A5014048759- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
- Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Complex Network Analysis Techniques
- Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology
- Zoonotic diseases and public health
- COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Evolutionary Game Theory and Cooperation
- Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Viral Infections and Vectors
- Virology and Viral Diseases
- Mental Health Research Topics
- Reproductive tract infections research
- Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence
- Rabies epidemiology and control
- Malaria Research and Control
- COVID-19 Digital Contact Tracing
- Respiratory viral infections research
- Human Mobility and Location-Based Analysis
- Brucella: diagnosis, epidemiology, treatment
Institut Pierre Louis d‘Épidémiologie et de Santé Publique
2015-2024
Sorbonne Université
2014-2024
Inserm
2014-2024
University of Padua
2007-2024
Institut National de Recherche en Santé Publique
2018
Institute for Scientific Interchange
2009-2014
LaGrange College
2008-2009
Lagrange Laboratory
2008-2009
Petrobras (Brazil)
1997
After the emergence of H1N1 influenza in 2009, some countries responded with travel-related controls during early stage outbreak an attempt to contain or slow down its international spread. These along self-imposed travel limitations contributed a decline about 40% air traffic to/from Mexico following alert. However, no containment was achieved by such restrictions and virus able reach pandemic proportions short time. When gauging value efficacy mobility it is crucial rely on epidemic models...
Abstract Background On 11 June the World Health Organization officially raised phase of pandemic alert (with regard to new H1N1 influenza strain) level 6. As 19 July, 137,232 cases strain have been confirmed in 142 different countries, and unfolding Southern hemisphere is now under scrutiny gain insights about next winter wave Northern hemisphere. A major challenge pre-empted by need estimate transmission potential virus assess its dependence on seasonality aspects order be able use...
Abstract Background Mathematical and computational models for infectious diseases are increasingly used to support public-health decisions; however, their reliability is currently under debate. Real-time forecasts of epidemic spread using data-driven have been hindered by the technical challenges posed parameter estimation validation. Data gathered 2009 H1N1 influenza crisis represent an unprecedented opportunity validate real-time model predictions define main success criteria different...
The time variation of contacts in a networked system may fundamentally alter the properties spreading processes and affect condition for large-scale propagation, as encoded epidemic threshold. Despite great interest problem physics, applied mathematics, computer science, epidemiology communities, full theoretical understanding is still missing currently limited to cases where time-scale separation holds between network dynamics or specific temporal models. We consider Markov chain...
Abstract Spatiotemporal bias in genome sampling can severely confound discrete trait phylogeographic inference. This has impeded our ability to accurately track the spread of SARS-CoV-2, virus responsible for COVID-19 pandemic, despite availability unprecedented numbers SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Here, we present an approach integrate individual travel history data Bayesian inference and apply it early SARS-CoV-2. We demonstrate that including yields i) more realistic hypotheses ii) higher...
The quick spread of an Ebola outbreak in West Africa has led a number countries and airline companies to issue travel bans the affected areas. Considering data up 31 Aug 2014, we assess impact resulting traffic reductions with detailed numerical simulations international epidemic. Traffic are shown delay by only few weeks risk that extends new countries.
Chikungunya fever (CHIKV), a viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes, is currently affecting several areas in the Caribbean. The vector found Americas from southern Florida to Brazil, and Caribbean highly connected region terms of population movements. There therefore significant risk for epidemic quickly expand wide area Americas. Here, we describe spread CHIKV first three report cases between region. Local transmission very effective, mean number generated human case ranging two four....
School closure is often considered as an option to mitigate influenza epidemics because of its potential reduce transmission in children and then the community. The policy still however highly debated controversial evidence. Moreover, specific mechanisms leading mitigation are not clearly identified.We introduced a stochastic spatial age-specific metapopulation model assess role holiday-associated behavioral changes how they affect seasonal dynamics. applied Belgium, parameterized with...
