A5070972999- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Privacy, Security, and Data Protection
- COVID-19 and Mental Health
- COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Impact of Technology on Adolescents
- Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Focus Groups and Qualitative Methods
- Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Human Mobility and Location-Based Analysis
- Research in Social Sciences
- Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- Recommender Systems and Techniques
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Social Media and Politics
- Innovation, Technology, and Society
- COVID-19 and healthcare impacts
- COVID-19 Digital Contact Tracing
- COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Technology Use by Older Adults
- Infection Control and Ventilation
- COVID-19 Impact on Reproduction
- Misinformation and Its Impacts
- Migration, Health and Trauma
World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe
2025
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
2020-2024
University of London
2020-2023
Hasselt University
2022-2023
University of Antwerp
2023
Institut Pasteur
2023
ISI Foundation
2022
University of Cambridge
2021
Gates Foundation
2020
Public Health England
2020
An outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has led to 95 333 confirmed cases as March 5, 2020. Understanding the early transmission dynamics infection and evaluating effectiveness control measures is crucial for assessing potential sustained occur in new areas. Combining a mathematical model SARS-CoV-2 with four datasets from within outside Wuhan, we estimated how Wuhan varied between December, 2019, February, We used these estimates assess human-to-human...
UK variant transmission Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has the capacity to generate variants with major genomic changes. The B.1.1.7 (also known as VOC 202012/01) many mutations that alter virus attachment and entry into human cells. Using a variety of statistical dynamic modeling approaches, Davies et al. characterized spread in United Kingdom. authors found is 43 90% more transmissible than predecessor lineage but saw no clear evidence for change disease...
BackgroundNon-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the UK. Projecting size an unmitigated epidemic and potential effect different control measures has crucial support evidence-based policy making during early stages epidemic. This study assesses impact for mitigating burden COVID-19 UK.MethodsWe used a stochastic age-structured model explore range intervention scenarios, tracking 66·4...
Abstract Background To mitigate and slow the spread of COVID-19, many countries have adopted unprecedented physical distancing policies, including UK. We evaluate whether these measures might be sufficient to control epidemic by estimating their impact on reproduction number ( R 0 , average secondary cases generated per case). Methods asked a representative sample UK adults about contact patterns previous day. The questionnaire was conducted online via email recruitment documents age...
A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England November 2020 and is rapidly spreading towards fixation. Using a variety of statistical dynamic modelling approaches, we estimate that this variant has 43–90% (range 95% credible intervals 38–130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. fitted two-strain transmission model shows will lead to large resurgences COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure...
SummaryBackgroundNational immunisation programmes globally are at risk of suspension due to the severe health system constraints and physical distancing measures in place mitigate ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed compare benefits sustaining routine childhood Africa with acquiring acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection through visiting vaccination service delivery points.MethodsWe considered a high-impact scenario low-impact approximate child deaths that could be...
<ns4:p><ns4:bold>Background:</ns4:bold> Interventions are now in place worldwide to reduce transmission of the novel coronavirus. Assessing temporal variations different countries is essential for evaluating effectiveness public health interventions and impact changes policy.</ns4:p><ns4:p> <ns4:bold>Methods:</ns4:bold> We use case notification data generate daily estimates time-dependent reproduction number regions countries. Our modelling framework, based on open source tooling, accounts...
Abstract Background Asymptomatic or subclinical SARS-CoV-2 infections are often unreported, which means that confirmed case counts may not accurately reflect underlying epidemic dynamics. Understanding the level of ascertainment (the ratio symptomatic cases to true number individuals) and undetected progression is crucial informing COVID-19 response planning, including introduction relaxation control measures. Estimating over time allows for accurate estimates specific outcomes such as...
Abstract Background To assess the viability of isolation and contact tracing to control onwards transmission from imported cases 2019-nCoV. Methods We developed a stochastic model, parameterised 2019-nCoV outbreak. used model quantify potential effectiveness at controlling 2019 nCoV-like pathogen. considered scenarios that varied in: number initial cases; basic reproduction R 0 ; delay symptom onset isolation; probability contacts were traced; proportion occurred before onset, subclinical...
<ns4:p><ns4:bold>Background:</ns4:bold>Assessing temporal variations in transmission different countries is essential for monitoring the epidemic, evaluating effectiveness of public health interventions and estimating impact changes policy.</ns4:p><ns4:p/><ns4:p><ns4:bold>Methods:</ns4:bold>We use case death notification data to generate daily estimates time-varying reproduction number globally, regionally, nationally, subnationally over a 12-week rolling window. Our modelling framework,...
Background During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, United Kingdom government imposed public health policies in England to reduce social contacts hopes of curbing virus transmission. We conducted a repeated cross-sectional study measure contact patterns weekly from March 2020 2021 estimate impact these policies, covering 3 national lockdowns interspersed by periods less restrictive policies. Methods and findings The survey data were collected using online surveys...
Abstract Background Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK. Projecting size an unmitigated epidemic and potential effect different control measures has critical support evidence-based policymaking during early stages epidemic. Methods We used a stochastic age-structured model explore range intervention scenarios, including introduction school closures, social distancing, shielding elderly groups, self-isolation symptomatic cases,...
The health impact of COVID-19 may differ in African settings as compared to countries Europe or China due demographic, epidemiological, environmental and socio-economic factors. We evaluated strategies reduce SARS-CoV-2 burden countries, so support decisions that balance minimising mortality, protecting services safeguarding livelihoods. used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered mathematical model, stratified by age, predict the evolution epidemics three representing range age...
Understanding changes in human mobility the early stages of COVID-19 pandemic is crucial for assessing impacts travel restrictions designed to reduce disease spread. Here, relying on data from mainland China, we investigate spatio-temporal characteristics between 1st January and March 2020, discuss their public health implications. An outbound surge Wuhan before were implemented was also observed across China due Lunar New Year, indicating that holiday may have played a larger role compared...
Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has shown how a newly emergent communicable disease can lay considerable burden on public health. To avoid system collapse, governments have resorted to several social distancing measures. In Belgium, this included lockdown and following period of phased re-opening. A representative sample Belgian adults was asked about their contact behaviour from mid-April the beginning August, during different stages intervention measures in Belgium. Use personal protection...
Abstract Background Many low- and middle-income countries have implemented control measures against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, it is not clear to what extent these explain the low numbers of recorded COVID-19 cases deaths in Africa. One main aims reduce respiratory pathogen transmission through direct contact with others. In this study, we collect data from residents informal settlements around Nairobi, Kenya, assess if changed patterns, estimate impact changes on basic...
England's COVID-19 response transitioned from a national lockdown to localised interventions. In rising cases, these were supplemented by restrictions on contacts (the Rule of Six), then 10 pm closing for bars and restaurants, encouragement work home. These quickly followed 3-tier system applying different in localities. As cases continued rise, second was declared. We used survey quantify the impact epidemiologically relevant contacts.