A5072749955- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- SARS-CoV-2 detection and testing
- Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- Viral Infections and Vectors
- COVID-19 and Mental Health
- Respiratory viral infections research
- COVID-19 Digital Contact Tracing
- Human Mobility and Location-Based Analysis
- Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- COVID-19 and healthcare impacts
- Virology and Viral Diseases
- Disaster Response and Management
- Dengue and Mosquito Control Research
- Immune responses and vaccinations
- Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology
- Herpesvirus Infections and Treatments
- Malaria Research and Control
- Health disparities and outcomes
Indiana University Bloomington
2020-2025
Indiana University
2020-2025
Fondazione Bruno Kessler
2012-2023
University of Miami
2023
Northeastern University
2017-2022
Universidad del Noreste
2019-2021
Kessler Foundation
2010-2020
Boston University
2019-2020
Istituto Superiore di Sanità
2020
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
2020
Motivated by the rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China, we use a global metapopulation transmission model to project impact travel limitations on national and international epidemic. The is calibrated basis internationally reported cases shows that, at start ban from Wuhan 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. quarantine delayed overall epidemic progression only 3 5 days China but more marked effect scale, where...
Intense nonpharmaceutical interventions were put in place China to stop transmission of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). As intensifies other countries, interplay between age, contact patterns, social distancing, susceptibility infection, and COVID-19 dynamics remains unclear. To answer these questions, we analyze survey data for Wuhan Shanghai before during outbreak contact-tracing information from Hunan province. Daily contacts reduced seven- eightfold distancing period, with...
A long-standing question in infectious disease dynamics concerns the role of transmission heterogeneities, which are driven by demography, behavior, and interventions. On basis detailed patient contact-tracing data Hunan, China, we find that 80% secondary infections traced back to 15% severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) primary infections, indicates substantial heterogeneities. Transmission risk scales positively with duration exposure closeness social interactions...
Little is known on how different levels of population heterogeneity and patterns human mobility affect the course pandemic influenza in terms timing impact. By employing a large-scale spatially explicit individual-based model, founded highly detailed model European populations careful analysis air railway transportation data, we provide quantitative measures influence such factors at scale. Our results show that Europe has to be prepared face rapid diffusion influenza, because high...
Abstract Background In recent years large-scale computational models for the realistic simulation of epidemic outbreaks have been used with increased frequency. Methodologies adapt to scale interest and range from very detailed agent-based spatially-structured metapopulation models. One major issue thus concerns what extent geotemporal spreading pattern found by different modeling approaches may differ depend on approximations assumptions used. Methods We provide first time a side-by-side...
Abstract Mathematical and computational modeling approaches are increasingly used as quantitative tools in the analysis forecasting of infectious disease epidemics. The growing need for realism addressing complex public health questions is, however, calling accurate models human contact patterns that govern transmission processes. Here we present a data-driven approach to generate effective population-level matrices by using highly detailed macro (census) micro (survey) data on key...
In the night of February 20, 2020, first case novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was confirmed in Lombardy Region, Italy. week that followed, experienced a very rapid increase number cases. We analyzed 5,830 laboratory-confirmed cases to provide epidemiological characterization COVID-19 outbreak Western Country. Epidemiological data were collected through standardized interviews and their close contacts. demographic backgrounds, dates symptom onset, clinical features, respiratory tract...
Significance The analysis of real epidemiological data has raised issues the adequacy classic homogeneous modeling framework and quantities, such as basic reproduction number in real-world situations. Based on high-quality sociodemographic data, here we generate a multiplex network describing contact pattern Italian Dutch populations. By using microsimulation approach, show that, for epidemics spreading realistic networks, it is not possible to define steady exponential growth phase number....
Having adopted a dynamic zero-COVID strategy to respond SARS-CoV-2 variants with higher transmissibility since August 2021, China is now considering whether, and for how long, this policy can remain in place. The debate has thus shifted towards the identification of mitigation strategies minimizing disruption healthcare system case nationwide epidemic. To aim, we developed an age-structured stochastic compartmental susceptible-latent-infectious-removed-susceptible model transmission...
