Michael Kirchler
A5075178187- Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
- Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies
- Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
- Economic theories and models
- Housing Market and Economics
- Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Auditing, Earnings Management, Governance
- scientometrics and bibliometrics research
- Market Dynamics and Volatility
- Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis
- Ethics in Business and Education
- Corporate Finance and Governance
- Sports Analytics and Performance
- Psychology of Moral and Emotional Judgment
- Stock Market Forecasting Methods
- Mental Health Research Topics
- Data Analysis with R
- Economic Policies and Impacts
- Game Theory and Applications
- Culture, Economy, and Development Studies
- Scientific Computing and Data Management
- Corporate Taxation and Avoidance
- Auction Theory and Applications
- Economic Theory and Institutions
Universität Innsbruck
2016-2025
Management Center Innsbruck
2007-2024
Decision Sciences (United States)
2024
University of Gothenburg
2014-2023
Deutsche Nationalbibliothek
2022
Utrecht University
2018
National University of Singapore
2017
Austrian Academy of Sciences
2014
Another social science looks at itself Experimental economists have joined the reproducibility discussion by replicating selected published experiments from two top-tier journals in economics. Camerer et al. found that two-thirds of 18 studies examined yielded replicable estimates effect size and direction. This proportion is somewhat lower than unaffiliated experts were willing to bet an associated prediction market, but roughly line with expectations sample sizes P values. Science , this...
"We propose to change the default P-value threshold forstatistical significance for claims of new discoveries from 0.05 0.005."
To explore why bubbles frequently emerge in the experimental asset market model of Smith, Suchanek, and Williams (1988), we vary fundamental value process (constant or declining) cash– to–asset ratio increasing). We observe high mispricing treatments with a declining value, while overvaluation emerges when coupled an increasing C/A ratio. A questionnaire reveals that confuses subjects, as they expect to stay constant. Running experiment different context (“stocks depletable gold mine”...
ABSTRACT In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in data‐generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty estimates of parameters. science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses an evidence‐generating (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty—nonstandard (NSEs). study NSEs by letting 164 teams same on data. turn out be sizable, but smaller for more reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer‐review stages reduces NSEs....
Being able to replicate scientific findings is crucial for progress. We 21 systematically selected experimental studies in the social sciences published Nature and Science between 2010 2015. The replications follow analysis plans reviewed by original authors pre-registered prior replications. are high powered, with sample sizes on average about five times higher than studies. find a significant effect same direction as study 13 (62%) studies, size of 50% size. Replicability varies 12 (57%)...
ABSTRACT Rankings are omnipresent in the finance industry, yet literature is silent on how they impact financial professionals' behavior. Using lab‐in‐the‐field experiments with 657 professionals and lab 432 students, we investigate rank incentives affect investment decisions. We find that both tournament increase risk‐taking among underperforming professionals, while only students. This effect robust to experimental frame (investment vs. abstract frame), payoff consequences (own return...
Do individuals intuitively favor certain moral actions over others? This study explores the role of intuitive thinking—induced by time pressure and cognitive load—in judgment behavior. We conduct experiments in three different countries (Sweden, Austria, United States) involving 1,400 subjects. All subjects responded to four trolley type dilemmas dictator games charitable causes. Decisions were made under pressure/time delay or while experiencing load control. Overall we find converging...
The self-concept maintenance theory holds that many people will cheat in order to maximize self-profit, but only the extent they can do so while maintaining a positive self-concept. Mazar, Amir, and Ariely (2008, Experiment 1) gave participants an opportunity incentive on problem-solving task. Prior task, either recalled Ten Commandments (a moral reminder) or 10 books had read high school neutral task). Results were consistent with theory. When given cheat, moral-reminder priming task...
Risk is an integral part of many economic decisions and vitally important in finance. Despite extensive research on decision making under risk, little known about how risks are actually perceived by financial professionals, the key players global markets. In a large-scale survey experiment with 2,213 finance professionals 4,559 laypeople nine countries representing ~50% world’s population more than 60% gross domestic product, we expose participants to return distributions equal expected...
In an experiment with 739 subjects, we study whether and how different interventions might have influence on the degree of moral behavior when subjects make decisions that can generate negative externalities uninvolved parties. Particularly, either take money for themselves or donate it to UNICEF measles vaccines. By considering two fairly institutional regimes—one individual decision making, one a double-auction market—we expose kind robustness check. We find threat monetary punishment...
Summary Data analysis workflows in many scientific domains have become increasingly complex and flexible. To assess the impact of this flexibility on functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) results, same dataset was independently analyzed by 70 teams, testing nine ex-ante hypotheses. The analytic approaches is exemplified fact that no two teams chose identical to analyze data. This resulted sizeable variation hypothesis test even for whose statistical maps were highly correlated at...
Abstract The efficiency of financial markets and their potential to produce bubbles are central topics in academic professional debates. Yet, little is known about the contribution professionals price efficiency. We run 116 experimental with 412 502 students. find that bubble drivers – capital inflows or high initial supply susceptible bubbles, although they more efficient than student markets. In mixed students, also occur, but act as stabilizers. show heterogeneous beliefs drive...
We measure how accurately replication of experimental results can be predicted by black-box statistical models. With data from four large-scale projects in psychology and economics, techniques machine learning, we train predictive models study which variables drive predictable replication. The predicts binary with a cross-validated accuracy rate 70% (AUC 0.77) estimates relative effect sizes Spearman ρ 0.38. level is similar to market-aggregated beliefs peer scientists [1, 2]. power...
We investigate how the experience of extreme events, such as COVID-19 market crash, influence risk-taking behavior. To isolate changes in from other factors, we ran controlled experiments with finance professionals December 2019 and March 2020. observe that their investments experiment were 12 percent lower 2020 than 2019, although price expectations had not changed, they considered experimental asset less risky during crash before. This perceived risk is likely due to adaptive...
Any large dataset can be analyzed in a number of ways, and it is possible that the use different analysis strategies will lead to results conclusions. One way assess whether obtained depend on strategy chosen employ multiple analysts leave each them free follow their own approach. Here, we present consensus-based guidance for conducting reporting such multi-analyst studies, discuss how broader adoption approach has potential strengthen robustness conclusions from analyses datasets basic...
Abstract We analyze the computational reproducibility of more than 1,000 empirical answers to 6 research questions in finance provided by 168 teams. Running researchers’ code on same raw data regenerates exactly results only 52% time. Reproducibility is higher for researchers with better coding skills and those exerting effort. It lower technical questions, complex code, lying tails distribution. Researchers exhibit overconfidence when assessing their own research. provide guidelines discuss...
A typical empirical study involves choosing a sample, research design, and an analysis path. Variation in such choices across studies leads to heterogeneity results that introduce additional layer of uncertainty, limiting the generalizability published scientific findings. We provide framework for studying social sciences divide into population, analytical heterogeneity. Our suggests after accounting heterogeneity, probability tested hypothesis is true average path can be much lower than...
We experimentally compare fast and slow decisions in a series of experiments on financial risk taking three countries involving over 1700 subjects. To manipulate decisions, subjects were randomly allocated to responding within 7 seconds (time pressure) or waiting for at least 20 delay) before responding. control different effects time pressure delay measurement noise, we estimate separate parameters noise preferences random utility framework. find that increases aversion gains losses...