Joshua Kaminsky
A5012864477- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Child Nutrition and Water Access
- Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis
- COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- Vibrio bacteria research studies
- Complex Systems and Decision Making
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- COVID-19 Impact on Reproduction
- Chemical Safety and Risk Management
- Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Simulation Techniques and Applications
- Complex Network Analysis Techniques
- Zoonotic diseases and public health
- Food Security and Health in Diverse Populations
- Cardiac, Anesthesia and Surgical Outcomes
- Airway Management and Intubation Techniques
- Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Cardiac Arrest and Resuscitation
- Viral gastroenteritis research and epidemiology
- Healthcare Policy and Management
Johns Hopkins University
2018-2024
Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy
2023
U.S. National Science Foundation
2021
Expedition (United Kingdom)
2021
University of Virginia
2021
Virginia Department of Health
2021
UPMC Hamot
2017
Abstract Machine learning is a branch of computer science that has the potential to transform epidemiologic sciences. Amid growing focus on “Big Data,” it offers epidemiologists new tools tackle problems for which classical methods are not well-suited. In order critically evaluate value integrating machine algorithms and existing methods, however, essential address language technical barriers between two fields can make difficult read assess studies. Here, we provide an overview concepts...
After a period of rapidly declining U.S. COVID-19 incidence during January-March 2021, increases occurred in several jurisdictions (1,2) despite the rapid rollout large-scale vaccination program. This increase coincided with spread more transmissible variants SARS-CoV-2, virus that causes COVID-19, including B.1.1.7 (1,3) and relaxation prevention strategies such as those for businesses, gatherings, educational activities. To provide long-term projections potential trends cases,...
Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify state critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams make months ahead SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a...
During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists decision makers alike. In United States, coordinated by large group of universities, companies, government entities led Centers Disease Control Prevention US Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts weekly state-level cases predictions 1–4 weeks into future submitted 24 teams from August 2020 December 2021. assessed coverage...
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused strain on health systems worldwide due to its high mortality rate and the large portion of cases requiring critical care mechanical ventilation. During these uncertain times, public decision makers, from city departments federal agencies, sought use epidemiological models for support in allocating resources, developing non-pharmaceutical interventions, characterizing dynamics COVID-19 their jurisdictions. In response, we developed a flexible...
In Spring 2021, the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant began to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths parts of United States. At time, with slowed vaccination uptake, this novel was expected increase risk pandemic resurgence US summer fall 2021. As part COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, an ensemble nine mechanistic models produced 6-month scenario projections for July-December 2021 These estimated substantial resurgences across resulting from more variant, projected...
The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened nine modeling teams to project the impact of expanding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination children aged 5-11 years on burden and resilience against variant strains.Teams contributed state- national-level weekly projections cases, hospitalizations, deaths in United States from September 12, 2021 March 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations 1) (or not) (starting November 1, 2021), 2) emergence a more transmissible than Delta (emerging 15, 2021)....
SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of persons aged 12 years and older has reduced disease burden in the United States. The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened multiple modeling teams September 2021 to project impact expanding vaccine administration children 5-11 old on anticipated resilience against variant strains.
The COVID-19 pandemic led to an unprecedented demand for projections of disease burden and healthcare utilization under scenarios ranging from unmitigated spread strict social distancing policies. In response, members the Johns Hopkins Infectious Disease Dynamics Group developed flepiMoP (formerly called COVID Scenario Modeling Pipeline), a comprehensive open-source software pipeline designed creating simulating compartmental models infectious transmission inferring parameters through these...
Background Cholera causes an estimated 100,000 deaths annually worldwide, with the majority of burden reported in sub-Saharan Africa. In May 2018, World Health Assembly committed to reducing worldwide cholera by 90% 2030. Oral vaccine (OCV) plays a key role near-term risk cholera, although global supplies are limited. Characterizing potential impact and cost-effectiveness mass OCV deployment strategies is critical for setting expectations developing control plans that maximize chances...
Abstract Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused strain on health systems worldwide due to its high mortality rate and the large portion of cases requiring critical care mechanical ventilation. During these uncertain times, public decision makers, from city departments federal agencies, sought use epidemiological models for support in allocating resources, developing non-pharmaceutical interventions, characterizing dynamics COVID-19 their jurisdictions. In response, we developed a...
Abstract Our ability to forecast epidemics more than a few weeks into the future is constrained by complexity of disease systems, our limited measure current state an epidemic, and uncertainties in how human action will affect transmission. Realistic longer-term projections (spanning weeks) may, however, be possible under defined scenarios that specify critical epidemic drivers, with additional benefit such can used anticipate comparative effect control measures. Since December 2020, U.S....
Health departments can be grouped together based on sociodemographic characteristics of the population served. Comparisons within these groups then help with monitoring and improving health their populations.To compare county-level percentile rankings outcomes smoking, motor vehicle crash deaths, obesity peer clusters vs nationwide rankings.This cross-sectional, population-based study demographic data from 2014 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System 2016 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation...
Simulation studies are often used to predict the expected impact of control measures in infectious disease outbreaks. Typically, two independent sets simulations conducted, one with intervention, and without, epidemic sizes (or some related metric) compared estimate effect intervention. Since it is possible that controlled epidemics larger than uncontrolled ones if there substantial stochastic variation between epidemics, uncertainty intervals from this approach can include a negative even...
Summary What is already known about this topic? The highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has begun to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths parts of the United States. With slowed vaccination uptake, novel expected increase risk pandemic resurgence US July—December 2021. added by report? Data from nine mechanistic models project substantial resurgences COVID-19 across resulting more variant. These resurgences, which have now been observed most states, were projected...
Abstract During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists decision makers alike. In United States, coordinated by large group of universities, companies, government entities led Centers Disease Control Prevention US Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts weekly state-level cases predictions 1-4 weeks into future submitted 24 teams from August 2020 December 2021. assessed...
Abstract Background In May 2018, the World Health Assembly committed to reducing worldwide cholera deaths by 90% 2030. Oral vaccine (OCV) plays a key role in near-term risk of cholera, although global supplies are limited. Characterizing potential impact and cost-effectiveness mass OCV deployment strategies is critical for setting expectations developing control plans that maximize chances success. Methods Findings We compared projected impacts vaccination campaigns across sub-Saharan Africa...
Abstract In Southeast Asia, endemic dengue follows strong spatio-temporal patterns with major epidemics occurring every 2-5 years. However, important variation in seasonal remains poorly understood. Using 13 years (2003-2015) of surveillance data from 926 districts Thailand and wavelet analysis, we show that rural lead urban within a season, both nationally health regions. local fade-outs are more likely areas than during the off suggesting not source viral dispersion. Simple dynamic models...
Abstract Simulation studies are often used to predict the expected impact of control measures in infectious disease outbreaks. Typically, two independent sets simulations conducted, one with intervetnion, and without, epidemic sizes (or some related metric) compared estimate effect intervention. Since it is possible that controlled epidemics larger than uncontrolled ones if there substantial stochastic variation between epidemics, uncertainty intervals from this approach can include a...