Infectious disease forecasting is gaining traction in the public health community; however, limited systematic comparisons of model performance exist. Here we present results a synthetic challenge inspired by West African Ebola crisis 2014-2015 and involving 16 international academic teams US government agencies, compare predictive 8 independent modeling approaches. Challenge participants were invited to predict 140 epidemiological targets across 5 different time points 4 outbreaks, each...
In the night of February 20, 2020, first epidemic novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outside Asia was uncovered by identification its patient in Lombardy region, Italy. following weeks, experienced a sudden increase number ascertained infections and strict measures were imposed to contain spread.We analyzed official records cases occurred characterize epidemiology SARS-CoV-2 during early phase outbreak. A line list laboratory-confirmed set up later retrospectively consolidated, using...
To provide global, regional, and national estimates of target population sizes for coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) vaccination to inform country specific immunisation strategies on a global scale.Descriptive study.194 member states the World Health Organization.Target populations covid-19 based characteristics vaccine objectives (maintaining essential core societal services; reducing severe covid-19; symptomatic infections stopping virus transmission).Size vaccination. Estimates use data...
Background On 20 February 2020, a locally acquired coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case was detected in Lombardy, Italy. This the first signal of ongoing transmission severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2) country. The number cases Italy increased rapidly and country became Europe to experience SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. Aim Our aim describe epidemiology dynamics COVID-19 amid control measures. Methods We analysed all RT-PCR-confirmed reported national integrated surveillance system until...
Abstract Several mechanisms driving SARS-CoV-2 transmission remain unclear. Based on individual records of 1178 potential infectors and their 15,648 contacts in Hunan, China, we estimated key parameters. The mean generation time was to be 5.7 (median: 5.5, IQR: 4.5, 6.8) days, with infectiousness peaking 1.8 days before symptom onset, 95% events occurring between 8.8 9.5 after onset. Most occurred during the pre-symptomatic phase (59.2%). susceptibility infection increases age, while...
Solid estimates of the risk developing symptoms and progressing to critical disease in individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are key interpreting 2019 (COVID-19) dynamics, identifying settings segments population where transmission is more likely remain undetected, defining effective control strategies.To estimate association age likelihood illness after SARS-CoV-2 infection.This cohort study analyzed quarantined case contacts, identified...
School-closure policies are considered one of the most promising nonpharmaceutical interventions for mitigating seasonal and pandemic influenza. However, their effectiveness is still debated, primarily due to lack empirical evidence about behavior population during implementation policy. Over course 2015 2016 influenza season in Russia, we performed a diary-based contact survey estimate patterns social interactions before reactive school-closure strategies. We develop an innovative hybrid...
The new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has required the implementation of severe mobility restrictions and social distancing measures worldwide. While these have been proven effective in abating epidemic several countries, it is important to estimate effectiveness testing tracing strategies avoid a potential second wave COVID-19 epidemic. We integrate highly detailed (anonymized, privacy-enhanced) data from mobile devices, with census demographic build agent-based model describe...
Abstract Motivated by the rapid spread of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Mainland China, we use global metapopulation disease transmission model to project impact both domestic and international travel limitations on national epidemic. The is calibrated evidence internationally imported cases before implementation quarantine Wuhan. By assuming generation time 7.5 days, reproduction number estimated be 2.4 [90% CI 2.2-2.6]. median estimate for ban January 23, 2020 58,956 40,759 - 87,471]...
COVID-19 vaccination is being conducted in over 200 countries and regions to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission return a pre-pandemic lifestyle. However, understanding when non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can be lifted as immunity builds up remains key question for policy makers. To address this, we built data-driven model of China. We estimated that, prevent the escalation local outbreaks widespread epidemics, stringent NPIs need remain place at least one year after start vaccination....
In early March 2022, a major outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant spread rapidly throughout Shanghai, China. Here we aimed to provide description epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal transmission dynamics under population-based screening lockdown policies implemented in Shanghai.