University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center
2022

Exact Sciences (United States)
2022

Systems Analytics (United States)
2022

Huntsman Cancer Institute
2022

<h3>Importance</h3> Periodic and rhythmic electroencephalographic patterns have been associated with risk of seizures in critically ill patients. However, specific features that confer higher seizure remain unclear. <h3>Objective</h3> To analyze the association distinct characteristics periodic seizures. <h3>Design, Setting, Participants</h3> We reviewed recordings from 4772 adults 3 academic medical centers February 2013 to September 2015 performed a multivariate analysis determine...

10.1001/jamaneurol.2016.4990 article EN JAMA Neurology 2016-12-20

Breast cancer is the most common nonskin and second leading cause of death in U.S. women. Although mammography effective modality for breast screening, it has several potential risks, including high false-positive rates. Therefore, balance benefits which depend on personal characteristics, critical designing a screening schedule. In contrast to prior research existing guidelines that consider population-based recommendations, we propose personalized policy based history risk characteristics...

10.1287/opre.1110.1019 article EN Operations Research 2012-06-13

Computer models in medical diagnosis are being developed to help physicians differentiate between healthy patients and with disease. These can aid successful decision making by allowing calculation of disease likelihood on the basis known patient characteristics clinical test results. Two most frequently used computer risk estimation logistic regression an artificial neural network. A study was conducted review compare these two models, elucidate advantages disadvantages each, provide...

10.1148/rg.301095057 article EN Radiographics 2009-11-10

Purpose Oral targeted therapies represent a significant advance for the treatment of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL); however, their high cost has raised concerns about affordability and economic impact on society. Our objective was to project future prevalence burden CLL in era oral United States. Methods We developed simulation model that evaluated evolving management from 2011 2025: chemoimmunotherapy (CIT) as standard care before 2014, del(17p) relapsed first-line 2016...

10.1200/jco.2016.68.2856 article EN Journal of Clinical Oncology 2017-01-10

The prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in U.S. prisoners is high; however, HCV testing and treatment are rare. Infected inmates released back into society contribute to the spread general population. Routine screening followed by new therapies may reduce ongoing transmission.To evaluate health economic effect prisons on epidemic society.Agent-based microsimulation model transmission progression disease.Published literature.Population community.30 years.Societal.Risk-based universal...

10.7326/m15-0617 article EN Annals of Internal Medicine 2015-11-23

The addition of bevacizumab to fluorouracil-based chemotherapy is a standard care for previously untreated metastatic colorectal cancer. Continuation beyond progression an accepted based on 1.4-month increase in median overall survival observed randomized trial. No United States-based cost-effectiveness modeling analyses are currently available addressing the use Our objective was determine cost effectiveness first-line setting and when continued from perspective US payers.

10.1200/jco.2014.58.4904 article EN Journal of Clinical Oncology 2015-02-18

Oral direct‐acting antivirals (DAAs) represent a major advance in hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment. Along with recent updates HCV screening policy and expansions insurance coverage, treatment demand the United States is changing rapidly. Our objective was to project characteristics number of people needing antiviral HCV‐associated disease burden era oral DAAs. We used previously developed validated Hepatitis Disease Burden Simulation model (HEP‐SIM). HEP‐SIM simulated actual clinical...

10.1002/hep.28571 article EN Hepatology 2016-03-25

BackgroundAlcohol-related liver disease is the leading indication for transplantation in USA. After remaining stable over three decades, number of deaths due to alcohol-related has been increasing as a result increased high-risk drinking. We aimed project trends cirrhosis and USA up 2040 assess effect potential changes alcohol consumption on those trends.MethodsIn this modelling study, we developed multicohort state-transition (Markov) model drinking patterns populations born 1900–2016...

10.1016/s2468-2667(20)30062-1 article EN cc-by The Lancet Public Health 2020-06-01

Abstract BACKGROUND: Discriminating malignant breast lesions from benign ones and accurately predicting the risk of cancer for individual patients are crucial to successful clinical decisions. In past, several artificial neural network (ANN) models have been developed cancer‐risk prediction. All studies reported discrimination performance, but not one has assessed calibration, which is an equivalently important measure accurate this study, authors evaluated whether trained on a large...

10.1002/cncr.25081 article EN Cancer 2010-04-27

Alcohol consumption increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 United States. We projected effect of alcohol on alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) and mortality.

10.1002/hep.32272 article EN Hepatology 2021-12-08

The availability of oral direct‐acting antivirals has altered the hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment paradigm for both pre–liver transplant (LT) and post‐LT patients. There is a perceived trade‐off between pre‐LT versus HCV—treatment may improve liver function but potentially decrease likelihood necessary LT. Our objective was to identify LT‐eligible patients with decompensated cirrhosis who would benefit (and not benefit) from based on their Model End‐Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores. We...

10.1002/hep.28926 article EN publisher-specific-oa Hepatology 2016-11-05

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists decision makers alike. In United States, coordinated by large group of universities, companies, government entities led Centers Disease Control Prevention US Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts weekly state-level cases predictions 1–4 weeks into future submitted 24 teams from August 2020 December 2021. assessed coverage...