As at 27 January 2020, 42 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases were confirmed outside China. We estimate the risk of case importation to Europe from affected areas in China via air travel. consider travel restrictions place, three reported France, one Germany. Estimated remains high. The United Kingdom, Germany and France are highest risk. Importation Beijing Shanghai would lead higher widespread for Europe.
Determining the pandemic potential of an emerging infectious disease and how it depends on various epidemic population aspects is critical for preparation adequate response aimed at its control. The complex interplay between movements in space non-homogeneous mixing patterns have so far hindered fundamental understanding conditions spatial invasion through a general theoretical framework. To address this issue, we present analytical modelling approach taking into account such under mobility...
Digital contact tracing apps could slow down COVID-19 transmission at moderate adoption: A model-based study.
The roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines is a multi-faceted challenge whose performance depends on pace vaccination, vaccine characteristics and heterogeneities in individual risks.
The influenza circulation reportedly declined during the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries. occurrence of this change has not been studied worldwide nor its potential drivers.The proportion positive samples reported by country and trimester was computed relative to 2014-2019 period using FluNet database. Random forests were used determine predictors from demographical, weather, preparedness, incidence, response characteristics. Regression trees classify observations according these...
Abstract Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute lower respiratory tract infection in young children and the second infant death worldwide. While global circulation has been extensively studied for viruses such as seasonal influenza, more recently also great detail SARS-CoV-2, lack multi-annual sampling complete RSV genomes limits our understanding molecular epidemiology. Here, we capitalise on genomic surveillance by INFORM-RSV study apply phylodynamic approaches to...
Abstract Background Confirmed H1N1 cases during late spring and summer 2009 in various countries showed a substantial age shift between importations local transmission cases, with adults mainly responsible for seeding unaffected regions children most frequently driving community outbreaks. Methods We introduce multi-host stochastic metapopulation model two classes to analytically investigate the role of heterogeneously mixing population its associated non-homogeneous travel behaviors on risk...
Understanding how epidemics spread in a system is crucial step to prevent and control outbreaks, with broad implications on the system's functioning, health, associated costs. This can be achieved by identifying elements at higher risk of infection implementing targeted surveillance measures. One important ingredient consider pattern disease-transmission contacts among elements, however lack data or delays providing updated records may hinder its use, especially for time-varying patterns....
The emergence of the novel Middle East (ME) respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has raised global public health concerns regarding current situation and its future evolution. Here we propose an integrative maximum likelihood analysis both cluster data in ME importations a set European countries to assess transmission scenario incidence sporadic infections. Our approach is based on spatial-transmission model integrating mobility worldwide allows for variations zoonotic/environmental...
Current understanding of the critical outbreak condition on temporal networks relies approximations (time scale separation, discretization) that may bias results. We propose a theoretical framework to compute epidemic threshold in continuous time through infection propagator approach. introduce {\em weak commutation} allowing interpretation annealed networks, activity-driven and separation into one formalism. Our work provides coherent connection between discrete representations applicable...
Several French regions where coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been reported currently show a renewed increase in ILI cases the general practice-based Sentinelles network. We computed number of excess by region from 24 February to 8 March 2020 and found correlation with COVID-19 so far. The data suggest larger circulation severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2) population than apparent confirmed cases.
Abstract With vaccination against COVID-19 stalled in some countries, increasing vaccine accessibility and distribution could help keep transmission under control. Here, we study the impact of reactive targeting schools workplaces where cases are detected, with an agent-based model accounting for natural history, characteristics, demographics, behavioural changes social distancing. In most scenarios, leads to a higher reduction compared non-reactive strategies using same number doses. The...
Abstract Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) regions were an important epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic SARS-CoV-2 evolution. Through Genomic Surveillance Regional Network (COVIGEN), LAC countries produced number genomic sequencing data that made possible enhanced surveillance capacity in Americas, paving way for characterization emerging variants helping to guide public health response. In this study we analyzed approximately 300,000 sequences generated between February 2020 March 2022 by...