A5089006159- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Vibrio bacteria research studies
- SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Salmonella and Campylobacter epidemiology
- Escherichia coli research studies
- HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions
- COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- Global Maternal and Child Health
- Virology and Viral Diseases
- Healthcare Systems and Reforms
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- LGBTQ Health, Identity, and Policy
- Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting Issues
- Agricultural risk and resilience
- Urologic and reproductive health conditions
- Food Security and Health in Diverse Populations
- Sex work and related issues
- Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis
- Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology
- Genital Health and Disease
Johns Hopkins University
2021-2025
Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy
2023
U.S. National Science Foundation
2021
Expedition (United Kingdom)
2021
University of Virginia
2021
Virginia Department of Health
2021
Futures Group (United States)
2017-2020
After a period of rapidly declining U.S. COVID-19 incidence during January-March 2021, increases occurred in several jurisdictions (1,2) despite the rapid rollout large-scale vaccination program. This increase coincided with spread more transmissible variants SARS-CoV-2, virus that causes COVID-19, including B.1.1.7 (1,3) and relaxation prevention strategies such as those for businesses, gatherings, educational activities. To provide long-term projections potential trends cases,...
Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify state critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams make months ahead SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a...
BackgroundA global shortage of cholera vaccines has increased the use single-dose regimens, rather than standard two-dose regimen. There is sparse evidence on protection, particularly in children. In 2020, a mass vaccination campaign was conducted Uvira, an endemic urban setting eastern Democratic Republic Congo, resulting largely coverage. We examined effectiveness oral vaccine Euvichol-Plus this high-burden setting.MethodsIn matched case-control study, we recruited individuals with...
During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists decision makers alike. In United States, coordinated by large group of universities, companies, government entities led Centers Disease Control Prevention US Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts weekly state-level cases predictions 1–4 weeks into future submitted 24 teams from August 2020 December 2021. assessed coverage...
In Spring 2021, the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant began to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths parts of United States. At time, with slowed vaccination uptake, this novel was expected increase risk pandemic resurgence US summer fall 2021. As part COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, an ensemble nine mechanistic models produced 6-month scenario projections for July-December 2021 These estimated substantial resurgences across resulting from more variant, projected...
SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of persons aged 12 years and older has reduced disease burden in the United States. The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened multiple modeling teams September 2021 to project impact expanding vaccine administration children 5-11 old on anticipated resilience against variant strains.
BackgroundMaximizing the impact of limited global supply killed oral cholera vaccines (kOCVs) requires understanding barriers to achieving high population coverage during vaccination campaigns as well factors that may influence declines over time. In 2020, two rounds mass with Euvichol-Plus were conducted in Uvira The Democratic Republic Congo. We used data from three serial cross-sectional representative surveys between 11 and 33 months after to:(i) estimate post-vaccination campaign...
Systematic testing for Vibrio cholerae O1 is rare, which means that the world's limited supply of oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) may not be delivered to areas with highest true burden. Here we used a phenomenological model subnational geographic targeting and fine-scale vaccine effects how expanding V. affected impact cost-effectiveness preventive vaccination campaigns across different bacteriological confirmation assumptions in 35 African countries. followed by OCV based on confirmed yielded...
Background We conducted three serial cross-sectional representative surveys after a mass cholera vaccination campaign in Uvira, Democratic Republic of the Congo to (1) estimate coverage and explore heterogeneity by geographic demographic factors; (2) examine barriers facilitators vaccine uptake (3) describe changes over time predict future coverage. Methods collected data on sociodemographics, self-reported status, population movement knowledge, attitudes behaviours related killed oral...
Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) provision is a priority intervention for high HIV prevalence settings and populations at substantial risk of acquisition. This mathematical modelling analysis estimated the impact, cost cost-effectiveness scaling up oral PrEP in 13 countries.We projected impact between 2018 2030 using combination Incidence Patterns Model Goals model. We created four rollout scenarios involving three populations-female sex workers (FSWs), serodiscordant couples (SDCs)...
