A5087520236- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Infection Control and Ventilation
- Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
- Bacillus and Francisella bacterial research
- Infection Control in Healthcare
- Gene Regulatory Network Analysis
- T-cell and B-cell Immunology
- Advanced Queuing Theory Analysis
- Monoclonal and Polyclonal Antibodies Research
- Stochastic processes and statistical mechanics
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Immune Cell Function and Interaction
- Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Cytokine Signaling Pathways and Interactions
- Single-cell and spatial transcriptomics
- Bacteriophages and microbial interactions
- SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- SARS-CoV-2 detection and testing
- Noise Effects and Management
- Evolutionary Game Theory and Cooperation
- Simulation Techniques and Applications
- Probability and Risk Models
- Psoriasis: Treatment and Pathogenesis
University of Leeds
2015-2024
Los Alamos National Laboratory
2021
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
2011-2012
We consider stochastic models of individual infected cells. The reproduction number, R , is understood as a random variable representing the number new cells by one initial cell in an otherwise susceptible (target cell) population. Variability results partly from heterogeneity viral burst size (the progeny generated during its lifetime), which depends on distribution cellular lifetimes and mechanism virion release. analyse dynamics with eclipse phase: period time after but before it capable...
Interpreting viral mechanism of SARS-CoV-2 based on human body level is critical for developing more efficient interventions. Due to the limitation data, limited models consider dynamics early phase infection. The Human Challenge Study Killingley et al. (2022) enables us garner data from inoculation 14th day after infection, which provides an overview within host infection dynamics. In Study, each volunteer was inoculated with 10TCID50, approximately 55PFU, a wild type virus (Killingley...
Bacterial transmission from contaminated surfaces via hand contact plays a critical role in disease spread. However, the fomite-to-finger transfer efficiency of microorganisms during multiple sequential surface contacts with and without gloves has not been formerly investigated. We measured quantity Escherichia coli on fingertips participants after 1-8 inoculated plastic coupons nitrile gloves. A Bayesian approach was used to develop mechanistic model pathogen accretion examine finger...
Cytokines elicit pleiotropic and non-redundant activities despite strong overlap in their usage of receptors, JAKs STATs molecules. We use IL-6 IL-27 to ask how two cytokines activating the same signaling pathway have different biological roles. found that induces more sustained STAT1 phosphorylation than IL-6, with inducing comparable levels STAT3 phosphorylation. Mathematical statistical modeling identified binding GP130, IL-27Rα, as main dynamical processes contributing pSTAT1 by IL-27....
Quantification of the parameters influencing airborne infection risks associated with indoor activities in different settings can help understanding outbreak dynamics and effective implementation mitigation strategies. This is particularly important hospitals, where consequence infections amongst vulnerable individuals be significant. Despite transient occupancy inter-connected nature hospital wards, majority risk models assume steady-state conditions well-mixed air a single zone. We propose...
The Wells-Riley model has been widely used to estimate airborne infection risk, typically from a deterministic point of view (i.e., focusing on the average number infections) or in terms per capita probability infection. Some its main limitations relate considering well-mixed air, steady-state concentration pathogen particular amount time for indoor interaction, and that all individuals are homogeneous behave equally. Here, we revisit model, providing mathematical formalism stochastic...
Summary In this paper, our interest is in the perturbation analysis of level‐dependent quasi‐birth‐and‐death (LD‐QBD) processes, which constitute a wide class structured Markov chains. An LD‐QBD process has special feature that its space states can be by levels (groups states), so tridiagonal‐by‐blocks structure obtained for infinitesimal generator. For these number algorithmic procedures exist literature order to compute several performance measures while exploiting underlying matrix...
Current microbial exposure models assume that exchange follows a concentration gradient during hand-to-surface contacts. Our objectives were to evaluate this assumption using transfer efficiency experiments and model's ability explain changes approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) on these experimental data. Experiments conducted with two phages (MS2, Φ X174) simultaneously study bidirectional transfer. Concentrations the fingertip surface quantified before after fingertip-to-surface Prior...
Abstract In this work, we study the environmental and operational factors that influence airborne transmission of nosocomial infections. We link a deterministic zonal ventilation model for distribution infectious material in hospital ward, with Markovian multicompartment SIS infection individuals within order to conduct parametric on rates their effect epidemic dynamics. Our stochastic includes arrival discharge patients, as well detection outbreak by screening events or due symptoms being...
Recently, Clancy [SIR epidemic models with general infectious period distribution, Statist. Prob. Lett. 85 (2014) 1–5] has shown how SIR epidemics in which individuals’ infection periods are not necessarily exponentially distributed may be modeled terms of a piecewise-deterministic Markov process (PDMP). In this paper, we present more detailed description the underlying PDMP, from analyze population transmission number and probability certain susceptible individual.
Self-contamination during doffing of personal protective equipment (PPE) is a concern for healthcare workers (HCW) following SARS-CoV-2-positive patient care. Staff may subconsciously become contaminated through improper glove removal; so, quantifying this exposure critical safe working procedures. HCW surface contact sequences on respiratory ward were modeled using discrete-time Markov chain for: IV-drip care, blood pressure monitoring, and doctors' rounds. Accretion viral RNA gloves care...
It is often possible to model the dynamics of biological systems as a series discrete transitions between finite set observable states (or compartments). When residence times in each state, or inter-event more generally, are exponentially distributed, then one can write ordinary differential equations, which accurately describe evolution mean quantities. Non-exponential also be experimentally observed, but difficult analyse mathematically. In this paper, we focus on computation first passage...
Over the last years, a number of stochastic models have been proposed for analysing spread nosocomial infections in hospital settings. These often account factors governing dynamics: spontaneous patient colonization, patient–staff contamination/colonization, environmental contamination, cohorting or healthcare workers (HCWs) hand-washing compliance levels. For each model, tailor-designed methods are implemented order to analyse dynamics outbreak, usually by means studying quantities interest...
Mathematical modelling has successfully been used to provide quantitative descriptions of many viral infections, but for the Ebola virus, which requires biosafety level 4 facilities experimentation, can play a crucial role. efforts have primarily focused on in vivo virus kinetics, e.g., animal models, aid development antivirals and vaccines. But, thus far, these studies not yielded detailed specification infection cycle, could foundational description kinetics deeper understanding their...
Genetic differences contribute to variations in the immune response mounted by different individuals a pathogen. Such differential can influence spread of infectious disease, indicating why such diseases impact some populations more than others. Here, we study population-level genetic heterogeneity on epidemic strains H1N1 influenza. For population with known HLA class-I allele frequency and for given viral strain, classify into sub-populations according their level susceptibility infection....
Surface to hand transfer of viruses represents a potential mechanism for human exposure. An experimental process evaluating the touch aerosol-deposited material is described based on controlling surface, tribological, and soft matter components process. A range high-touch surfaces were evaluated. Under standardized parameters (15 N, 1 s), relative humidity (RH) atmosphere around contact event significantly influenced finger-pad. At RH < 40%, from all was <10%. Transfer efficiency...
To monitor severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA contamination in vehicles operating England during the pandemic, to better understand transmission risk of SARS-CoV-2 on public transport.