10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011200 article EN public-domain PLoS Computational Biology 2024-05-06

Regorafenib is a standard-care option for treatment-refractory metastatic colorectal cancer that increases median overall survival by 6 weeks compared with placebo. Given this small incremental clinical benefit, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of regorafenib in third-line setting patients from US payer perspective.We developed Markov model to compare cost and effectiveness those placebo treatment cancer. Health outcomes were measured life-years quality-adjusted (QALYs). Drug costs based...

10.1200/jco.2015.61.9569 article EN Journal of Clinical Oncology 2015-08-25

Background & aims Availability of directly-acting antivirals (DAAs) has changed the treatment landscape hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. The high price DAAs restricted their use in several countries. However, some countries such as India, generic are available at much cheaper price. This study examined whether could be cost-saving and how long it would take for to become cost-saving/effective. Methods A previously-validated, mathematical model was adapted HCV-infected population India...

10.1371/journal.pone.0176503 article EN cc-by PLoS ONE 2017-05-17

Most major health institutions recommend women to undergo repeat mammography screening for early diagnosis of breast cancer, the leading cause cancer deaths among worldwide. Although proportion who ever had a mammogram is increasing, majority do not get mammograms. This paper analyzes role heterogeneity in women’s adherence on optimal recommendations. We develop dynamic modeling framework that considers imperfect and heterogeneous carefully calibrate our model solve it using real data....

10.1287/mnsc.2015.2180 article EN Management Science 2015-10-22

Under current guidelines, hepatitis C virus (HCV)‐positive livers are not transplanted into HCV‐negative recipients because of adverse posttransplant outcomes associated with allograft HCV infection. However, can now be cured post‐LT (liver transplant) using direct‐acting antivirals (DAAs) &gt;90% success; therefore, patients on the LT waiting list may benefit from accepting HCV‐positive organs preemptive treatment. Our objective was to evaluate whether and in which potential an (i.e.,...

10.1002/hep.29723 article EN publisher-specific-oa Hepatology 2017-12-09

Abstract The clinical risk stratification of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) relies on the International Prognostic Index (IPI) for identification high-risk disease. Recent studies suggest that immune microenvironment plays a role in treatment response prediction and survival DLBCL. This study developed model evaluated model’s biological implications association with estimated profiles infiltration. Gene-expression profiling 718 patients DLBCL was done, which RNA sequencing data...

10.1038/s41408-020-00404-0 article EN cc-by Blood Cancer Journal 2021-01-07

ABSTRACT Objective To compare continuous monitoring with a risk‐adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM) to standard episodic evaluation for the detection of hospitals higher‐than‐expected postoperative mortality after cardiac surgery. Study Setting and Design In this national, observational, hospital‐level study, number identified quarterly, 30‐day time identification were compared using (i.e., observed‐to‐expected [O–E] ratios) CUSUM. Data Sources Analytic Sample VA Surgical Quality Improvement...

10.1111/1475-6773.14607 article EN Health Services Research 2025-03-19

<h3>Importance</h3> The SQUIRE trial demonstrated that adding necitumumab to chemotherapy for patients with metastatic squamous cell lung cancer (mSqCLC) increased median overall survival by 1.6 months (hazard ratio, 0.84). However, the costs and value associated this intervention remains unclear. Value-based pricing links price of a drug benefit it provides is novel method establish prices new treatments. <h3>Objective</h3> To evaluate range which could be considered cost-effective....

10.1001/jamaoncol.2015.3316 article EN JAMA Oncology 2015-08-27

Objectives Oral direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for hepatitis C virus (HCV) have dramatically changed the treatment paradigm. Our aim was to project temporal trends in HCV diagnosis, and disease burden France, Germany, Italy, Spain UK. Design A mathematical simulation model of natural history infection. Participants HCV-infected patients defined based on country-specific age, fibrosis genotype distributions. Interventions screening practice availability different waves DAA each country....

10.1136/bmjopen-2018-026726 article EN cc-by-nc BMJ Open 2019-06-01

<h3>Importance</h3> Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a global health problem. The World Health Assembly recently pledged to eliminate HCV by 2030. However, in Pakistan, country with one of the highest prevalence rates, feasibility and cost elimination are not known. <h3>Objectives</h3> To investigate whether under what conditions feasible Pakistan estimate such elimination. <h3>Design, Setting, Participants</h3> This decision analytical model study used microsimulation epidemic...

10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2019.3613 article EN cc-by-nc-nd JAMA Network Open 2019-05-10

Health information exchanges (HIEs) are expected to improve poor coordination in emergency departments (EDs); however, whether and when HIEs associated with better operational outcomes remains poorly understood. In this work, we study HIE length of stay (LOS) relationship using a large dataset from the Healthcare Cost Utilization Project consisting about 7.4 million treat‐and‐release visits made 63 EDs Massachusetts. Overall, find that adoption is 10.2% reduction LOS percentage increases...

10.1111/poms.12953 article EN Production and Operations Management 2018-09-22

BACKGROUND. The volume of emergency department (ED) visits and the number neuroimaging examinations have increased since start century. Little is known about this growth in commercially insured Medicare Advantage populations. OBJECTIVE. purpose our study was to evaluate changing ED utilization from 2007 through 2017 both enrollees. METHODS. Using patient-level claims Optum's deidentified Clinformatics Data Mart database, which annually includes approximately 12-14 million commercial health...

10.2214/ajr.21.25864 article EN American Journal of Roentgenology 2021-08-04
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