Engaging key populations, including gender and sexual minorities, is essential to meeting global targets for reducing new HIV infections improving the continuum of care. Negative attitudes toward minorities serve as a barrier political will effective programming health services. The President's Emergency Plan AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), established in 2003, provided Gender Sexual Diversity Trainings 2,825 participants PEPFAR staff program implementers, U.S. government staff, local stakeholders 38...
Our understanding of the burden and drivers cholera mortality is hampered by limited surveillance confirmation capacity. Leveraging enhanced clinical laboratory in cholera-endemic community Uvira, eastern Democratic Republic Congo, we describe deaths across 3 epidemics between September 2021 2023 following mass vaccination.
Abstract Our ability to forecast epidemics more than a few weeks into the future is constrained by complexity of disease systems, our limited measure current state an epidemic, and uncertainties in how human action will affect transmission. Realistic longer-term projections (spanning weeks) may, however, be possible under defined scenarios that specify critical epidemic drivers, with additional benefit such can used anticipate comparative effect control measures. Since December 2020, U.S....
Background The voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) program in Mozambique aimed to increase (MC) coverage 80 percent among males ages 10 49 by 2018. Given the difficulty attracting adult men over age 20 for circumcision, became interested assessing its age-targeting strategy and progress at provincial level inform planning. Methods We examined impact cost-effectiveness of circumcising different groups using Decision Makers' Program Planning Toolkit, Version 2.1 (DMPPT 2). also applied...
Summary What is already known about this topic? The highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has begun to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths parts of the United States. With slowed vaccination uptake, novel expected increase risk pandemic resurgence US July—December 2021. added by report? Data from nine mechanistic models project substantial resurgences COVID-19 across resulting more variant. These resurgences, which have now been observed most states, were projected...
Summary This article analyzes the role of government stewardship in expansion primary health care post‐conflict Guatemala. By time Peace Accords were signed 1996, country's system was scarcely functioning with virtually no services available rural indigenous areas. To address this gaping void/deficiency, Ministry Public Health and Social Assistance (MSPAS) embarked on a progressive aimed at covering majority poor. Through series legal, policy, program reforms up to 2014, MSPAS dramatically...
Abstract During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists decision makers alike. In United States, coordinated by large group of universities, companies, government entities led Centers Disease Control Prevention US Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts weekly state-level cases predictions 1-4 weeks into future submitted 24 teams from August 2020 December 2021. assessed...
Abstract In a representative serosurvey conducted March–June 2021, 64.1% (95%CrI 60.0– 68.1%) of Sitakunda subdistrict (Bangladesh) had anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies after adjusting for age, sex, household clustering and test performance. Before the surge Delta, most population been infected despite low incidence virologically-confirmed COVID-19.
Abstract Background Accurate and reliable diagnostics, including rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), are critical components of cholera control programs, though their performance has varied greatly across studies. While poorly understood, this variability may be due to the reference assay choice, patient-level and/or sampling characteristics, which hinder test result interpretation evaluation. Methods We enrolled all suspected cases seeking care at two healthcare facilities in Sitakunda,...
Abstract Background A global shortage of cholera vaccines has increased the use single-dose regimens, rather than standard two-dose regimen. There is limited evidence on protection, particularly in children. In 2020, a mass vaccination campaign resulting largely single dose coverage, was conducted Uvira, an endemic urban setting eastern Democratic Republic Congo. We examined effectiveness oral vaccine Euvichol-Plus ® this high-burden setting. Methods recruited medically attended confirmed...
Abstract Systematic testing for Vibrio cholerae O1 is rare, which means that the world’s limited supply of oral cholera vaccines may not be delivered to areas with highest true burden. We modeled how expanding V. affected vaccine impact and cost-effectiveness across different bacteriological confirmation targeting assumptions. yielded higher efficiency slightly fewer averted cases than status quo scenarios suspected cholera. With a 10 per 10,000 incidence rate threshold, 10.3 (95% PI:...